CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.
Nasdaq: CSCO·San Jose, California·CIK 0000858877
- Price
- $110.24
- Base IV
- $40.10
- Your value
- $40.10
- -63.6%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Sep 18, 2026 · Valuation Aug 11, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $110.24 the market is pricing CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. as if revenue grows 30.3% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 5.9% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+30.3%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+5.9%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Or, growth held
67.4%
operating margin reproduces the price, vs 26.0% assumed
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth8.5%
- 02 Operating margin26.0%
- 03 Risk and beta1.00
- 04 Long-run growth2.4%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Cisco's most recent quarter was a record $15.8 billion in revenue, up 12% from a year earlier, and profitability has improved for four quarters straight. Management raised its expectation for orders from large cloud AI customers to $9 billion for the year, up from $5 billion, and guided the full year to roughly $63 billion in revenue — evidence the AI networking opportunity is a real, multi-year revenue stream rather than a single quarter's luck. This case assumes that order book converts steadily through the next two years and then growth fades toward the pace of a mature networking business, since Cisco's own history shows it compounding only around 3% a year over the past decade and a half. Meanwhile, the roughly 4,000-role restructuring reduces ongoing costs and management says gross margins have stabilized, so profit per dollar of sales settles modestly above where it is today.
What shapes the assumptions
No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion4.7
- Terminal-value dependency1.7
- Historical stability9.0
- Margin predictability8.8
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $41.71 to $40.10 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
- Terminal-growth assumption—
- Discount rate—
Base estimate
$40.10 -63.6%