ADOBE INC.
Nasdaq: ADBE·San Jose, California·CIK 0000796343
- Price
- $241.28
- Base IV
- $250.93
- Your value
- $250.93
- 4.0%
Valuation snapshot
Price is between the bear and base cases. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Sep 22, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $241.28 the market is pricing ADOBE INC. as if revenue grows 8.0% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 8.8% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+8.0%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+8.8%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Or, growth held
35.6%
operating margin reproduces the price, vs 37.0% assumed
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth11.5%
- 02 Operating margin37.0%
- 03 Risk and beta1.28
- 04 Long-run growth2.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Adobe's subscription sales and recurring contracts continue to grow at double-digit rates, supported by creative, document, and customer-experience products. Growth gradually slows as the company becomes larger, but a recurring revenue base and disciplined spending allow profitability to recover. Continued research spending supports product relevance without consuming an unusually large share of cash.
What shapes the assumptions
- Total Adobe ARR growth
12.5% 2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z·↑ revenue growth
- Customer-group subscription revenue, fiscal Q2
$6.4B 2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z·↑ revenue growth
- Quarterly GAAP operating profit margin
34.8% 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z·↑ operating margin
- Remaining performance obligations, fiscal Q2
$22B 2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z·↑ revenue growth
- Quarterly research spending as a share of revenue
19.1% 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z·↑ operating margin
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion6.6
- Terminal-value dependency2.8
- Historical stability8.1
- Margin predictability9.4
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $316.98 to $250.93 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Net cash—
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Tax-rate assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
Base estimate
$250.93 4.0%