Datadog, Inc.

Datadog is compounding from a much larger base than a few years ago: revenue grew 28% in 2023, 26% in 2024, 28% in 2025, and has reaccelerated to 32% and 36% in the first two quarters of 2026. Management guides the full year to about $4.46 billion, roughly 30% growth, and its own third-quarter outlook implies a step down to around 28% because it removed the upside from its largest customer, whose usage fell. This case takes management at its word and then decelerates smoothly: existing customers still expand spending more than 20% a year, and high-value accounts paying over $100,000 grew about 23%, but adding more than a billion dollars of revenue annually inevitably slows the percentage. Profitability rises from today's near-zero all-in level because gross margin sits near 80% and the roughly $220 million quarterly stock-compensation bill should grow slower than revenue.

What shapes the assumptions

No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.