INTU
INTUIT INC.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Near base casePrice is close to the base-case intrinsic value.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 17, 2026
What drives INTU's base case?
base-case thesisIntuit told investors it expects about $21.3 billion of revenue this year, roughly 13-14% growth, with its small-business software up about 16%, Credit Karma up about 19%, and TurboTax up only about 7%. Weighting those together, the company's growth engine is the business side, not the tax side, and it is big enough now — nearly $21 billion of trailing sales versus under $10 billion five years ago — that growth naturally slows toward the high single digits. On profitability, the company earned about 26 cents of operating profit per dollar of sales last year and guided to a bit more this year, and the 17% headcount reduction should push that higher over time even after paying for AI computing. Put together, this case is a still-good business compounding at a more ordinary pace with better margins.
What shapes the assumptions
Global Business Solutions guided to ~16% growth with Online Ecosystem up 19%
Business software subscription revenue
Raises revenue growth
TurboTax guided to only ~7% growth, a large and maturing share of the base
Consumer tax revenue growth
Lowers revenue growth
17% headcount reduction with most savings expected to reach the bottom line
GAAP operating margin
Raises operating margin
$7.7B of free cash flow in nine months on minimal physical capital
Free cash flow conversion
Lowers reinvestment
Company's own stated long-term tax rate of 24% for fiscal 2026
Effective tax rate
Informs tax rate
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 9.6% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 18.7% a year — so the price assumes less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 31.8% operating margin, against the 31.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 51.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$20.9B
Diluted shares
276,000,000
Net cash
-$1.5B
Bear
low confidence$181.18
IV / share
-47.6% vs $345.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $47.69
- Terminal value
- $138.86
- Net cash
- -$5.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $181.18
76.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth7.0% → 5.0% → 3.5% → 2.5% → 2.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the FY2026 guided revenue of $21.34-21.37B (~13-14% growth) and the fact that the fastest-decelerating piece is the largest — TurboTax was guided to only ~7% growth for FY26 and management trimmed the TurboTax dollar forecast to $5.277-5.282B from $5.305-5.330B — this case assumes agentic AI commoditizes guided tax prep and entry-level bookkeeping, so consumer tax flattens to low single digits and Global Business Solutions' 15-17% online growth halves as AI-native competitors undercut QuickBooks pricing, dragging blended growth from the mid-teens down toward GDP-like rates by year five.
Why this confidence: Company guidance anchors year one ↑, Twelve years of uninterrupted double-digit growth argue against a fast collapse ↓, Timing and severity of AI substitution in tax prep is unobservable ↓, Observable Q3 deceleration to 10.4% supports the direction ↑
Evidence for
- Intuit lowered its TurboTax revenue forecast to $5.277-$5.282 billion from a prior range of $5.305-$5.330 billion, the slowest-growing major line at roughly 7% for FY2026.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Intuit announced a reduction of about 17% of its full-time workforce (~3,000 roles) with $300-340M of restructuring charges, which CNBC framed as the company 'reckoning with slowing growth'.[CNBC: Intuit to cut 17% of staff]· secondary
- Reported Q3 FY2026 revenue growth of 10.4% ($8.558B) was the slowest of the last four quarters, decelerating from 18.3% in Q1 FY2026 and 17.4% in Q2 FY2026.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Evidence against
- Intuit raised, rather than cut, full-year FY2026 revenue guidance at Q3, to $21.341-$21.374B (~13-14% growth), with Global Business Solutions raised to ~16% and Credit Karma to ~19%.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Online Ecosystem revenue grew 19% to $2.5B in Q3 FY2026, and Global Business Solutions excluding Mailchimp grew 17%, indicating the core subscription franchise was still compounding at high-teens rates.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Operating margin25.5%medium
How derived: FY2026 GAAP operating income guidance of $5.705-5.725B on $21.34-21.37B of revenue implies roughly a 26.8% GAAP operating margin versus ~26.1% earned in FY2025, and this case assumes the ~17% headcount reduction's savings are fully consumed by AI compute costs, third-party model licensing, and price concessions needed to hold share, so margin drifts slightly below the FY2026 level as revenue growth stops covering fixed cost.
