TSLA
Tesla, Inc.NasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for TSLA; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$97.9B
Diluted shares
3,538,000,000
Net cash
$1.3B
Bear
low confidence$11.75
IV / share
-96.3% vs $319.69
Revenue growth5.0% → 4.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%medium
Assumes the maturing automotive core stalls and Optimus/robotaxi fail to scale, leaving growth near GDP-plus.
Operating margin8.0%medium
Persistent price competition and heavy AI/robotics spend keep margins well below the historic mid-teens peak.
Tax rate21.0%high
In a weak scenario Tesla loses EV/energy tax-credit tailwinds and pays close to the full statutory rate.
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
Heavy capital outlays continue but generate weak incremental returns, so a large share of NOPAT is reinvested per unit of growth.
Terminal growth2.0%high
A commoditized auto business grows only with the broad economy in perpetuity.
Base
medium confidence$33.94
IV / share
-89.4% vs $319.69
Revenue growth12.0% → 15.0% → 18.0% → 15.0% → 12.0%medium
Auto stabilizes while robotaxi (2027+) and Optimus ramp drive a mid-decade reacceleration that fades as the base grows.
Operating margin12.0%medium
Margins recover toward the historical operating range as software/energy mix improves and AI spend normalizes.
Tax rate17.0%medium
A blended rate reflecting partial credit benefits trending toward the statutory marginal rate.
Reinvestment rate30.0%medium
Sustained capex for capacity and autonomy consistent with a maturing but still-expanding franchise.
Terminal growth3.0%high
Mature-stage growth modestly above inflation, bounded by the risk-free rate.
Bull
low confidence$91.08
IV / share
-71.5% vs $319.69
Revenue growth20.0% → 28.0% → 30.0% → 25.0% → 20.0%low
Assumes robotaxi and Optimus reach commercial scale, opening large new revenue pools on top of auto/energy.
Operating margin18.0%low
High-margin software, autonomy and robotics mix lifts operating margin above the historical hardware peak.
Tax rate13.0%medium
Continued credits, R&D benefits and favorable geography hold the effective rate below statutory.
Reinvestment rate25.0%low
Asset-light autonomy and robotics revenue generate strong returns, so less NOPAT is reinvested per point of growth.
Terminal growth4.0%medium
A durable autonomy/robotics platform sustains above-GDP growth into the terminal period, just under the risk-free ceiling.
Market inputs researched
Tesla trades far more volatile than the market, so a beta near 1.8 captures its systematic risk.
Forward-looking implied ERP is preferred over historical averages for current cost-of-capital estimates.
Most recent market close for the equity being valued.
Generated 7/24/2026, 3:36:19 PM · pipeline v1.0.0