/Screener/LLY
Sign in

ELI LILLY & Co

NYSE: LLY·Indianapolis, Indiana·

Price
$1,152.44
Base IV
$651.27
Your value
$651.27
-43.5%

Valuation snapshot

Above base case
$1,152.44
price
$651.27
base IV/share
Bear $265.24Bull $1,225.14

Price is between the base and bull cases. Price as of Sep 18, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026.

Researched byClaude Opus 5

Track record

Reported financials are not available yet.

Why the gap?

At $1,152.44 the market is pricing ELI LILLY & Co as if revenue grows 30.8% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 16.4% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.

Implied by price

+30.8%

revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched

Assumed here

+16.4%

researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance

Or, growth held

74.3%

operating margin reproduces the price, vs 43.0% assumed

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.

Your valuation

Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.

  • 01 Revenue growth28.0%
  • 02 Operating margin43.0%
  • 03 Risk and beta0.65
  • 04 Long-run growth2.5%
Build my valuation

About 4 minutes · no account needed

What drives the base case

All three cases →

Lilly's revenue has gone from roughly $28 billion in 2022 to about $65 billion in 2025, and management has raised its full-year 2026 target twice, most recently to $85–87 billion, after second-quarter sales climbed 48% to $23 billion. The base case takes that guidance at face value for the coming year and then assumes growth cools steadily: the same disclosures show the company is selling far more product at lower prices, and a business approaching $150 billion in sales simply cannot compound at 40% forever. Profitability supports the case — the share of each sales dollar left after manufacturing costs actually improved in the second quarter, and research spending grew more slowly than sales. Against that, Lilly is spending over $50 billion on new American factories that will not open until around 2031, so a meaningful slice of profit is being ploughed back into the business rather than returned to shareholders.

What shapes the assumptions

No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.

How confident is this estimate?

Quality checks
53/100Moderate

Some of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.

  • Scenario dispersion2.6
  • Terminal-value dependency1.3
  • Historical stability6.6
  • Margin predictability—

Why the number moved

Sequential bridge

The base case moved from $589.29 to $651.27 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.

  • Revenue forecast—
  • Operating-margin assumption—
  • Tax-rate assumption—
  • Reinvestment assumption—
  • Discount rate—

Explore StockValuer's full research

All cases, evidence, value drivers, sensitivity, quality checks, and calculation detail.

Financials

Reported quarters with derived margins, cash flow, and net cash.

Methodology

How reported facts, researched judgments and deterministic math are kept apart.

Base estimate

$651.27 -43.5%

Build