ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 16, 2026
What drives ABNB's base case?
base-case thesisAfter growth slowed steadily from 18% in 2023 to 10% in 2025, Airbnb reaccelerated to about 17% in the first half of 2026 and management raised its outlook for the year to at least mid-teens growth with better profitability. Part of that lift is a weaker dollar and higher nightly prices, since actual nights booked rose 10%, so this case assumes growth eases back toward high single digits over five years. Newer lines like hotels and experiences cushion the slowdown as the core homes business matures. Profit per dollar of sales improves somewhat, helped by the company's disclosure that AI now handles nearly half of customer-support issues and support cost per booking fell about 16%.
What shapes the assumptions
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to at least mid-teens growth
Guided full-year revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Nights booked growing 10% versus 17% revenue growth
Unit demand vs. ADR contribution
Lowers revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA margin guided to at least 35.5%, up from 35%
Adjusted EBITDA margin
Raises operating margin
Trailing free cash flow of $4.536B on an asset-light marketplace
Free cash flow margin and capex intensity
Lowers reinvestment
Hotels growing about three times faster than homes
Category mix and addressable market
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 30.8% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 24.4% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 53.9% operating margin, against the 26.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 50.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$13.2B
Diluted shares
597,000,000
Net cash
$4.3B
Bear
low confidence$51.54
IV / share
-72.0% vs $184.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $12.26
- Terminal value
- $32.01
- Net cash
- $7.28
- Intrinsic value / share
- $51.54
62.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
bear revenue growth (avg 7%) runs well above the trailing -9% trend
Revenue growth10.0% → 8.0% → 6.5% → 5.0% → 4.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the four-year deceleration in reported annual growth (77% in 2021 to 10.3% in 2025), this case treats the 2026 reacceleration to ~17% as largely price- and currency-driven — management's own Q3 guide flags roughly three points of FX tailwind and Q2 GBV of $27.2B grew 16% on only 10% nights growth — so unit demand growth of ~10% fades toward low-single digits as room-night share matures, ADR mean-reverts, and the FX benefit lapses.
Why this confidence: Five consecutive years of reported growth deceleration give a strong base rate ↑, Nights-booked growth of 10% vs. 17% revenue growth is directly disclosed and hard to dispute ↑, Current management guidance points to faster growth than assumed here ↓, Five-year horizon for travel demand and FX is inherently uncertain ↓
Evidence for
- Nights and Seats Booked grew only 10% year over year in Q2 2026 while revenue grew 17%, meaning the majority of revenue growth came from ADR and mix rather than incremental unit demand.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Airbnb's Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $4.69–4.77B (15–17% growth) is explicitly stated as inclusive of an approximate three-percentage-point FX tailwind after hedging, a benefit that does not recur indefinitely.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Reported annual revenue growth decelerated every year from 2021 through 2025 (77.4%, 40.2%, 18.1%, 11.9%, 10.3%), the base-rate pattern for a maturing marketplace.[Airbnb reported annual revenue, FY2020–FY2025]· primary
Evidence against
- First-time booker growth accelerated to 11% in Q2 2026, the highest rate in four years, led by Gen Z — evidence the top of the demand funnel is widening, not narrowing.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
- Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance from low-to-mid-teens to at least mid-teens, the opposite direction from the fade assumed here.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Operating margin20.0%medium
How derived: Weighting the reported quarterly operating margins gives roughly 20.8% for FY2025 and roughly 20.8% on a trailing basis through Q2 FY2026 — essentially flat despite faster revenue growth — so this case assumes the step-up in AI, sales-and-marketing, and new-category spend management describes fully offsets scale benefits and margin settles at 0.20, near the current run rate.
