ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 12, 2026
What drives ADSK's base case?
base-case thesisRecent growth has been broad across construction, manufacturing, and AutoCAD products, while contracted near-term revenue remains healthy. The accounting benefit from the new sales model should fade, so growth slows gradually rather than staying at its latest pace. A subscription-heavy business and completed cost changes allow profit to improve, although stock-based pay and cloud spending remain meaningful.
What shapes the assumptions
Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 0.18 and current contracted revenue grew 0.18
five-year revenue growth path
Raises revenue growth
Q1 FY2027 GAAP profitability improved to 0.28
year-five operating profitability
Raises operating margin
FY2026 physical capital spending was 43 million on 6.131 billion of revenue
share of after-tax operating profit reinvested
Lowers reinvestment
International revenue represented 0.64 of FY2026 sales
sustainable long-run revenue expansion
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 30.5% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 14.0% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 67.0% operating margin, against the 31.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 61.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$7.5B
Diluted shares
212,000,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$78.56
IV / share
-68.8% vs $251.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $23.96
- Terminal value
- $54.60
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $78.56
69.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
bear revenue growth (avg 7%) runs well above the trailing -15% trend
Revenue growth10.0% → 8.0% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 growth of 0.18, total RPO growth of 0.09, and management's approximately 0.10 underlying FY2027 growth outlook after currency and transaction-model effects, this path assumes slower renewals and progressively mature end markets.
Why this confidence: Management quantified underlying FY2027 growth ↑, Five-year demand and renewal horizon ↓
Evidence for
- Total RPO grew only 0.09 in Q1 FY2027, below reported revenue growth, and management said the transaction model was temporarily increasing calculated revenue growth without increasing operating profit or free cash flow.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 0.18, current RPO grew 0.18, and all four principal product families recorded double-digit growth.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Operating margin27.0%medium
How derived: Starting from management's FY2027 GAAP margin range of 0.26 to 0.28 and Q1's 0.28 result, the case assumes restructuring benefits merely offset transaction-model pressure, cloud costs, and continued stock compensation.
Why this confidence: Near-term company guidance ↑, Uncertain long-run stock compensation and cloud costs ↓
Evidence for
- Management guided FY2027 GAAP profitability to 0.26-0.28 and warned that the new transaction model would reduce the calculated margin.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 FY2027 GAAP profitability reached 0.28, up 0.14 from the prior-year quarter, while management's non-GAAP measure reached 0.39.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate26.0%low
How derived: Starting from the FY2026 reported provision of 479 million on 1.603 billion of pretax income, but recognizing lower prior-year rates and possible tax benefits, this case assumes a still-elevated normalized cash tax burden.
Why this confidence: Audited tax reconciliation ↑, Unrecognized benefits and pending IRS decision ↓, Geographic earnings mix can change ↓
Evidence for
- Autodesk recorded a 479 million tax provision on 1.603 billion of FY2026 pretax income, and 257 million of unrecognized tax benefits could affect future effective rates.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Autodesk expects a requested accounting-method change for foreign research expenditures to reduce its future income-tax provision if approved by the IRS.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate28.0%low
How derived: Starting from low physical capital spending but substantial capitalized contract-acquisition costs, strategic investments, and continuing cloud and AI allocation, this case assumes 0.28 of after-tax operating profit must be reinvested to support even slower growth.
Why this confidence: Audited capital and strategic-investment data ↑, Reinvestment includes internally developed software and working capital not isolated in disclosures ↓
Evidence for
- Autodesk reported 216 million of strategic investments in FY2026 and said restructuring reallocates resources toward cloud, platform, and artificial intelligence priorities.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Physical capital expenditure was only 43 million in FY2026 against 6.131 billion of revenue, demonstrating the business's asset-light delivery model.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Starting from predominantly ratable subscription revenue but mature global design markets and exposure to economic cycles, this case assumes long-run growth near developed-market inflation rather than recent double-digit expansion.