Why this confidence: Anchored to explicit GAAP operating income guidance ↑, Contradicted by management's stated expectation that cuts flow to the bottom line ↓, AI inference cost trajectory is genuinely unknown ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit is taking $300-340 million of restructuring charges, largely in fiscal Q4 2026, evidence that cost structure required forcible resetting rather than growing into leverage.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Intuit signed multi-year agreements with Anthropic and OpenAI to embed their models into its tax and finance platforms, adding a variable third-party cost of goods that scales with usage.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot and layoffs]· secondary
Evidence against
- FY2026 GAAP operating income is guided to grow ~16%, faster than the ~13-14% revenue growth, meaning margin was still expanding as of the latest guidance.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Management indicated it expects most of the cost reductions from the fiscal 2026 restructuring decision to flow to the bottom line.[Simply Wall St summary of Intuit Q3 FY26 call]· secondary
Tax rate25.0%high
How derived: Intuit states a long-term tax rate of 24% for fiscal 2026, and this case nudges it to 25% because with the shares down roughly 60% from their 2025 peak the excess tax benefits Intuit has historically realized on vesting stock compensation shrink sharply, pushing the effective rate up toward the blended US federal plus state statutory level.
Why this confidence: Company discloses an explicit long-term tax rate ↑, Statutory rates are stable and observable ↑, Size of the stock-comp windfall adjustment is estimated, not disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit uses a long-term tax rate of 24% for its fiscal 2026 non-GAAP presentation, the company's own view of its sustainable rate.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit shares traded at $345.66 on 2026-08-14 against a 52-week high of $721.54, sharply reducing the in-the-money spread on vesting equity awards that generates excess tax benefits.[Yahoo Finance INTU quote]· secondary
Evidence against
- Intuit's stated long-term rate is 24%, not 25%, so the uplift is an analyst judgment rather than a disclosed figure.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Reinvestment rate28.0%low
How derived: Intuit generated $7.7 billion of free cash flow in the nine months to 30 April 2026 on very low capital intensity, but in this case the company must keep funding AI compute, third-party model contracts, an Enterprise Suite mid-market build-out, and defensive tuck-in acquisitions even as profit growth stalls, so a materially larger share of after-tax operating profit — roughly 28% — gets consumed reinvesting just to defend the installed base.
Why this confidence: No disclosed forward reinvestment or capex plan ↓, Contradicted by the 15% dividend increase ↓, Directionally supported by disclosed AI and Enterprise Suite investment ↑
Evidence for
- Intuit accelerated its push into AI-powered mid-market software with Enterprise Suite enhancements and a construction-focused edition, and signed multi-year model deals with Anthropic and OpenAI — spending commitments that continue regardless of revenue outcome.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
- Intuit has a history of very large acquisitions to buy growth, including Credit Karma and Mailchimp, which now contribute the Credit Karma and Mailchimp lines disclosed in segment results.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Evidence against
- Intuit converted revenue to $7.7 billion of free cash flow in just nine months of FY2026, indicating structurally low capital intensity that argues for a much lower reinvestment burden.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit raised its quarterly dividend 15% to $1.20 per share payable July 2026, a capital-return decision inconsistent with a company forced into heavy defensive reinvestment.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
Terminal growth1.8%medium
How derived: The 10-year Treasury par yield of 4.32% caps any defensible perpetual growth rate, and this case sets terminal growth at 1.8% — below long-run nominal GDP — on the view that if agentic AI structurally compresses the value of guided tax preparation and small-business bookkeeping, Intuit's mature-state franchise grows more slowly than the economy it serves.
Why this confidence: Bounded by an observable Treasury yield ↑, Perpetuity assumptions are inherently unverifiable ↓, Consistent with the decelerating growth path in this case ↑
Evidence for
- The 10-year US Treasury par yield of 4.32% sets an upper bound on a sustainable perpetual nominal growth rate for any single company.[US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates]· primary
- TurboTax, guided to only ~7% growth in FY2026 with its dollar forecast trimmed, is the product line most exposed to AI substitution and anchors the mature-state growth rate.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Intuit grew revenue every year from $4.19B in FY2015 to $18.83B in FY2025, a compounding record that argues its steady-state growth should at least match nominal GDP.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Base
medium confidence$342.21
IV / share
-1.0% vs $345.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $74.16
- Terminal value
- $273.42
- Net cash
- -$5.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $342.21
79.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth11.0% → 10.0% → 9.0% → 8.5% → 8.0%high
How derived: Weighting Intuit's own FY2026 segment guidance — Global Business Solutions ~16% (roughly half of revenue), Consumer ~10% including TurboTax ~7%, Credit Karma ~19%, ProTax ~4% — produces a blended organic rate around 12%, and this case steps that down each year to the high single digits as the base gets larger ($20.9B trailing twelve months versus $9.6B five years ago) and consumer tax matures, without assuming AI structurally breaks the franchise.