Why this confidence: Anchored to two independent realized periods (FY2025 and TTM) that agree at ~20.8% ↑, Assumes no margin expansion, directly contradicted by raised EBITDA-margin guidance ↓, Stock-based compensation is a large, hard-to-forecast wedge between adjusted and GAAP margin ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 operating margin was only 3.2% and Q4 2025 was 9.7%, showing that off-peak quarters carry a heavy fixed and marketing cost load that caps the full-year average near 20%.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Management states that updated guidance assumes increased AI spending and continued investment in sales and marketing, which partially offsets efficiency gains elsewhere.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded over 100 basis points year over year to 35% in Q2 2026 and full-year guidance was raised to at least 35.5%, indicating underlying operating leverage rather than stagnation.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Customer support cost per booking fell about 16% year over year as the AI assistant resolved nearly 45% of issues without a human agent, a structural cost-to-serve improvement.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Tax rate26.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the 21% U.S. federal statutory rate, this case adds state taxes plus the drag Airbnb itself has disclosed — a $69M Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax charge in Q1 2026 — and assumes rising foreign digital-services and destination-country taxation on a business whose bookings are majority non-U.S., landing at 0.26.
Why this confidence: U.S. federal statutory rate of 21% is a fixed, known floor ↑, Company-disclosed CAMT charge is a concrete, primary-sourced upward driver ↑, Airbnb's historical effective rate is highly volatile due to valuation-allowance and one-time items ↓, Multi-jurisdiction digital-tax policy over five years is unpredictable ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb recorded a $69 million Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax adjustment that temporarily elevated its effective tax rate in Q1 2026.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Airbnb describes the CAMT charge as a temporary elevation of the effective rate rather than a permanent step-up, implying a lower normalized rate.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%low
How derived: Defined as the share of after-tax operating profit reinvested, the starting fact is Airbnb's asset-light model — TTM free cash flow of $4.536B on roughly $12–13B of revenue leaves almost no capex requirement — but this case assumes slowing organic growth forces materially higher spend on marketing capitalized as growth investment, AI infrastructure, and acquisitions to defend share, so 0.22 of NOPAT is consumed rather than the low-teens rate the current model implies.
Why this confidence: Reinvestment is an analyst construct, not a line item Airbnb reports ↓, Assumed step-up in defensive spend is a judgment with no direct disclosure supporting the magnitude ↓, Reported free-cash-flow margin gives a hard upper bound on how much cash is actually being consumed ↑
Evidence for
- Management's raised 2026 guidance explicitly assumes increased AI spending, and sales-and-marketing investment is called out as a partial offset to margin expansion.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Trailing-twelve-month Free Cash Flow reached $4.536 billion with a 64% free-cash-flow margin in Q1 2026, evidence that the platform converts profit to cash with very little reinvestment.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- AI-driven development cut concept-to-launch time by up to 60% and raised features shipped by nearly 80% year over year, suggesting Airbnb can add capability without proportionally more spend.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Terminal growth1.8%medium
How derived: Beginning from the observed multi-year fade in Airbnb's reported growth, this case assumes that by the terminal year short-term rentals are a fully penetrated, regulated category growing below overall nominal GDP as city-level restrictions and hotel/OTA competition cap unit expansion, giving 0.018 — below the roughly 4.6% ten-year Treasury yield, as a perpetual rate must be.
Why this confidence: Constrained below the observed risk-free rate, a standard discipline on perpetual growth ↑, Company's own multi-year deceleration supports a sub-GDP terminal rate ↑, Perpetuity assumptions are unobservable and dominate terminal value ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb's reported revenue growth fell from 18.1% in 2023 to 11.9% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2025, a consistent maturation trajectory toward economy-like growth.[Airbnb reported annual revenue, FY2020–FY2025]· primary
Evidence against
- Airbnb's hotel offering is growing roughly three times faster than the homes business and 35% of first-time hotel guests return to book a home, suggesting the addressable market is still expanding rather than saturating.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Base
medium confidence$92.56
IV / share
-49.7% vs $184.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $20.34
- Terminal value
- $64.95
- Net cash
- $7.28
- Intrinsic value / share
- $92.56
70.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
base revenue growth (avg 12%) runs well above the trailing -9% trend
Revenue growth14.5% → 13.0% → 11.5% → 10.0% → 9.0%high
How derived: Year one is set at 0.145 to match management's own raised full-year guidance of at least mid-teens growth and the 15–17% Q3 guide, then growth steps down about 1.5 points a year as the FX tailwind lapses and the 10% nights-booked run rate reasserts itself, partly cushioned by hotels and Experiences, landing at 0.09 by year five.
