TSLA
Tesla, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Aug 26, 2026
What drives TSLA's base case?
base-case thesisTesla's recent quarterly growth has improved even though full-year revenue and margins weakened. The base case assumes the transition period ends as new production lines and energy-storage capacity ramp. Profitability recovers, but substantial AI and manufacturing investment remains necessary.
What shapes the assumptions
New vehicle production lines
Vehicle deliveries
Raises revenue growth
Energy-storage ramp
GWh deployed
Raises revenue growth
Manufacturing cost reduction
Operating margin
Raises operating margin
AI and factory expansion
Capital expenditure
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
No revenue growth rate in a sensible range reproduces today's price — the market appears to be valuing something this model does not capture.
What else could explain it?›
- How much of this is timing?
- The price has risen 7.5% since this valuation was struck on 2026-08-26, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 41.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Quarterly revenue growth YoY
Measures comparable quarterly sales momentum and directly tests whether the recovery from the recent annual decline is occurring.
25.5%
reported2. Quarterly operating margin
Measures how much sales convert into operating profit and captures pricing, product mix, and manufacturing efficiency.
1.4%
reported3. Annual capital expenditure
Tracks the cash investment required to expand factories, computing capacity, products, and infrastructure.
$20B
estimated4. Annual energy-storage deployments
Measures the scale of Tesla's fastest-growing disclosed non-automotive operating platform.
13.5 GWh
reported5. Annual vehicle deliveries
Measures the volume base of Tesla's largest business and helps distinguish unit growth from price and mix effects.
480,126 vehicles
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$103.6B
Diluted shares
3,540,000,000
Net cash
$1.3B
Bear
low confidence$5.78
IV / share
-98.5% vs $376.37
- Explicit cash flows
- $1.67
- Terminal value
- $3.74
- Net cash
- $0.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $5.78
64.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
bear revenue growth (avg 4%) runs well above the trailing -16% trend
Revenue growth-10.0% → 2.0% → 8.0% → 10.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: The starting point is the supplied 2025 decline and weak recent profitability; this case assumes continued vehicle pricing pressure and only gradual recovery despite energy and AI investment.
Why this confidence: Recent revenue contraction and low profitability ↓, Energy-storage deployment growth ↑, Five-year forecast uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla reported that 2025 automotive sales revenue declined 9%, driven by lower deliveries and lower average selling prices.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla reported over 480000 vehicle deliveries and 13.5 GWh of energy-storage deployments in Q2 2026.[Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries Release]· primary
Operating margin6.0%medium
How derived: The supplied quarterly margins are mostly below 0.06 recently, so the bear case allows only a modest recovery toward a normalized margin supported by cost reductions.
Why this confidence: Recent margin compression ↓, Management focus on cost reductions ↑, Pricing and product-mix risk ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla's supplied Q2 2026 operating margin was only about 0.014.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's Q2 2024 operating margin was 0.063, showing the company has previously operated at a higher level.[Tesla Q2 2024 Financial Summary]· primary
Tax rate15.0%low
How derived: The model starts below a mature statutory burden because Tesla's global tax attributes and investment spending can reduce near-term cash taxes, but assumes normalization as earnings recover.
Why this confidence: Tax attributes and geographic mix ↓, Long-term earnings normalization ↑, Limited comparable tax history in the prompt ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Tesla's results include substantial global tax attributes and investment-related factors that can make the effective rate differ from the statutory rate.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's future tax expense may rise as profitability and taxable income increase.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate70.0%medium
How derived: The starting point is Tesla's stated plan for 2026 capital expenditures to exceed 20000000000, so the bear case assumes heavy reinvestment continues while returns on that spending remain uncertain.
Why this confidence: Explicitly disclosed large capital program ↑, Uncertain payoff from AI and fleet investments ↓, Strong liquidity position ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
Evidence for
- Tesla expects 2026 capital expenditures to exceed 20000000000, driven by AI infrastructure, factories, research and development, and fleet assets.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla generated 8634000000 of operating cash flow in the first six months of 2026, providing internal funding for investment.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The terminal rate is set near long-run nominal economic growth because the bear case assumes Tesla eventually becomes a mature global manufacturer without a durable above-market advantage.
Why this confidence: Mature terminal-market assumption ↓, Potential new software and energy businesses ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
Evidence for
- Tesla operates across mature automotive, energy, service, and infrastructure markets that constrain perpetual growth.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla states that it is expanding AI-enabled products, energy storage, manufacturing capacity, and its product roadmap.[Tesla 2025 Annual Report Summary]· primary
Base
low confidence$20.22
IV / share
-94.6% vs $376.37
- Explicit cash flows
- $5.26
- Terminal value
- $14.60
- Net cash
- $0.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $20.22
72.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
base revenue growth (avg 13%) runs well above the trailing -16% trend
Revenue growth-2.0% → 12.0% → 20.0% → 18.0% → 15.0%medium
How derived: The starting point is the supplied 2026 recovery in recent quarterly revenue growth; this case assumes new production lines and energy growth restore mid-teens growth after a near-term transition year.
Why this confidence: Recent quarterly revenue growth turned positive ↑, Automotive decline and pricing pressure ↓, New production capacity disclosed by management ↑
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla reported Q2 2026 deliveries of 480126 vehicles and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 GWh.[Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries Release]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla reported that 2025 total revenue fell to 94830000000 and automotive sales revenue declined 9%.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin10.0%medium
How derived: The supplied recent margins are depressed versus 2024, so the base case assumes gradual recovery through manufacturing efficiency, better mix, and energy growth to a 0.1 mature margin.