Why this confidence: Recurring subscription structure ↑, Terminal period lies beyond the explicit forecast ↓
Evidence for
- Autodesk recognizes most subscription revenue ratably over contracts that typically last one to three years, supporting persistence but not immunity from slower renewals.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 FY2027 AECO and Make revenue grew 0.20 and 0.25, respectively, indicating that construction-cloud and manufacturing opportunities could sustain stronger growth.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Base
low confidence$116.52
IV / share
-53.7% vs $251.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $32.76
- Terminal value
- $83.76
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $116.52
71.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
base revenue growth (avg 10%) runs well above the trailing -15% trend
Revenue growth13.0% → 11.5% → 10.0% → 8.5% → 7.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 growth of 0.18 and management's FY2027 reported growth outlook of 0.13-0.14, this path assumes recurring subscriptions and broad product-family demand persist while transaction-model benefits fade and scale gradually slows growth.
Why this confidence: Company guidance covers the first forecast year ↑, Transaction-model and currency effects complicate the starting rate ↓, Later years require industry-demand judgment ↓
Evidence for
- Management raised FY2027 revenue guidance to 8.155-8.215 billion, representing reported growth of 0.13-0.14, after Q1 revenue grew 0.18.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's FY2027 revenue outlook is only approximately 0.10 after removing currency and new-transaction-model effects, while total RPO grew 0.09.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 investor presentation]· primary
Operating margin31.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 GAAP profitability of 0.28 and FY2027 guidance of 0.26-0.28, this case assumes subscription scale and completed restructuring lift the result to 0.31 while recurring stock compensation and cloud costs keep it well below the current 0.39 non-GAAP measure.
Why this confidence: Current result and full-year guidance provide a firm starting point ↑, Year-five cost mix is not guided ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 FY2027 GAAP profitability reached 0.28 and the non-GAAP measure reached 0.39, leaving room for scale benefits even after retaining recurring stock compensation.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management guided FY2027 GAAP profitability to only 0.26-0.28 and said reseller-incentive accounting under the new transaction model would reduce the calculated margin.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate23.0%low
How derived: Starting from an unusually high FY2026 reported rate near 0.30 versus rates near 0.20 in each of the preceding two years, this case normalizes to 0.23 while retaining a cushion for multinational tax uncertainty.
Why this confidence: Three years of audited tax data ↑, Large year-to-year variation ↓, International tax rules and pending IRS matter ↓
Evidence for
- The FY2025 and FY2024 provisions were 272 million on 1.384 billion and 230 million on 1.136 billion of pretax income, respectively, providing normalized reference rates near 0.20.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026's provision was 479 million on 1.603 billion of pretax income, and Autodesk warns that geographic earnings mix, tax-law changes, and uncertain positions can materially alter its rate.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate24.0%low
How derived: Starting from very low physical capital spending but meaningful customer-acquisition assets and strategic investment, this case assumes Autodesk reinvests 0.24 of after-tax operating profit while its software model converts most incremental revenue into cash.
Why this confidence: Cash-flow statement shows low physical capital intensity ↑, Contract assets distort recent working-capital requirements ↓, Internal software investment is expensed rather than separately disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- Autodesk generated 2.452 billion of operating cash in FY2026 while spending only 43 million on physical capital, and Q1 FY2027 free cash flow was 876 million.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 prepaid and other assets increased by 1.051 billion in operating cash flow, reflecting in part the capitalization of recoverable reseller incentives under the new transaction model.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Starting from Autodesk's ratable subscription base and worldwide exposure, this case assumes long-run growth modestly above inflation as digitization and price realization continue but the company becomes much larger.
Why this confidence: Recurring and geographically diversified revenue ↑, Growth assumption extends indefinitely ↓
Evidence for
- Subscription revenue increased FY2026 revenue and contracts are predominantly recognized ratably, while international markets represented 0.64 of revenue.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Autodesk warns that lower subscription sales or renewals may appear in reported revenue only after a delay and that international revenue is exposed to economic and political conditions.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$157.46
IV / share
-37.4% vs $251.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $40.76
- Terminal value
- $116.70
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $157.46
74.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull revenue growth (avg 12%) runs well above the trailing -15% trend
Revenue growth15.0% → 14.0% → 12.5% → 11.0% → 9.0%low
How derived: Starting from Q1 growth of 0.18 and growth of 0.20 in AECO, 0.25 in Make, and 0.19 in manufacturing, this path assumes cloud construction, manufacturing, and AI-enabled workflows sustain broad adoption before growth moderates with scale.