Why this confidence: Year one is anchored directly to management's own raised full-year guidance ↑, Two consecutive reported quarters of 16–18% growth confirm the starting point ↑, Five-year fade path beyond guidance is a judgment, not disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance from low-to-mid-teens to at least mid-teens and guided Q3 revenue to $4.69–4.77B, or 15–17% growth.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Q1 2026 revenue grew 17.9% and Q2 2026 grew 16.5%, two consecutive quarters of reacceleration from the 9.7–12.7% range seen through 2025.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Q2 2026 GBV grew 16% to $27.2 billion on continued strong demand plus a moderate ADR increase, indicating growth is not purely price-driven.[Airbnb Q2 2026 financial results]· primary
Evidence against
- Nights and Seats Booked grew only 10% in Q2 2026, well below the 17% revenue growth, so sustaining mid-teens revenue growth requires ADR and mix to keep contributing.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Roughly three percentage points of guided Q3 growth is an FX tailwind after hedging, which will not repeat if the dollar stabilizes.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Operating margin26.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the trailing GAAP operating margin of roughly 21% and management's raised adjusted EBITDA margin guide of at least 35.5%, the roughly 14-point gap is mostly stock-based compensation and depreciation; assuming that gap narrows by several points as SBC grows slower than a mid-teens revenue line and AI-driven support costs keep falling, GAAP operating margin settles near 0.26.
Why this confidence: Company guides adjusted EBITDA margin explicitly, bounding the GAAP outcome ↑, Documented structural cost decline in customer support per booking ↑, Requires an assumption about stock-based compensation trajectory that is not guided ↓, Quarterly GAAP margin swings from 3% to 40% make a single target hard to pin ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to at least 35.5% from 35%, with Q2 margin expanding more than 100 basis points year over year on cost efficiencies in operations, support, and product development.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Customer support cost per booking declined about 16% year over year as the AI assistant resolved nearly 45% of issues without a human agent.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Reported GAAP operating margin was only 3.2% in Q1 2026 and 21.0% in Q2 2026, and the trailing-twelve-month figure of roughly 21% has not yet expanded, so 26% requires improvement not yet realized.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion was partially offset by continued investment in sales and marketing, and guidance assumes increased AI spending.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: Beginning with the 21% federal statutory rate, this adds a few points for U.S. state taxes and the foreign and CAMT drag Airbnb has actually recorded — a $69M CAMT adjustment in Q1 2026 — while excluding the non-recurring valuation-allowance swings that distorted prior years, giving a normalized 0.24.
Why this confidence: Anchored to the known 21% statutory rate plus a disclosed CAMT item ↑, Airbnb's reported effective rate has swung widely on one-time deferred-tax items ↓, Single primary filing is the main evidence source ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb disclosed a $69 million Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax adjustment in Q1 2026, confirming its cash-tax profile now sits above the bare 21% federal rate.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Airbnb characterized the CAMT effect as a temporary elevation of the effective rate, so a normalized rate could sit closer to the low 20s.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate15.0%medium
How derived: Taken as the share of after-tax operating profit reinvested, the starting fact is that Airbnb converts nearly all operating profit into cash — $4.536B trailing free cash flow with negligible hard capex on an asset-light marketplace — so this case reinvests only 0.15 of NOPAT to fund AI infrastructure, hotel and Experiences supply build-out, and periodic tuck-in acquisitions.
Why this confidence: Company reports free cash flow directly, tightly bounding true reinvestment ↑, Asset-light model is structural, not cyclical ↑, Acquisition and AI capex intensity over five years is not disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- Free Cash Flow was $1.704 billion in Q1 2026 at a 64% margin, with trailing-twelve-month Free Cash Flow of $4.536 billion, demonstrating very low capital intensity.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Airbnb does not own the homes it lists; supply growth is funded by hosts, not by Airbnb's balance sheet.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's raised 2026 guidance explicitly assumes increased AI spending, which raises the ongoing investment required to sustain growth.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: Starting from a business that still grew 10.3% in 2025 and ~17% in the first half of 2026, this case assumes that by the terminal year Airbnb grows roughly in line with long-run nominal economic and global travel growth at 0.025 — above the bear's saturation view because hotels and Experiences extend the runway, but comfortably below the ten-year Treasury yield as a perpetual rate requires.
