INTC
INTEL CORPNasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for INTC; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$57B
Diluted shares
5,104,000,000
Net cash
-$35.7B
Bear
low confidence-$6.27
IV / share
-107.0% vs $89.21
Revenue growth7.0% → 3.0% → 1.5% → 1.0% → 1.0%medium
Assumes the FY2026 AI/PC upcycle carries one more year off the $57.0B TTM base and then stalls as external foundry adoption fails to scale and AMD/Arm share gains resume the 2022–2025 pattern of flat-to-declining revenue.
Operating margin8.0%medium
If foundry never reaches breakeven and depreciation from the >$20B 2026 capex program lands on flat revenue, margins settle below the current quarterly run-rate and far below Intel's 2018–2020 norm.
Tax rate19.0%medium
With weak profits Intel captures little benefit from FDII and R&D credits and risks valuation allowances, so the cash tax rate converges near the U.S. marginal statutory rate.
Reinvestment rate90.0%low
Leading-edge fabs require sustained heavy capital spending regardless of demand, so in a weak-revenue world nearly all after-tax operating profit is consumed by net capital investment.
Terminal growth1.5%medium
A structurally share-losing Intel grows below the broader economy in perpetuity as its franchise erodes.
Base
medium confidence$2.04
IV / share
-97.7% vs $89.21
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.0% → 11.0% → 9.0% → 8.0%medium
Applies consensus to the $57.0B TTM base, capturing the FY2026 AI/data-center surge (DCAI +59%, CCG +13% in Q2'26), a modest 2027 digestion year, and re-acceleration as 18A/14A capacity ramps.
Operating margin18.0%medium
Rising 18A yields, product cost reductions and operating leverage on ~$90B of revenue lift margins well above today's roughly 11% but keep them below Intel's pre-2021 peak given foundry drag.
Tax rate16.0%medium
A profitable Intel with heavy U.S. manufacturing investment sustains an effective rate meaningfully below the statutory 21%.
Reinvestment rate62.0%medium
Net capital investment above depreciation stays elevated to fund U.S. fab buildout, but a growing profit base absorbs it and still leaves consensus-level free cash flow by the end of the decade.
Terminal growth2.5%medium
A stabilized Intel grows roughly in line with the overall economy once the current capacity cycle matures.
Bull
low confidence$18.68
IV / share
-79.1% vs $89.21
Revenue growth18.0% → 16.0% → 15.0% → 13.0% → 11.0%low
Assumes Intel converts AI data-center momentum (DCAI +59% YoY in Q2'26) and 18A-P/14A wins into sustained mid-teens growth, taking revenue past $110B — above the all-time peak of $79B set in 2021.
Operating margin27.0%low
Full fab utilization plus external foundry scale drives gross margin toward the mid-50s and restores operating margins close to Intel's pre-decline levels.
Tax rate13.0%medium
Heavy domestic manufacturing and export-linked income maximize U.S. credit utilization, holding the effective rate well below statutory.
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
Absolute capital spending stays very high, but a much larger profit base and improving returns on invested capital mean a smaller share of each profit dollar must be plowed back.
Terminal growth3.2%medium
A restored leading-edge Intel compounds modestly faster than the economy given secular AI and compute demand.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated long-horizon DCF.
Intel's raw beta is inflated by the 2024–2026 restructuring and bailout news flow, so a Blume-style adjustment toward the sector average gives a more forward-looking risk measure while still reflecting high operating and financial leverage.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied ERP is the most current market-derived estimate of the equity premium.
Most recent traded price, well off the June 2026 all-time high near $141, is the correct mark for comparing to intrinsic value.
Generated 8/2/2026, 8:03:03 PM · pipeline v1.0.0