SNDK
Sandisk CorpNasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 16, 2026
What drives SNDK's base case?
base-case thesisSandisk's recent improvement reflects both higher prices and a shift toward data-center and other higher-value customers. Multi-year customer agreements should make demand more predictable, although they cannot eliminate memory-market swings. The forecast therefore keeps strong near-term growth, then settles near management's longer-term range with profitability below its stated best-case model.
What shapes the assumptions
Data-center mix shift
Data-center revenue accelerated much faster than consumer revenue in the latest disclosed quarters
Raises revenue growth
Higher-value customer mix
Recent revenue outperformance was linked to pricing and a shift toward higher-value customers
Raises operating margin
Guided effective tax burden
Management's next-quarter non-GAAP tax-rate guidance is 0.15
Informs tax rate
Capital-efficient Flash Ventures structure
Direct property spending remains small relative to the manufacturing capacity supported through joint ventures
Lowers reinvestment
Recent growth far above mature-market levels
Quarterly revenue growth accelerated sharply through Q3
Lowers terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 73.2% a year. There is not enough reported history to say how that compares with what it has actually done.
What else could explain it?›
- How much of this is timing?
- The price has risen 7.4% since this valuation was struck on 2026-08-16, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 51.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 8.3% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$13.2B
Diluted shares
157,000,000
Net cash
$3.7B
Bear
low confidence$277.29
IV / share
-83.1% vs $1,641.11
- Explicit cash flows
- $138.57
- Terminal value
- $114.94
- Net cash
- $23.79
- Intrinsic value / share
- $277.29
41.4% of the value rests on the terminal value.
Revenue growth60.0% → 16.0% → 12.0% → 8.0% → 5.0%medium
How derived: The starting point is the recent revenue acceleration and near-term guidance, but the path falls rapidly because recent gains were dominated by pricing while NAND demand, pricing, and customer deployments remain volatile.
Why this confidence: Near-term company guidance ↑, Pricing-driven recent growth ↓, Cyclical demand and pricing ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk disclosed that the Q3 year-over-year revenue increase came primarily from a 2.48 increase in average selling price per gigabyte while exabytes sold were flat, making the surge vulnerable to pricing normalization.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $10.30 billion-$10.80 billion and later targeted mid-to-high-teens annual growth for fiscal 2028-2030.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
- Sandisk said new customer agreements cover about 0.50 of fiscal 2027 bits and about 0.67 of fiscal 2028 bits.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Operating margin52.0%low
How derived: The recent profitability surge establishes strong near-term earnings power, but this case assumes pricing normalizes and the business earns materially less than management's approximately 0.75 non-GAAP fiscal 2028-2030 objective.
Why this confidence: Large historical margin swings ↓, Management's quantified long-term framework ↑, Uncertain NAND pricing normalization ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk identifies volatile demand, average-selling-price fluctuations, competition, and industry-cycle timing as risks to operating results.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's fiscal 2028-2030 model targets an approximately 0.80 non-GAAP gross margin, approximately 0.75 non-GAAP operating margin, and operating expenses near 0.05 of revenue.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Tax rate20.0%medium
How derived: The 0.21 U.S. statutory corporate rate is the conservative anchor, reduced slightly for Sandisk's international earnings mix but kept above current guidance because Malaysian incentives expire during 2028-2031.
Why this confidence: Statutory tax rate ↑, Known incentive-expiration dates ↑, Uncertain geographic profit mix ↓
Evidence for
- The U.S. federal corporate tax rate is 0.21, and Sandisk says changes applying from fiscal 2027 plus expiring Malaysian tax holidays can materially affect its effective tax rate and cash flows.[IRS Publication 542]· primary
- Sandisk's Malaysian tax holidays expire at various dates from 2028 through 2031.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk guided to a 0.15 non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal Q1 2027.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
How derived: Starting from management's capital-efficient model, this case retains 0.30 of after-tax operating profit because fulfillment commitments, working capital, and technology transitions could consume more cash than management expects.
Why this confidence: Disclosed contractual commitments ↑, Joint-venture funding complexity ↓, Management cash-flow framework ↑
Evidence for
- Sandisk disclosed $7.107 billion of minimum long-term commitments and warned that customer agreements depend on capacity, yields, supply-chain performance, and critical inputs.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's fiscal 2028-2030 framework targets adjusted free cash flow near 0.50 of revenue after taxes, capital spending, and growth-related working capital.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The terminal rate equals the Federal Reserve's 0.02 longer-run inflation objective, assuming no real growth after Sandisk's unusually strong expansion period ends.
