BFLY
Butterfly Network, Inc.NYSEThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for BFLY; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$102.9M
Diluted shares
256,516,256
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$0.20
IV / share
-97.5% vs $7.93
Revenue growth15.0% → 12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 6.0%medium
Assumes the low end of guidance holds initially, then growth fades toward mid-single digits as Mindray/GE pricing pressure and Medicare fee compression cap handheld-ultrasound adoption.
Operating margin8.0%low
Even with high gross margins, persistent opex and slower scale limit steady-state GAAP operating margin to high single digits in a pessimistic scenario.
Tax rate21.0%high
Marginal rate applied to normalized operating income once large NOL carryforwards are exhausted at maturity.
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
Slow growth requires relatively little incremental capital and working capital reinvestment as a fraction of after-tax operating income.
Terminal growth2.5%medium
Long-run growth trails the mature imaging market and stays well below the 4.5% risk-free rate.
Base
low confidence$0.38
IV / share
-95.2% vs $7.93
Revenue growth21.0% → 19.0% → 17.0% → 14.0% → 11.0%medium
Starts at management guidance and analyst consensus growth, then decelerates gradually toward the long-run consensus trajectory.
Operating margin15.0%low
Software mix and operating leverage on a high-gross-margin base drive a mid-teens steady-state operating margin consistent with maturing medtech peers.
Tax rate21.0%high
Standard marginal rate applied to normalized operating income at maturity.
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
Moderate reinvestment in inventory, R&D capitalization, and go-to-market supports mid-teens revenue growth.
Terminal growth3.0%medium
Perpetual growth roughly in line with the underlying imaging market and below the risk-free rate.
Bull
low confidence$0.56
IV / share
-93.0% vs $7.93
Revenue growth25.0% → 24.0% → 22.0% → 19.0% → 16.0%medium
Assumes Butterfly sustains its recent ~25% growth as AI-guided handheld ultrasound and software subscriptions expand into new care settings.
Operating margin22.0%low
A software-led, high-gross-margin model at scale supports low-20s operating margins toward the top of the medtech peer range.
Tax rate21.0%high
Standard marginal rate on normalized operating income; NOLs shield cash taxes only in the explicit-forecast years.
Reinvestment rate55.0%low
Faster growth demands heavier reinvestment in R&D, sales capacity, and inventory, funded by the $138M cash balance and improving margins.
Terminal growth3.5%medium
Durable competitive share gains keep terminal growth modestly above the underlying market while staying below the risk-free rate.
Market inputs researched
Generated 7/4/2026, 3:38:16 PM · pipeline v1.0.0