NFLX
NETFLIX INCNasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for NFLX; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$48.4B
Diluted shares
4,261,300,000
Net cash
-$2.7B
Bear
low confidence$24.62
IV / share
-65.7% vs $71.76
Revenue growth9.0% → 7.5% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0%medium
Reported growth has already decelerated from 15.9% (FY25) to 13.4% in Q2-26 with Q3 guided to 11.7%, and this case extends that slide as engagement per member falls, ad CPMs soften, and the merged Paramount–Warner Bros. plus YouTube/AI-generated video cap pricing power.
Operating margin30.0%medium
Slightly below the 31.5% currently guided, reflecting a defensive step-up in content and marketing spend plus weaker ad pricing that stalls and modestly reverses the margin expansion of the last three years.
Tax rate23.0%medium
Assumes the historically low effective rate converges above the US statutory rate as global minimum-tax and digital-services regimes bite on Netflix's heavily international revenue mix.
Reinvestment rate28.0%low
In a share-defense scenario Netflix must push cash content spend above amortization and add live/sports rights, so each incremental dollar of revenue absorbs materially more invested capital than the ~0.19 implied by clean FY26 free cash flow.
Terminal growth2.0%medium
A structurally disrupted streaming business grows below nominal GDP in perpetuity as AI-made and short-form video commoditize entertainment supply.
Base
medium confidence$41.51
IV / share
-42.2% vs $71.76
Revenue growth12.0% → 11.0% → 10.0% → 9.0% → 8.0%high
Starts just below the company's guided 2026 pace, matches the ~11–12% consensus for 2027, then glides down toward high single digits as the subscriber base matures and price increases plus a ~$3B and growing ads business carry the load.
Operating margin35.0%high
Extends the roughly 70–100bp of annual margin expansion management has delivered and signalled, helped by high-incremental-margin advertising revenue on an already-built content slate.
Tax rate20.0%medium
Assumes the effective rate normalizes toward the US statutory rate over the forecast horizon as one-off foreign-derived benefits fade, which is standard practice for a terminal-value tax assumption.
Reinvestment rate20.0%medium
Backing out the one-off break fee, roughly $10B of clean free cash flow against ~$13B of after-tax operating profit implies about a fifth of profits are reinvested in content assets and capex to sustain growth.
Terminal growth2.8%medium
A mature global subscription-plus-advertising platform should grow roughly in line with worldwide nominal consumer spending in perpetuity.
Bull
low confidence$63.30
IV / share
-11.8% vs $71.76
Revenue growth15.0% → 14.0% → 13.0% → 12.0% → 11.0%medium
Assumes advertising becomes a genuine second growth engine and live events, sport and games reaccelerate the top line back to the mid-teens rates Netflix actually printed in 2024 and 2025, breaking through the ~14% ceiling the Street currently prices in.
Operating margin40.0%medium
Advertising and price increases carry near-zero incremental content cost, so if revenue reaccelerates on a largely fixed slate the historical ~300bp/yr expansion cadence can resume toward the high-30s/40%.
Tax rate17.0%medium
Assumes Netflix sustains something close to its actual recent effective rate through favourable international structuring and stock-compensation deductions rather than converging to statutory.
Reinvestment rate15.0%low
The $25B repurchase plan signals management believes it can fund growth with modest incremental content investment, so advertising and pricing-led revenue requires little new capital per dollar of growth.
Terminal growth3.5%medium
Above nominal GDP but still below the risk-free rate, reflecting a durable global platform that continues taking share from linear TV and other ad budgets well beyond the forecast window.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year US Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated DCF and closed the most recent month at 4.74%.
Netflix's five-year regression beta sits around 1.5, in the 88th percentile of the communication-services sector, reflecting its high-multiple, discretionary-consumer risk profile.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied US ERP is the most current market-based premium and is preferred to historical averages for a live valuation.
Most recent traded price, after the roughly 9% post-Q2 drop on soft Q3 revenue guidance, used to compare against the DCF's intrinsic value per share.
Generated 8/3/2026, 1:49:51 AM · pipeline v1.0.0