AMD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INCNasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Out of date. Financials have been published or corrected since this valuation was generated. An admin can recalculate it to fold in the new financials.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for AMD; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$37.5B
Diluted shares
1,650,000,000
Net cash
$2.4B
Bear
medium confidence$36.57
IV / share
-93.4% vs $552.17
Revenue growth38.0% → 22.0% → 12.0% → 8.0% → 6.0%medium
Assumes AMD delivers its guided FY2026 ramp but the MI450/Helios build-out plateaus in 2027-28 as hyperscaler custom ASICs (TPU, MTIA, Trainium) and NVIDIA Rubin absorb incremental AI capex, pulling growth down toward a mid-single-digit server/client baseline.
Operating margin17.0%medium
Only modest expansion above the best margin AMD has recently printed, reflecting HBM4 and 2nm wafer cost inflation plus the need to discount Instinct parts to defend share against NVIDIA.
Tax rate18.0%medium
Assumes AMD's favorable 13% guided rate erodes toward the statutory marginal rate as R&D credits and foreign-derived income benefits shrink relative to a larger domestic profit base.
Reinvestment rate35.0%medium
A larger share of a smaller profit pool is consumed by non-negotiable roadmap R&D and prepaid TSMC/HBM capacity commitments that must be funded even if the AI ramp disappoints.
Terminal growth2.0%high
A commoditized-accelerator endgame leaves AMD growing below nominal GDP in perpetuity, well inside the risk-free-rate ceiling.
Base
medium confidence$113.48
IV / share
-79.4% vs $552.17
Revenue growth50.0% → 48.0% → 32.0% → 22.0% → 15.0%medium
Bridges the $37.5B trailing base to the Street's FY2026/FY2027 consensus as the OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft and Anthropic Instinct commitments ramp from H2 2026, then decays toward a mature-share growth rate, landing near AMD's own >35% three-to-five-year CAGR target.
Operating margin26.0%medium
Assumes AMD reaches roughly the mid-20s on a GAAP basis — meaningful progress toward the >35% non-GAAP goal once Xilinx intangible amortization rolls off and rack-scale Helios volume delivers operating leverage, but short of management's full ambition.
Tax rate15.0%high
Starts from management's guided 13% rate and drifts modestly higher as AMD's profit base scales and mix normalizes toward the US statutory rate.
Reinvestment rate30.0%medium
AMD's fabless model keeps capex light, but funding a ~32% five-year sales CAGR requires large inventory builds and prepaid wafer/HBM capacity, consuming roughly 30% of after-tax operating profit.
Terminal growth2.8%high
A mature AMD grows roughly in line with long-run nominal GDP, comfortably below the risk-free rate.
Bull
low confidence$231.91
IV / share
-58.0% vs $552.17
Revenue growth60.0% → 58.0% → 42.0% → 30.0% → 22.0%low
Assumes the OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft and Anthropic gigawatt commitments all deploy on or ahead of schedule and AMD outruns its own >35% CAGR target, taking durable merchant-GPU share alongside 70%+ server CPU growth.
Operating margin33.0%low
Full-rack Helios systems at ~$5.25M per rack carry richer content and pricing power, letting AMD essentially hit its stated long-term margin model on a reported basis.
Tax rate13.0%medium
Assumes AMD sustains its currently guided rate indefinitely through R&D credits and favorable foreign-derived intangible income treatment.
Reinvestment rate22.0%medium
Consistent with management's own model, where the fabless structure converts the large majority of operating profit into free cash flow even at high growth.
Terminal growth3.5%medium
A structurally advantaged AMD compounds slightly faster than the broad economy forever, still safely under the risk-free rate.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated long-horizon DCF.
AMD's equity is roughly twice as volatile as the market given its concentrated AI-capex exposure; 1.9 sits mid-range across providers and lookback windows rather than at the volatile 2026 extremes.
Uses Damodaran's forward-looking implied premium, nudged marginally higher to reflect the rise in Treasury yields through mid-2026.
Latest available quote, consistent with the ~$911B implied market capitalization on 1.65B diluted shares.
Generated 8/2/2026, 10:02:45 AM · pipeline v1.0.0