GE
GENERAL ELECTRIC CONYSEThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for GE; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$50.6B
Diluted shares
1,047,000,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$71.90
IV / share
-80.0% vs $360.07
Revenue growth8.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0% → 3.0%medium
Assumes the current aftermarket surge (Q1'26 +24.7%, Q2'26 +21.1% YoY) is a post-COVID catch-up peak that normalizes fast toward underlying air-traffic growth as spare-parts pricing and shop-visit volumes decelerate.
Operating margin20.0%medium
Margins stay roughly at today's level or slightly below on a total-revenue basis because LEAP shop-visit losses, GE9X introduction costs and installed-base mix persist longer than management expects.
Tax rate21.0%medium
Assumes GE's unusually low effective rate fully converges to the US statutory rate as legacy credits, R&D benefits and foreign-mix advantages run off.
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
Slower growth still requires committed capacity, supply-chain and new-program spending, so each dollar of growth costs more capital and cash conversion weakens from today's ~100%.
Terminal growth2.0%medium
In a downside world the installed-base annuity grows only with inflation as competition and airline cost pressure cap real pricing.
Base
medium confidence$118.29
IV / share
-67.1% vs $360.07
Revenue growth14.0% → 11.0% → 9.0% → 8.0% → 7.0%high
Blends the very strong in-year momentum (TTM revenue $50.6B, up from $45.9B in FY2025) with a natural deceleration toward the ~4% long-run traffic growth Boeing and Airbus forecast, still delivering roughly double-digit average growth.
Operating margin24.0%medium
Assumes today's LEAP-services and GE9X drags are timing-related and reverse later in the decade, letting the high-margin spare-parts and services mix lift company margins several points above current levels.
Tax rate19.0%medium
Assumes partial normalization from GE's historically low effective rate (FY21-25 average ~12%) toward statutory as one-off benefits fade but R&D and export incentives persist.
Reinvestment rate30.0%medium
Roughly a third of after-tax profit is plowed back into capacity, tooling and new-program development, consistent with GE's asset-light aftermarket model and ~100% free-cash-flow conversion.
Terminal growth2.5%high
A mature but structurally growing installed base should compound modestly above inflation and roughly in line with nominal global GDP in perpetuity.
Bull
low confidence$182.89
IV / share
-49.2% vs $360.07
Revenue growth18.0% → 15.0% → 13.0% → 11.0% → 9.0%medium
Assumes the current high-teens-to-20%+ growth rate persists longer because an aging global fleet, delayed new-aircraft deliveries and a record services backlog force more and higher-value shop visits than consensus models.
Operating margin28.0%low
Assumes LEAP shop visits swing from loss-making to strongly accretive while spare-parts pricing power and defense volume push margins well above the historical GE Aerospace range.
Tax rate16.0%medium
Assumes GE largely sustains its structurally low effective rate through R&D credits, export incentives and foreign earnings mix, with only modest drift upward.
Reinvestment rate26.0%low
Growth is driven mostly by servicing engines already installed, which needs relatively little new capital, so a smaller share of profit is reinvested and more converts to cash.
Terminal growth3.0%medium
A duopoly position in narrowbody engines with a 20+ year annuity per engine supports perpetual growth at the upper end of the defensible range.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated long-horizon DCF.
GE's five-year beta is inflated by the pre-2024 conglomerate breakup, so the raw 1.38 is shaded slightly toward the lower betas typical of aerospace OEM peers.
Uses the forward-looking implied premium rather than a historical average, consistent with current market pricing.
Most recent available close, used as the market reference against which intrinsic value is compared.
Generated 8/3/2026, 7:36:17 AM · pipeline v1.0.0