Why this confidence: Kept well below the observed risk-free rate, a standard perpetuity discipline ↑, Consistent with long-run nominal economic growth, a widely used anchor ↑, Terminal-period conditions are unobservable and dominate the valuation ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb's expansion into hotels is growing roughly three times faster than the homes business, extending the category runway beyond pure short-term rentals.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Reported annual growth fell from 18.1% in 2023 to 10.3% in 2025, showing the core business decelerating toward maturity faster than a durable 2.5% floor might suggest is comfortable.[Airbnb reported annual revenue, FY2020–FY2025]· primary
Bull
low confidence$140.94
IV / share
-23.4% vs $184.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $28.77
- Terminal value
- $104.88
- Net cash
- $7.28
- Intrinsic value / share
- $140.94
74.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull revenue growth (avg 14%) runs well above the trailing -9% trend
Revenue growth17.0% → 16.0% → 14.5% → 13.0% → 11.5%medium
How derived: Starting from the two reported quarters of reacceleration in FY2026 (17.9% and 16.5%) and the raised at-least-mid-teens guide, this case assumes the drivers behind that reacceleration are structural rather than transient — first-time booker growth at a four-year high of 11%, hotels compounding roughly three times faster than homes, and an AI-accelerated product cadence shipping nearly 80% more features — so growth holds at high-teens and decays only slowly to 11.5%.
Why this confidence: Two reported quarters of 16–18% growth establish the starting level ↑, Specific disclosed leading indicators (first-time bookers, hotel nights) support durability ↑, Path runs above management's stated guidance range ↓, Key supporting data points come from call commentary rather than audited filings ↓
Evidence for
- First-time booker growth accelerated to 11% in Q2 2026, the highest rate in four years, driven particularly by the Gen Z cohort.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
- Hotel nights are growing roughly three times faster than the homes business, and 35% of first-time hotel guests return to book a home — a cross-sell flywheel.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
- Nights and Seats Booked growth of 10% in Q2 2026 accelerated from Q1 2026, indicating improving unit demand rather than price-only growth.[Airbnb Q2 2026 financial results]· primary
Evidence against
- Airbnb's own guidance tops out at 'at least mid-teens' for 2026 and 15–17% for Q3, below the sustained high-teens path assumed here.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- About three percentage points of guided Q3 growth comes from FX after hedging, so the underlying constant-currency rate is closer to low-teens.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Operating margin31.0%medium
How derived: The starting fact is that Airbnb's peak quarter already prints a GAAP operating margin near 40% (Q3 2025) and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin is guided above 35.5%; this case assumes AI structurally removes support and product-development cost — support cost per booking already down about 16% — while stock-based compensation grows far slower than a low-teens revenue line, so GAAP operating margin converges to 0.31.
Why this confidence: Peak-quarter GAAP margin near 40% proves the cost structure can scale ↑, Company-guided adjusted EBITDA margin above 35.5% caps the plausible range from above ↑, Requires a ten-point improvement over the realized trailing margin ↓, Depends on an unguided assumption that stock-based compensation decelerates ↓
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 21% to $1.3 billion with margin expanding over 100 basis points to 35%, and full-year guidance was raised to at least 35.5%.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
- Customer support cost per booking fell about 16% year over year with the AI assistant resolving nearly 45% of issues without a human agent, and AI cut concept-to-launch time by up to 60%.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
- Airbnb's seasonal peak quarter has already demonstrated a GAAP operating margin of 39.7% (Q3 2025), showing the model's structural ceiling is high.[Airbnb Q3 2025 reported operating results]· primary
Evidence against
- Full-year GAAP operating margin has been stuck near 21% in FY2025 and on a trailing basis through Q2 2026, roughly ten points below this target.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Margin expansion is being partially offset by continued sales-and-marketing investment, and guidance assumes higher AI spending.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: Starting from the 21% U.S. federal statutory rate, this case assumes the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax drag Airbnb disclosed in Q1 2026 is genuinely temporary as the company describes, and that R&D credits and foreign-derived income deductions offset state and foreign taxes, holding the long-run rate at the statutory 0.21.
