ORACLE CORP
NYSE: ORCL·Austin, Texas·CIK 0001341439
- Price
- $137.29
- Base IV
- $30.18
- Your value
- $30.18
- -78.0%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 1, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $137.29 the market is pricing ORACLE CORP as if revenue grows 72.3% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 22.6% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+72.3%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+22.6%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth33.0%
- 02 Operating margin28.0%
- 03 Risk and beta2.62
- 04 Long-run growth2.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Oracle finished fiscal 2026 with revenue up 17% to $67.4 billion, its fourth straight quarter of accelerating growth, and an order backlog of $638 billion after cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% in the final quarter. Management has publicly committed to about $90 billion of revenue in fiscal 2027, and this case takes that guide largely at face value while assuming growth then decays as the base gets very large. The offset is cost: fourth-quarter gross margin fell about five points as data-centre spending ran ahead of the revenue it will eventually carry, and capital spending is guided to roughly $70 billion net next year. So this case pairs strong top-line delivery with somewhat lower profitability than today and a business that stays capital-hungry for years.
What shapes the assumptions
No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion0.9
- Terminal-value dependency3.9
- Historical stability8.2
- Margin predictability9.4
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $26.74 to $30.18 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
- Terminal-growth assumption—
- Discount rate—
Base estimate
$30.18 -78.0%