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NETFLIX INC

Nasdaq: NFLX·Los Gatos, California·

Price
$77.90
Base IV
$36.71
Your value
$36.71
-52.9%

Valuation snapshot

Above bull case
$77.90
price, off scale
$36.71
base IV/share
Bear $28.08Bull $42.04

Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Sep 16, 2026 · Valuation Sep 3, 2026.

Researched byClaude Sonnet 5

Track record

Reported financials are not available yet.

Why the gap?

At $77.90 the market is pricing NETFLIX INC as if revenue grows 29.7% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 10.0% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.

Implied by price

+29.7%

revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched

Assumed here

+10.0%

researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance

Or, growth held

75.7%

operating margin reproduces the price, vs 36.0% assumed

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.

Your valuation

Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.

  • 01 Revenue growth13.3%
  • 02 Operating margin36.0%
  • 03 Risk and beta1.51
  • 04 Long-run growth3.0%
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What drives the base case

All three cases →

Netflix guided full-year 2026 revenue to $51.0-51.4 billion, up 12%-14% from 2025's $45.2 billion, and targeted a 31.5% profit margin versus 29.5% in 2025 — this case takes that guidance as the year-one anchor and assumes a gradual, orderly slowdown afterward, similar to the deceleration seen from 2024 (15.6% growth) into 2025 (15.9% growth). Management has said it intends to grow margins every year even if the pace varies, so this case keeps profitability climbing steadily as the advertising business (guided to roughly double to $3 billion in 2026) and gaming add incremental profit with limited extra cost. Reinvestment in content stays roughly proportional to revenue, consistent with the ~10% content-cost growth guided for 2026, and the tax rate drifts up gradually as the one-time stock-compensation and R&D tax benefits that held 2025's rate to 13.7% continue to fade.

What shapes the assumptions

Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.

How confident is this estimate?

Quality checks
72/100Strong

Some of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.

  • Scenario dispersion8.1
  • Terminal-value dependency2.8
  • Historical stability7.9
  • Margin predictability8.0

Why the number moved

Sequential bridge

The base case moved from $32.09 to $36.71 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.

  • Revenue forecast—
  • Operating-margin assumption—
  • Tax-rate assumption—
  • Reinvestment assumption—
  • Terminal-growth assumption—

Explore StockValuer's full research

All cases, evidence, value drivers, sensitivity, quality checks, and calculation detail.

Financials

Reported quarters with derived margins, cash flow, and net cash.

Methodology

How reported facts, researched judgments and deterministic math are kept apart.

Base estimate

$36.71 -52.9%

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