Autodesk, Inc.
Nasdaq: ADSK·San Francisco, California·CIK 0000769397
- Price
- $211.31
- Base IV
- $118.47
- Your value
- $118.47
- -43.9%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Sep 16, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $211.31 the market is pricing Autodesk, Inc. as if revenue grows 26.4% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 11.0% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+26.4%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+11.0%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Or, growth held
52.1%
operating margin reproduces the price, vs 29.0% assumed
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth15.5%
- 02 Operating margin29.0%
- 03 Risk and beta1.21
- 04 Long-run growth2.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Autodesk has grown revenue every year since fiscal 2018, reaching $7.21 billion in fiscal 2026, and management has raised its outlook for this year to about $8.3 billion after beating its own targets in the first two quarters. Growth is broad — architecture and construction, AutoCAD, manufacturing and media all grew double digits last quarter — and nearly all revenue is now recurring subscriptions, which makes the base predictable. The catch is that the money invoiced to customers grew only 10% last quarter, well below the 16% reported revenue growth, so this case assumes growth cools to roughly the invoicing pace over the next few years. Profitability, which had been stuck for two years and has just stepped up sharply, is assumed to improve modestly further as the company runs with fewer employees than it did two years ago, tempered by the accounting costs of the $3.6 billion MaintainX purchase.
What shapes the assumptions
- Total revenue growth, quarterly year-over-year
16.0% 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z·↓ revenue growth
- GAAP operating margin, full fiscal year
26.0% 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z·↑ operating margin
- Billings, full fiscal year
$8.6B 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z·↑ revenue growth
- Current remaining performance obligations growth, quarter-end year-over-year
12.0% 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z·↓ revenue growth
- Free cash flow, full fiscal year
$2.7B 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z·↑ reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion5.8
- Terminal-value dependency2.7
- Historical stability7.3
- Margin predictability8.1
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $116.52 to $118.47 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Net cash—
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Tax-rate assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
Base estimate
$118.47 -43.9%