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Airbnb, Inc.

Nasdaq: ABNB·San Francisco, California·

Price
$160.65
Base IV
$92.56
Your value
$92.56
-42.4%

Valuation snapshot

Above bull caseOut of date
$160.65
price, off scale
$92.56
base IV/share
Bear $51.54Bull $140.94

Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 1, 2026 · Valuation Aug 16, 2026.

Researched byClaude Opus 5

Track record

Reported financials are not available yet.

Why the gap?

At $160.65 the market is pricing Airbnb, Inc. as if revenue grows 26.9% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 11.6% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.

Implied by price

+26.9%

revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched

Assumed here

+11.6%

researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance

Or, growth held

46.8%

operating margin reproduces the price, vs 26.0% assumed

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.

Your valuation

Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.

  • 01 Revenue growth14.5%
  • 02 Operating margin26.0%
  • 03 Risk and beta1.07
  • 04 Long-run growth2.5%
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What drives the base case

All three cases →

After growth slowed steadily from 18% in 2023 to 10% in 2025, Airbnb reaccelerated to about 17% in the first half of 2026 and management raised its outlook for the year to at least mid-teens growth with better profitability. Part of that lift is a weaker dollar and higher nightly prices, since actual nights booked rose 10%, so this case assumes growth eases back toward high single digits over five years. Newer lines like hotels and experiences cushion the slowdown as the core homes business matures. Profit per dollar of sales improves somewhat, helped by the company's disclosure that AI now handles nearly half of customer-support issues and support cost per booking fell about 16%.

What shapes the assumptions

No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.

How confident is this estimate?

Quality checks
53/100Moderate

Some of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.

  • Scenario dispersion5.2
  • Terminal-value dependency3.0
  • Historical stability4.9
  • Margin predictability3.0

Why the number moved

No prior valuation bridge is available yet. Future recalculations will explain what moved.

Explore StockValuer's full research

All cases, evidence, value drivers, sensitivity, quality checks, and calculation detail.

Financials

Reported quarters with derived margins, cash flow, and net cash.

Methodology

How reported facts, researched judgments and deterministic math are kept apart.

Base estimate

$92.56 -42.4%

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