BRK-B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCNYSEThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for BRK-B; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$251B
Diluted shares
2,157,334,500
Net cash
—
Bear
medium confidence$178.43
IV / share
-65.1% vs $511.10
Revenue growth0.0% → 0.5% → 1.0% → 1.5% → 1.5%medium
Extends the flat-to-negative 2024-2025 top line as the P/C soft cycle deepens (GEICO Q1-26 underwriting profit -35%, property reinsurance pricing falling) and lower short rates shrink interest income on the cash pile.
Operating margin19.0%medium
Assumes pre-tax operating margin slips from ~22% toward 19% as underwriting profit normalizes to industry-average combined ratios and investment income falls with rates.
Tax rate21.0%medium
Assumes Berkshire's structurally low effective rate converges toward statutory as renewable-energy tax credits at BHE phase down and the dividends-received benefit shrinks relative to operating income.
Reinvestment rate40.0%medium
Regulated utility and railroad capital spending is largely non-discretionary, so a weak-growth scenario still absorbs a high share of after-tax profit in maintenance and mandated grid investment.
Terminal growth1.5%high
A conglomerate of mature US insurance, rail and utility assets grows below nominal GDP in perpetuity if it cannot deploy capital at scale.
Base
medium confidence$288.17
IV / share
-43.6% vs $511.10
Revenue growth4.0% → 3.5% → 3.2% → 3.0% → 2.8%medium
Blends the early-2026 reacceleration with management's warning of slowing P/C growth, settling at roughly nominal US GDP growth for a diversified domestic conglomerate.
Operating margin22.0%high
Holds the pre-tax operating margin at the level actually delivered in FY2025 and Q1 2026, assuming disciplined underwriting offsets softer pricing.
Tax rate19.0%high
Assumes the effective rate drifts modestly above its recent 17-18% level but stays below statutory thanks to the dividends-received deduction and remaining energy credits.
Reinvestment rate32.0%medium
Net capex plus bolt-on acquisitions consume roughly a third of after-tax operating profit, consistent with mid-single-digit growth at Berkshire's historical returns on capital.
Terminal growth2.0%high
A mature, US-centric earnings base should compound at about the economy's long-run rate, comfortably below the risk-free rate.
Bull
low confidence$419.91
IV / share
-17.8% vs $511.10
Revenue growth7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0% → 5.5% → 5.0%low
Assumes Greg Abel converts the record cash hoard into large acquisitions while insurance pricing firms and freight volumes recover, lifting growth above nominal GDP.
Operating margin25.0%low
Assumes best-in-class underwriting margins like GEICO's 87.3% combined ratio persist and acquired businesses are bought at attractive returns, pushing margin above the FY2024 peak.
Tax rate17.5%medium
Assumes Berkshire sustains its recent below-statutory effective rate via the dividends-received deduction and continued energy tax credits at BHE.
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
Faster growth is funded largely from the existing idle cash balance and higher returns on each dollar deployed, so incremental reinvestment out of profits stays near the historical share.
Terminal growth2.5%medium
Assumes Berkshire's mix tilts toward faster-growing energy and rail infrastructure assets, letting it compound slightly above nominal GDP indefinitely.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury is the standard maturity-matched risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated DCF.
Berkshire's diversified insurance, utility and rail earnings plus a huge cash buffer make it materially less volatile than the market, consistent with the 0.61 five-year regression beta.
The forward-looking implied premium backed out of current S&P 500 prices and cash flows is preferable to noisy historical averages.
Most recent traded price for the Class B shares being valued.
Generated 8/3/2026, 9:30:19 AM · pipeline v1.0.0