Why this confidence: The 21% federal statutory rate is a hard, known reference point ↑, Assuming zero net state and foreign drag is aggressive and unsupported by the filings ↓, Airbnb's reported effective rate has been highly volatile year to year ↓, Five-year international tax policy path is unknowable ↓
Evidence for
- Airbnb characterized the $69 million Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax adjustment as temporarily elevating the Q1 2026 effective tax rate, implying a lower normalized rate.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Airbnb is actually paying Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax on top of federal tax, and its majority-international booking base exposes it to state and foreign digital-services taxes above the 21% statutory floor.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate10.0%medium
How derived: Taken as the share of after-tax operating profit reinvested, the base fact is a 64% quarterly free-cash-flow margin and $4.536B trailing free cash flow on a platform that owns no lodging inventory; this case assumes AI further reduces the cost of building product — concept-to-launch time down up to 60% with nearly 80% more features shipped — so Airbnb funds growth with just 0.10 of NOPAT.
Why this confidence: Reported free-cash-flow margin of 64% directly evidences minimal reinvestment ↑, Marketplace model structurally shifts capital intensity onto hosts ↑, Sustaining high-teens growth on a 10% reinvestment rate is a demanding joint assumption ↓
Evidence for
- Free Cash Flow was $1.704 billion in Q1 2026 at a 64% margin with trailing-twelve-month Free Cash Flow of $4.536 billion.[Airbnb Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- AI-driven development reduced concept-to-launch time by up to 60% and increased features shipped by nearly 80% year over year, lowering the investment needed per unit of new capability.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Airbnb's own guidance assumes increased AI spending, and hotel and Experiences expansion requires supply acquisition and marketing investment that is not free.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: Starting from a business still compounding at ~17% with an expanding category footprint, this case assumes Airbnb reaches its terminal year as a broader travel platform spanning homes, hotels, and experiences that grows modestly faster than nominal GDP at 0.030 — still capped well below the roughly 4.6% ten-year Treasury yield, which no perpetual growth rate may exceed.
Why this confidence: Held below the observed risk-free rate, preserving internal consistency ↑, Above-GDP perpetual growth is a strong claim that few businesses sustain ↓, Supporting evidence is management call commentary rather than audited disclosure ↓, Terminal value is the largest and least observable part of the valuation ↓
Evidence for
- Hotel nights grew roughly three times faster than the homes business and 35% of first-time hotel guests returned to book a home, showing category expansion beyond short-term rentals.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
- First-time booker growth reached an 11% four-year high led by Gen Z, indicating a young, replenishing user base that supports durable long-run growth.[Airbnb Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· secondary
Evidence against
- Airbnb's core revenue growth still decelerated from 18.1% in 2023 to 10.3% in 2025, and nights growth of 10% lags revenue growth, arguing against a perpetually above-GDP rate.[Airbnb Q2 FY2026 Form 8-K Ex-99.1]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating50 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 70% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 9.9% | — | — | 642M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | 6.1% | — | — | 632M | -3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | 12.7% | — | — | 626M | -3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | — | — | 621M | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 17.9% | — | — | 608M | -3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | 597M | -4.6% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The U.S. 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield is the standard dollar risk-free rate for a long-horizon DCF, and it stood at approximately 4.645% in mid-August 2026, which is rounded to 0.0465.
Airbnb's published five-year beta against the broad market was 1.0662, reflecting a travel-marketplace whose systematic risk sits just above the market, and this is rounded to 1.07.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied ERP, computed from the S&P 500 level of 6,845.5 on January 1, 2026 and trailing dividends and buybacks, gave an expected equity return of 8.41% less a 4.18% Treasury bond rate, or 4.23%.
The most recent observed market close for ABNB was $184.13 on August 15, 2026, following the Q2 2026 report; this is the market price against which the DCF's per-share value is compared.
Airbnb's own most recent marginal borrowing cost is directly observable: on March 12, 2026 it priced $2.5 billion of senior unsecured notes in three tranches with coupons ranging from 4.400% to 5.250% (including $800 million of 5.250% notes due 2036), so a blended pre-tax cost of debt of approximately 0.047 is used.
Generated 8/16/2026, 10:24:40 AM · pipeline v1.1.0