Why this confidence: Explicit company segment-level guidance for the first forecast year ↑, Eleven consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth in the actuals ↑, Five-year horizon extends well past any guided period ↓, Q3 print already running below the full-year guide ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit raised FY2026 segment guidance to ~16% growth for Global Business Solutions and ~10% for Consumer, including TurboTax ~7%, Credit Karma ~19% and ProTax ~4%.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Q3 FY2026 Global Business Solutions revenue rose 15% to $3.3B, with Online Ecosystem up 19% to $2.5B and GBS excluding Mailchimp up 17%.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Intuit raised full-year FY2026 revenue guidance to $21.341-$21.374 billion, ~13-14% growth, up from the ~12-13% set at the start of the year.[Intuit Investor Day FY26 guidance reaffirmation]· primary
Evidence against
- Q3 FY2026 total revenue growth of 10.4% was already below the 13-14% full-year guide, and Consumer revenue grew only 8% in the seasonally dominant tax quarter.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Credit Karma's ~19% growth is driven by personal loans, auto insurance and home loans — cyclical lending categories that would not sustain that rate through a credit downturn.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Operating margin31.5%medium
How derived: Intuit's GAAP operating margin has climbed from about 22% in FY2023-24 to roughly 26% in FY2025 and an implied ~26.8% in FY2026 guidance ($5.705-5.725B on $21.34-21.37B), and layering the ~17% headcount reduction — which management says should mostly flow to the bottom line — onto that trend, partly offset by AI compute and reinvestment, supports a mature-state margin near 31.5%, still well below the ~41% non-GAAP level because GAAP carries roughly ten points of stock compensation.
Why this confidence: Anchored to explicit FY2026 GAAP operating income guidance ↑, A quantified, announced cost action (17% headcount) with disclosed charges ↑, Requires faster expansion than the FY25-to-FY26 trend line ↓, Unknown steady-state AI inference cost ↓
Evidence for
- FY2026 GAAP operating income is guided to $5.705-$5.725 billion, ~16% growth, ahead of ~13-14% revenue growth — i.e. continued margin expansion.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Intuit is reducing full-time headcount by about 17% (~3,000 roles) and expects most of the resulting cost reduction to flow to the bottom line.[CNBC: Intuit to cut 17% of staff]· secondary
- Q3 FY2026 GAAP operating margin reached 47.0% in the seasonal peak quarter, demonstrating very high incremental margin on the tax-season revenue base.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Evidence against
- The FY2026 margin gain over FY2025 is only about one point (roughly 26.1% to 26.8%), so a five-point expansion to 31.5% requires a faster pace than the company has recently delivered.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Multi-year Anthropic and OpenAI model agreements embed a variable AI cost that scales with product usage, working against margin expansion.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
Tax rate24.0%high
How derived: Intuit itself uses a long-term tax rate of 24% for fiscal 2026, which sits close to the US federal statutory 21% plus a state and foreign blend, and with no announced change in the company's geographic profit mix this is carried straight through the forecast as the sustainable rate.
Why this confidence: Company-disclosed long-term rate used verbatim ↑, Repeated consistently across multiple FY2026 filings ↑, Future tax legislation over five years is unknowable ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit applies a long-term tax rate of 24% for fiscal 2026 in its own financial presentation.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit reiterated the same long-term tax rate framework across FY2026 quarterly releases, indicating stability rather than a one-off.[Intuit FY26 Q2 8-K earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Intuit's reported GAAP effective rate can fall below the stated long-term rate in years with large excess tax benefits from vesting equity awards, so 24% may overstate cash tax in strong stock years.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%medium
How derived: Intuit converted revenue into $7.7 billion of free cash flow in the nine months to 30 April 2026, showing that a software business of this kind needs very little physical capital, so at the roughly 9% average growth in this case only about 22% of after-tax operating profit needs to be recycled into R&D capitalization, AI infrastructure, and modest tuck-in acquisitions to sustain it.
Why this confidence: Grounded in a disclosed nine-month free cash flow figure ↑, Dividend increase corroborates surplus cash after investment ↑, No forward capex or acquisition budget is disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit generated $7.7 billion of free cash flow in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, confirming low capital intensity relative to reported operating income.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit raised its quarterly dividend 15% to $1.20 per share payable 17 July 2026, indicating comfortable free cash flow after funding growth.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
Evidence against
- Intuit is actively expanding Enterprise Suite into mid-market and vertical editions and signed multi-year AI model agreements, both of which raise forward investment above the historical run-rate.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: With the 10-year Treasury par yield at 4.32% setting the ceiling, this case sets perpetual growth at 2.5% — roughly long-run US nominal GDP — on the reasoning that Intuit's mature-state market is US and international small business plus consumer tax, a base that grows with the economy and with price increases but cannot outgrow it forever.
