GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.NasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Out of date. Financials have been published or corrected since this valuation was generated. An admin can recalculate it to fold in the new financials.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for GOOGL; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$422.5B
Diluted shares
12,238,000,000
Net cash
$47.3B
Bear
low confidence$109.32
IV / share
-69.6% vs $359.07
Revenue growth9.0% → 8.0% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0%medium
Assumes AI-driven query erosion, antitrust remedies, and ad-cycle softness pull growth well below the ~15% 3-year consensus and decelerate it toward GDP.
Operating margin29.0%medium
Heavy AI/data-center depreciation and cloud price competition compress margins below the 32–36% recent range.
Tax rate19.0%medium
Assumes global minimum-tax and mix shifts push the effective rate above the recent ~17% level.
Reinvestment rate24.0%low
Slower growth justifies pulling back reinvestment even as AI infrastructure spend stays elevated.
Terminal growth2.5%medium
A mature, disrupted core grows only modestly above long-run inflation in perpetuity.
Base
medium confidence$161.83
IV / share
-54.9% vs $359.07
Revenue growth14.0% → 12.0% → 11.0% → 9.0% → 8.0%high
Tracks the ~15% near-term consensus then decelerates as the law of large numbers and search maturity set in.
Operating margin34.0%high
Cloud margin expansion (18%→33%) offsets AI capex depreciation, holding margins near recent consolidated levels.
Tax rate17.0%high
Anchors on the company's recent ~17% effective tax rate.
Reinvestment rate30.0%medium
Sustained AI/data-center and cloud buildout requires elevated reinvestment consistent with ~11% average growth.
Terminal growth3.5%high
Slightly above trend nominal GDP, reflecting durable ad + cloud franchises but capped below the risk-free rate.
Bull
low confidence$206.88
IV / share
-42.4% vs $359.07
Revenue growth18.0% → 16.0% → 14.0% → 12.0% → 10.0%medium
Assumes Gemini/AI monetization and a $460B cloud backlog sustain mid-teens growth above consensus.
Operating margin38.0%medium
Operating leverage from AI efficiency and a scaling high-margin cloud business lifts margins above recent peaks.
Tax rate16.0%medium
Favorable R&D/IP mix keeps the effective rate near the low end of the historical range.
Reinvestment rate35.0%low
Aggressive but high-return AI/cloud reinvestment funds the superior growth path.
Terminal growth4.0%medium
Enduring AI/cloud leadership supports terminal growth near, but not exceeding, the risk-free rate.
Market inputs researched
Generated 7/4/2026, 3:45:34 PM · pipeline v1.0.0