Why this confidence: Federal Reserve inflation anchor ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Rapid technology change ↓
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve reaffirmed a 0.02 longer-run inflation objective, providing a conservative nominal-growth floor for a mature business.[Federal Reserve July 2026 Monetary Policy Report]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk expects mid-to-high-teens growth during fiscal 2028-2030 and describes AI inference as increasing storage intensity.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Base
low confidence$511.69
IV / share
-68.8% vs $1,641.11
- Explicit cash flows
- $246.28
- Terminal value
- $241.62
- Net cash
- $23.79
- Intrinsic value / share
- $511.69
47.2% of the value rests on the terminal value.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.68 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth85.0% → 24.0% → 18.0% → 16.0% → 12.0%medium
How derived: The path begins with the sharp recent acceleration and fiscal Q1 2027 guidance, then converges toward management's independently assessed mid-to-high-teens fiscal 2028-2030 framework before moderating.
Why this confidence: Quantified near-term guidance ↑, Contracted customer volumes ↑, Pricing-heavy growth composition ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $10.30 billion-$10.80 billion and said datacenter had become a key growth pillar.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
- Eight new-business-model agreements cover about 0.50 of fiscal 2027 bits and about 0.67 of fiscal 2028 bits, while management targets mid-to-high-teens fiscal 2028-2030 growth.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q3 year-over-year increase was primarily caused by a 2.48 rise in average selling price per gigabyte while exabytes sold were flat.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%medium
How derived: Management's approximately 0.75 non-GAAP fiscal 2028-2030 objective is the starting point, with a 0.07 haircut for stock compensation, execution risk, and eventual NAND pricing normalization.
Why this confidence: Quantified management framework ↑, Recent profitability trajectory ↑, Non-GAAP target and cyclical pricing ↓
Clamped from 68.0% by the guardrail.
Evidence for
- Management targets an approximately 0.80 non-GAAP gross margin and approximately 0.75 non-GAAP operating margin for fiscal 2028-2030, supported by structured customer contracts and low operating expenses.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk states that demand volatility, average-selling-price fluctuations, competition, technology transitions, and customer-deployment timing can cause operating results to fluctuate.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Tax rate15.0%medium
How derived: The assumption adopts management's 0.15 near-term tax guidance and holds it through the explicit forecast because international earnings and incentives have kept the effective rate below the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate.
Why this confidence: Direct management guidance ↑, International earnings mix ↓, Incentive expirations ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk guided to a 0.15 non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal Q1 2027, while its Q3 filing attributed a below-statutory rate to geographic earnings mix, credits, and Malaysian incentives.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The U.S. federal corporate rate is 0.21, and Sandisk's Malaysian tax holidays expire during 2028-2031.[IRS Publication 542]· primary
- Sandisk warns that fiscal-2027 tax-law changes and operating results can materially affect its effective rate and cash flows.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%medium
How derived: Management's approximately 0.75 operating-profit and 0.50 adjusted-free-cash-flow margins with a 0.15 tax rate imply reinvestment near 0.22 of after-tax operating profit, which is used as the central estimate.
Why this confidence: Management provided cash-flow bridge ↑, Capital-efficient joint-venture structure ↑, Working-capital and contract execution risk ↓
Evidence for
- Management targets adjusted free cash flow near 0.50 of revenue after taxes, capital expenditures, and working capital while targeting an approximately 0.75 non-GAAP operating margin.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk disclosed substantial supplier commitments and warns that long-term customer contracts require manufacturing capacity, production yields, supply-chain performance, and raw materials.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The rate is set 0.005 above the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective to allow modest real storage growth while remaining far below Sandisk's explicit-period growth expectations.
Why this confidence: Central-bank inflation anchor ↑, Secular data-storage demand ↑, Terminal horizon uncertainty ↓
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is 0.02, while Sandisk expects storage intensity to rise with AI inference workloads.[Federal Reserve July 2026 Monetary Policy Report]· primary
- Sandisk says AI inference is increasing storage intensity and describes an enterprise datacenter flash market reaching 1.2 zettabytes by 2030.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk identifies demand volatility, pricing fluctuations, competitive products, and technology transitions as material long-run risks.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Bull
low confidence$721.21
IV / share
-56.1% vs $1,641.11
- Explicit cash flows
- $332.32
- Terminal value
- $365.10
- Net cash
- $23.79
- Intrinsic value / share
- $721.21
50.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.75 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth105.0% → 32.0% → 24.0% → 20.0% → 16.0%low
How derived: The path assumes near-term guidance, contracted bit volumes, AI-related storage intensity, and product-density gains translate into sustained share and volume growth before converging to the high end of management's fiscal 2028-2030 range.
