AMZN
AMAZON COM INCNasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for AMZN; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$742.8B
Diluted shares
10,874,000,000
Net cash
$21.2B
Bear
medium confidence$12.72
IV / share
-94.9% vs $247.23
Revenue growth9.5% → 8.0% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%medium
Starts at the low 2026 analyst revenue-growth estimate and fades as cloud growth and retail growth normalize below current Q1 momentum.
Operating margin12.0%medium
Keeps margins below current TTM/Q1 levels to reflect AI infrastructure costs, tariff risk, and lower AWS contribution than consensus.
Tax rate25.0%medium
Uses a rate above the 0.24 market input to allow for less favorable geographic mix and reduced investment-tax benefits.
Reinvestment rate90.0%medium
Assumes elevated AI and fulfillment capex consumes most after-tax operating profit, consistent with depressed recent free cash flow.
Terminal growth2.5%high
Uses a mature-company nominal terminal growth rate below the current Treasury yield and below the base case.
Base
medium confidence$37.16
IV / share
-85.0% vs $247.23
Revenue growth14.8% → 11.5% → 10.0% → 8.5% → 7.0%medium
Anchors year one to the 2026 consensus growth estimate and then fades toward high-single-digit growth as scale rises.
Operating margin14.5%medium
Assumes modest operating leverage from AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency while allowing for continuing AI infrastructure spend.
Tax rate24.0%medium
Uses the current market-model effective tax assumption for Amazon.
Reinvestment rate78.0%medium
Reflects heavy but partly productive reinvestment as AI capex remains high while operating cash flow scales.
Terminal growth3.0%high
Applies a mature nominal growth assumption below the risk-free rate but above the bear case.
Bull
low confidence$73.08
IV / share
-70.4% vs $247.23
Revenue growth17.2% → 14.5% → 12.5% → 10.5% → 8.5%medium
Uses the high 2026 analyst growth estimate and extends stronger growth from AWS AI demand, ads, and marketplace mix.
Operating margin17.0%medium
Matches an upside case where AWS and advertising mix expansion lifts consolidated profitability toward KeyBanc's 2028 implied margin.
Tax rate23.0%low
Assumes slightly better tax efficiency than base from geographic mix and investment-related deductions.
Reinvestment rate68.0%medium
Assumes AI capex remains large but produces better incremental returns, reducing reinvestment intensity versus base.
Terminal growth3.5%medium
Uses the highest terminal growth case while keeping it below the current long-term risk-free benchmark.
Market inputs researched
Generated 7/19/2026, 10:42:27 AM · pipeline v1.0.0