Why this confidence: Bounded below the observable risk-free rate ↑, Matches a standard long-run nominal GDP anchor ↑, Perpetuity assumptions cannot be validated against company disclosure ↓
Evidence for
- The 10-year US Treasury par yield of 4.32% comfortably exceeds a 2.5% perpetual growth assumption, keeping the terminal value internally consistent.[US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates]· primary
- Intuit's subscription franchise has recurring, price-escalating characteristics, with Online Ecosystem revenue up 19% in Q3 FY2026, supporting at least inflation-plus growth in a mature state.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- TurboTax, guided to only ~7% growth in FY2026 and with its dollar forecast trimmed, is a large share of profit and may settle below economy-wide growth.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Bull
low confidence$553.59
IV / share
+60.2% vs $345.66
- Explicit cash flows
- $104.36
- Terminal value
- $454.60
- Net cash
- -$5.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $553.59
82.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth15.0% → 14.5% → 13.5% → 12.5% → 11.5%low
How derived: Intuit's fastest-growing pieces are already compounding at high-teens rates — Online Ecosystem revenue up 19% to $2.5B and Credit Karma guided to ~19% for FY2026 — and this case assumes agentic AI becomes a revenue expander rather than a threat, letting Intuit sell done-for-you bookkeeping, payroll and payments at higher price points and push Enterprise Suite up-market, so mix shifts toward those high-teens lines and blended growth holds in the mid-teens rather than decaying like the 13-14% guided for FY2026.
Why this confidence: Requires sustaining mid-teens growth for five years on a $21B base ↓, Directly contradicted by the 10.4% growth in the latest reported quarter ↓, Supported by observed 19% Online Ecosystem and Credit Karma growth ↑
Evidence for
- Q3 FY2026 Online Ecosystem revenue grew 19% to $2.5 billion and Global Business Solutions excluding Mailchimp grew 17%, showing the core subscription engine running well above the total-company rate.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Intuit raised full-year FY2026 revenue guidance at Q3 to $21.341-$21.374 billion from the ~12-13% growth range set earlier in the year, and raised Credit Karma to ~19%.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Intuit is pushing up-market with AI-powered Enterprise Suite enhancements including a construction-focused edition, opening a larger mid-market revenue pool than its small-business core.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
Evidence against
- Total Q3 FY2026 revenue grew only 10.4% and Consumer grew 8%, both well below the mid-teens rate this case sustains for five years.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Intuit trimmed its TurboTax revenue forecast to $5.277-$5.282 billion from $5.305-$5.330 billion, a cut to roughly a quarter of company revenue.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Operating margin36.0%medium
How derived: Intuit's FY2026 guidance implies a non-GAAP operating margin of roughly 41% ($8.784-8.804B on $21.34-21.37B) against a GAAP margin of about 27%, so the gap is almost entirely stock compensation and amortization; this case assumes the ~17% headcount reduction permanently lowers both cash cost and the equity-grant base while AI-driven automation of support and services scales revenue faster than cost, closing part of that gap and lifting the GAAP margin toward 36%.
Why this confidence: Bounded by the company's own disclosed ~41% non-GAAP margin ↑, Backed by a quantified, announced headcount action ↑, Requires an expansion pace faster than the FY25-FY26 trend ↓, Assumes stock compensation intensity falls, which is not disclosed ↓
Evidence for
- FY2026 non-GAAP operating income is guided to $8.784-$8.804 billion on $21.341-$21.374 billion of revenue, roughly a 41% margin, showing the underlying cash economics of the business.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Intuit reported a 47.0% GAAP operating margin in Q3 FY2026, demonstrating how much operating leverage the platform produces at scale.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit is removing about 3,000 roles (~17% of staff) and expects most of that cost reduction to flow to the bottom line.[CNBC: Intuit CEO on the 17% workforce cut]· secondary
Evidence against
- Intuit's actual GAAP operating margin was only about 26% in FY2025 and an implied ~27% in FY2026 guidance, so 36% requires nearly a decade of recent-pace expansion compressed into five years.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
- Multi-year Anthropic and OpenAI model agreements introduce third-party AI costs that rise with product usage.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
Tax rate22.5%medium
How derived: Intuit's own long-term rate for fiscal 2026 is 24%, and this case shaves it to 22.5% because a re-rating scenario in which the shares recover restores meaningful excess tax benefits on vesting equity awards, while faster international growth in Global Business Solutions shifts a slightly larger share of profit into lower-rate jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Anchored to a disclosed company long-term rate ↑, The downward adjustment is a judgment not supported by any disclosure ↓, Tax outcomes are less volatile than growth or margin assumptions ↑
Evidence for
- Intuit's stated long-term tax rate of 24% is above the 21% US federal statutory rate, leaving room for the effective rate to fall if mix or stock-comp benefits improve.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Global Business Solutions, the segment guided to ~16% growth and reported at $3.3B in Q3 FY2026, includes international operations that broaden Intuit's geographic profit mix.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- The company itself specifies 24% as the long-term rate for fiscal 2026, and has not disclosed any plan or expectation for it to decline.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Reinvestment rate16.0%low
How derived: Intuit produced $7.7 billion of free cash flow in just nine months of fiscal 2026 with negligible physical capital requirements, and this case assumes AI lets the company serve more customers and move up-market through software rather than headcount, so growth is largely self-funding and only about 16% of after-tax operating profit is needed for product development capitalization and small tuck-ins.