Why this confidence: Near-term revenue guidance ↑, Contracted bit coverage ↑, Aggressive multi-year execution assumption ↓
Evidence for
- Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance was $10.30 billion-$10.80 billion, and Sandisk's eight new customer agreements cover about 0.50 of fiscal 2027 bits and about 0.67 of fiscal 2028 bits.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
- Sandisk says its BiCS10 QLC node increases bit density by 0.60 versus BiCS8 and that AI inference is making datacenters more storage intensive.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q3 year-over-year revenue increase was overwhelmingly price-driven, with flat exabytes sold, and the company warns of volatile demand and average-selling-price fluctuations.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%low
How derived: The bull case adopts management's approximately 0.75 non-GAAP fiscal 2028-2030 objective, assuming premium customer mix, structured pricing, and low expense intensity offset normal industry pressure.
Why this confidence: Explicit management target ↑, Recent high-value mix shift ↑, Non-GAAP forward-looking measure ↓
Clamped from 75.0% by the guardrail.
Evidence for
- Management explicitly targets an approximately 0.75 non-GAAP operating margin for fiscal 2028-2030, supported by an approximately 0.80 gross margin and operating expenses near 0.05 of revenue.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- The target is non-GAAP and forward-looking, and Sandisk states it depends on estimates while pricing, competition, demand, and technology transitions can cause actual results to differ materially.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Tax rate13.0%low
How derived: The bull case stays close to Sandisk's recent 0.12 effective rate, assuming its favorable geographic earnings mix, credits, and Malaysian incentives largely persist despite the 0.15 near-term guidance.
Why this confidence: Reported effective rate ↑, Favorable international mix ↑, Tax-holiday expirations ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk reported a 0.12 effective tax rate for the three and nine months ended April 3, 2026 due to geographic earnings mix, credits, and Malaysian tax holidays.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management guided to a 0.15 non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal Q1 2027, the U.S. statutory corporate rate is 0.21, and Malaysian incentives expire during 2028-2031.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
- Corporations generally calculate U.S. federal tax using a 0.21 rate.[IRS Publication 542]· primary
Reinvestment rate16.0%low
How derived: The case retains only 0.16 of after-tax operating profit because density improvements, external joint-venture funding, customer advances, and low direct property spending allow growth with limited incremental company cash.
Why this confidence: Capital-efficient joint ventures ↑, Technology density improvements ↑, High growth requires working capital ↓
Evidence for
- Sandisk describes its manufacturing model and two-dimensional scaling strategy as capital efficient, while BiCS10 QLC raises bit density by 0.60 versus BiCS8.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
- Fiscal 2026 direct property purchases were $177 million despite rapid revenue expansion, and customer contract liabilities provided advance funding.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk's long-term agreements require adequate capacity, yields, supply-chain performance, and raw materials, and failure can trigger penalties or termination.[Sandisk Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate adds 0.01 of real growth to the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective, reflecting durable data-volume expansion while remaining well below the explicit forecast.
Why this confidence: Secular storage-volume growth ↑, Inflation anchor ↑, Indefinite forecast horizon ↓
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is 0.02, and Sandisk expects AI inference to make datacenters more storage intensive over time.[Federal Reserve July 2026 Monetary Policy Report]· primary
- Sandisk describes a 1.2-zettabyte enterprise datacenter flash opportunity by 2030 and targets mid-to-high-teens fiscal 2028-2030 growth.[Sandisk 2026 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- Sandisk warns that industry cycles, competitive pricing, technology transitions, and customer-deployment timing can materially change long-run results.[Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating51 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
- Diluted share count grew 8% year over year, which reduces per-share participation in business growth.→ per-share economics
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — | -1.37 | — | 145M | — |
| Q2 2025 | — | 0.32 | — | 145M | — |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6% | -0.12 | 56.1% | 145M | 0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 22.6% | 2.94 | 315.3% | 149M | 2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | 61.2% | 6.28 | 1838.1% | 156M | 7.6% |
| Q3 2026 | 251.0% | 19.06 | 15456.9% | 157M | 8.3% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The latest available market close before the valuation date, August 14, 2026, reports a 10-year Treasury par yield of 0.0468.
The one-year beta is used because Sandisk has traded independently only since February 2025 and therefore lacks a reliable five-year standalone return history.
Clamped from 4.35 by the guardrail.
The July 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month implied U.S. equity risk premium of 0.0418 is used as a forward-looking market estimate rather than a historical average.
The value is Sandisk's regular-session closing price on August 14, 2026, the final trading day before the valuation date.
Generated 8/16/2026, 5:36:04 AM · pipeline v1.1.0