MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
Nasdaq: MU·Boise, Idaho·CIK 0000723125
- Price
- $977.50
- Base IV
- $197.43
- Your value
- $197.43
- -79.8%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Sep 18, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $977.50 the market is pricing MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC as if revenue grows 59.7% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 15.0% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+59.7%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+15.0%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth85.0%
- 02 Operating margin36.0%
- 03 Risk and beta2.05
- 04 Long-run growth2.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Micron's sales quadrupled year over year in its most recent quarter and it now keeps roughly eighty cents of operating profit per dollar of sales — a level no memory company has ever sustained. What is different this cycle is that customers have locked in three-to-five-year supply agreements worth about $100 billion, and 2027 output across the whole industry is already sold, which gives Micron unusual visibility into the next year or two. But every one of those record prices is also a signal to Samsung, SK hynix and China's CXMT to build, and that new capacity lands around 2028. This case therefore holds near the current pace for a year, takes a real but cushioned step down as supply arrives, and settles into a business that is structurally larger and more profitable than the pre-AI Micron because AI servers need far more memory per machine.
What shapes the assumptions
No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion0.0
- Terminal-value dependency4.0
- Historical stability2.7
- Margin predictability0.0
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $404.96 to $197.43 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Tax-rate assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
- Discount rate—
Base estimate
$197.43 -79.8%