Why this confidence: Grounded in a disclosed nine-month free cash flow figure ↑, Pairs the lowest reinvestment with the highest growth, a demanding combination ↓, No forward capex or M&A budget is disclosed by the company ↓
Evidence for
- Intuit generated $7.7 billion of free cash flow in the nine months ended 30 April 2026, evidencing a business that converts profit to cash with minimal capital reinvestment.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
- Intuit raised its quarterly dividend 15% to $1.20 per share and continued repurchases, choices only available when growth needs little incremental capital.[Intuit Q3 FY26 press release]· primary
Evidence against
- Sustaining mid-teens growth while spending only 16% of after-tax profit is inconsistent with Intuit's own history of funding growth through very large acquisitions such as Credit Karma and Mailchimp, both of which still appear as separate revenue lines.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
- Intuit's stated AI push, including multi-year Anthropic and OpenAI agreements and Enterprise Suite expansion, implies rising rather than falling investment intensity.[Simply Wall St: Intuit AI pivot]· secondary
Terminal growth3.0%medium
How derived: The 10-year Treasury par yield of 4.32% is the ceiling, and this case sets perpetual growth at 3.0% — modestly above long-run nominal GDP but well inside that cap — on the reasoning that if AI expands what Intuit can do for each customer, the mature-state platform captures a growing share of small-business financial spend rather than merely tracking the economy.
Why this confidence: Constrained below an observable Treasury yield ↑, Above-GDP perpetual growth requires a durable competitive advantage lasting forever ↓, Supported by observed attach-rate expansion in Online Ecosystem ↑
Evidence for
- A 3.0% perpetual rate remains well below the 4.32% 10-year Treasury par yield, keeping the terminal value mathematically coherent.[US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates]· primary
- Online Ecosystem revenue grew 19% to $2.5B in Q3 FY2026, showing Intuit is still expanding attach of payments, payroll and capital services within its existing customer base.[Intuit FY26 Q3 8-K earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Total company growth of 10.4% in Q3 FY2026 was the slowest in four quarters, a reminder that even the near-term rate is compressing rather than expanding.[Intuit Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-04-30]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating51 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 80% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 10.2% | 1.16 | 281.8% | 283M | 0.0% |
| Q2 2025 | 17.0% | 3.67 | 89.4% | 283M | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 15.1% | 15.46 | 12.9% | 282M | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 18.3% | 2.13 | 83.4% | 281M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 17.4% | 5.44 | 48.4% | 280M | -1.1% |
| Q3 2026 | 10.4% | 18.97 | 22.7% | 276M | -2.1% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Constant Maturity Treasury par yield published by the US Department of the Treasury is 4.32%, and the 10-year point is used as the risk-free rate because it matches the duration of the forecast plus terminal cash flows.
Intuit's published five-year monthly beta versus the S&P 500 is 0.96, reflecting a subscription software business whose revenue is recurring and only modestly cyclical, and it is used unadjusted rather than levered up for the 2026 drawdown because the five-year regression window already spans several volatility regimes.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of 2026 was 4.23% over the US Treasury bond rate, and this implied measure is preferred to a historical average because it is backed out of current index prices and expected cash flows and therefore matches the current discount-rate environment.
Intuit closed at $345.66 on 14 August 2026, the most recent regular-session close before the valuation date, against a 52-week range of $252.84 to $721.54 that reflects the market's sharp repricing of AI disruption risk.
Generated 8/17/2026, 2:09:34 PM · pipeline v1.1.0