AAPL
Apple Inc.NasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for AAPL; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$451.4B
Diluted shares
14,725,873,000
Net cash
-$14.2B
Bear
low confidence$90.36
IV / share
-71.3% vs $314.86
Revenue growth3.0% → 2.5% → 2.0% → 1.5% → 1.0%medium
Assumes the current FY2026 double-digit iPhone momentum fades into low-single-digit growth as hardware saturates and China/regulatory pressure weighs.
Operating margin29.5%medium
Margin compresses below the FY2025 level on tariff/component costs and a less favorable services mix in a weak-demand scenario.
Tax rate17.0%medium
Bear case embeds higher global-minimum-tax and reduced foreign-rate benefit, pushing above the reported effective rate.
Reinvestment rate10.0%low
Slow growth requires little incremental capital, but low ROIC-adjusted efficiency in a weak scenario still consumes ~10% of after-tax EBIT.
Terminal growth1.5%medium
A mature, ex-growth Apple settles near sub-inflation perpetual growth.
Base
medium confidence$121.08
IV / share
-61.5% vs $314.86
Revenue growth7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0%high
Consensus path decelerates from strong current-cycle momentum toward mid-single-digit growth as the installed base and services mature.
Operating margin32.0%high
Holds roughly at the reported FY2025 level as services growth offsets hardware cost pressure.
Tax rate15.5%high
Uses the most recent reported effective rate as the mid-case steady state.
Reinvestment rate15.0%medium
Moderate growth funded with limited capital given Apple's capital-light, high-return model.
Terminal growth2.5%high
Perpetual growth roughly tracks long-term nominal economic growth.
Bull
low confidence$146.09
IV / share
-53.6% vs $314.86
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 6.5% → 5.0%medium
Assumes the AI-driven iPhone upgrade supercycle and services expansion sustain elevated growth before normalizing.
Operating margin34.5%medium
A higher-margin services and AI-monetization mix lifts operating margin toward recent quarterly peaks.
Tax rate15.0%medium
Favorable tax planning and continued foreign-rate/R&D benefits hold the effective rate slightly below the reported level.
Reinvestment rate22.0%low
Sustaining a supercycle in AI hardware/services demands greater capex, R&D, and acquisitions than the base case.
Terminal growth3.0%medium
A durable ecosystem and AI monetization support perpetual growth modestly above inflation.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD DCF and stood at 4.63% mid-July 2026.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied premium is the current market-consistent ERP for US equities.
Most recent closing price used to compare intrinsic value against market price.
Generated 7/15/2026, 4:29:21 AM · pipeline v1.0.0