Why this confidence: Broad product and geographic growth ↑, Growth materially exceeds management's adjusted near-term outlook ↓, AI monetization remains unproven ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 0.18, with AECO up 0.20, Make up 0.25, manufacturing up 0.19, and every major geography growing at least 0.16 as reported.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's FY2027 outlook implies approximately 0.10 growth after currency and transaction-model effects, and total RPO grew 0.09.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 investor presentation]· primary
Operating margin34.0%low
How derived: Starting from Q1 GAAP profitability of 0.28 and a 0.39 non-GAAP measure, this case assumes rapid growth, sales-force efficiency, and subscription scale close roughly half of the current accounting gap by year five.
Why this confidence: Current cash generation and non-GAAP earnings capacity ↑, Requires sustained cost discipline beyond guidance ↓, Stock compensation remains economically recurring ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 FY2027's non-GAAP profitability was 0.39 and free cash flow reached 876 million, showing substantial underlying earnings capacity.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 0.39 non-GAAP result excluded 0.08 of stock compensation, 0.02 of intangible amortization, and 0.01 of restructuring costs, while FY2027 GAAP guidance remains 0.26-0.28.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: Starting from FY2024 and FY2025 effective rates close to 0.20, this case assumes geographic mix and the requested research-expenditure accounting change offset most of FY2026's unusual tax elevation.
Why this confidence: Two prior years support the normalized rate ↑, Assumes favorable resolution of tax items ↓, Multinational tax policy remains uncertain ↓
Evidence for
- FY2024 and FY2025 tax provisions imply rates close to 0.20, and Autodesk expects its requested research-expenditure accounting change to reduce the provision if approved.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026's tax provision was 479 million on 1.603 billion of pretax income, materially above this assumption.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate21.0%low
How derived: Starting from FY2026 capital expenditure of only 43 million and Q1 FY2027 capital expenditure of 17 million, this case assumes Autodesk's existing software platform supports faster growth while consuming only 0.21 of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated asset-light cash generation ↑, High growth may require acquisitions and greater platform investment ↓
Evidence for
- Autodesk required only 43 million of physical capital spending in FY2026 and 17 million in Q1 FY2027, while producing 2.452 billion and 893 million of operating cash, respectively.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Autodesk spent 216 million on strategic investments in FY2026, continues to prioritize cloud, platform, and AI investment, and announced the MaintainX acquisition in Q1 FY2027.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: Starting from broad double-digit growth across AECO, manufacturing, AutoCAD, and media products, this case assumes Autodesk remains a durable beneficiary of global design digitization and sustains long-run nominal growth above inflation.
Why this confidence: Growth spans multiple products and end markets ↑, Perpetual growth is highly sensitive and distant ↓, Construction and manufacturing remain cyclical ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 FY2027 growth was broad: AECO grew 0.20, manufacturing grew 0.19, AutoCAD grew 0.15, and Make grew 0.25.[Autodesk Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Total RPO grew 0.09, and Autodesk cautions that weaker renewals can affect reported revenue only after a delay because subscriptions are recognized over their contract terms.[Autodesk FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating61 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 72% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The tax rate assumption is low-confidence.→ tax rate
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 11.9% | 0.94 | 57.1% | 217M | 0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | 11.0% | 0.92 | 1423.7% | 217M | 0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | 15.2% | 2.57 | 14.7% | 216M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 17.1% | 2.1 | 124.2% | 215M | -0.9% |
| Q3 2026 | 18.0% | 2 | 118.1% | 215M | -0.9% |
| Q1 2027 | 18.4% | 4.13 | 60.5% | 212M | -1.9% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 0.0474 U.S. Treasury rate used in the August 1, 2026 implied-equity-premium update is adopted as the nominal U.S. dollar risk-free input.
The published five-year monthly ADSK beta of 1.29 is used to capture the stock's historical sensitivity to broad-market returns.
The August 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium of 0.0428 is used as the forward-looking market premium.
The latest closing price directly available from Autodesk's investor-relations historical lookup was 225.91 on July 27, 2026.
Generated 8/12/2026, 1:19:25 PM · pipeline v1.1.0