Why this confidence: Historical ability to earn positive margins ↑, Recent margin deterioration ↓, Energy and software mix potential ↑
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla's Q2 2024 financial summary reported a 0.063 operating margin and improving energy-storage gross profit.[Tesla Q2 2024 Financial Summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's supplied Q2 2026 operating margin was 0.014, materially below the earlier level.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate18.0%low
How derived: The base case assumes a gradual move toward a normalized global cash-tax burden as current tax attributes and investment deductions become less dominant.
Why this confidence: Global tax complexity ↓, Expected earnings normalization ↑, Limited forward tax disclosure ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Tesla's global operations and investment profile create tax-rate variability across periods.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Higher future taxable income could push Tesla's effective rate above the near-term rate.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%medium
How derived: The base case accepts management's large 2026 investment program but assumes revenue and operating profit eventually scale faster than reinvestment needs.
Why this confidence: Explicit investment guidance ↑, Strong liquidity and operating cash flow ↓, Uncertain returns on AI investment ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
Evidence for
- Tesla expects 2026 capital expenditures above 20000000000 for AI, factories, R&D, and fleet expansion.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla held 15220000000 in cash and cash equivalents and 28310000000 in short-term investments at June 30, 2026.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The terminal rate assumes Tesla retains a modest edge in electrification, storage, and software while ultimately growing only slightly faster than the broad economy.
Why this confidence: Multiple potential growth businesses ↑, Mature automotive exposure ↓, Terminal assumptions are highly sensitive ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
Evidence for
- Tesla is expanding energy storage, AI-enabled products, manufacturing lines, and software capabilities.[Tesla 2025 Annual Report Summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's automotive sales declined 9% in 2025 amid lower deliveries and lower average selling prices.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$60.75
IV / share
-83.9% vs $376.37
- Explicit cash flows
- $13.51
- Terminal value
- $46.87
- Net cash
- $0.37
- Intrinsic value / share
- $60.75
77.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull revenue growth (avg 23%) runs well above the trailing -16% trend
Revenue growth5.0% → 25.0% → 35.0% → 30.0% → 22.0%low
How derived: The starting point is improving recent quarterly growth plus disclosed expansion across vehicles, storage, AI, and software; this case assumes those businesses scale rapidly and offset near-term automotive weakness.
Why this confidence: Six new production lines and strong Q2 deployments ↑, Recent annual revenue decline ↓, Execution risk across several new businesses ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla said it would ramp six new production lines across vehicles, Bots, energy storage, and battery manufacturing in 2026.[Tesla 2025 Annual Report Summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's 2025 automotive sales revenue declined 9% and total revenue declined to 94830000000.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin16.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes energy, software, and fleet economics produce meaningful mix improvement beyond the historical recovery case, lifting normalized profitability to 0.16.
Why this confidence: Software and energy mix potential ↑, Current margin is very low ↓, Execution and competition risk ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Evidence for
- Tesla describes AI, software, fleet-based profits, and energy-storage software as areas for future revenue and profit growth.[Tesla 2025 Annual Report Summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's Q2 2026 operating margin was 0.014, showing the distance between current profitability and this assumption.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate20.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes higher sustained taxable earnings eventually consume tax attributes and produce a mature global cash-tax burden near 0.2.
Why this confidence: Higher projected taxable income ↑, Global tax complexity ↓, Sparse forward tax guidance ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- A larger and more profitable global business should generate a more normalized tax burden over time.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's investment and geographic structure can continue to create tax-rate differences from a simple normalized assumption.[Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes management's unusually large AI and factory spending creates scalable revenue and profit, allowing reinvestment to fall relative to operating profit after the ramp.
Why this confidence: Scalable software and fleet economics ↑, Large disclosed capital program ↓, Unproven returns on new initiatives ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
Evidence for
- Tesla is investing in AI compute, manufacturing lines, fleet assets, and energy infrastructure intended to support future growth.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla expects capital expenditures above 20000000000 in 2026, indicating a very capital-intensive near-term plan.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes Tesla remains a durable platform in electric transport, storage, autonomy, and software, supporting terminal growth modestly above broad economic growth.
Why this confidence: Several addressable growth platforms ↑, Automotive remains the largest business ↓, Terminal value dominates long-run DCF outcomes ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
Evidence for
- Tesla identifies energy storage, AI-enabled products, software platforms, autonomy, and fleet-based profits as growth opportunities.[Tesla 2025 Annual Report Summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Tesla's automotive sales declined 9% in 2025, demonstrating that its largest business remains exposed to mature-market competition and pricing pressure.[Tesla 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating41 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 72% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The bear-to-bull range spans 272% of the base value — the outcome is highly uncertain.→ scenarios
- The tax rate assumption is low-confidence.→ tax rate
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 7.8% | 0.78 | 223.0% | 3.5B | 0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | -9.2% | 0.19 | 125.9% | 3.52B | 1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | -11.8% | 0.04 | -89.2% | 3.52B | 1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 11.6% | 1.13 | 44.3% | 3.53B | 0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 15.8% | 0.41 | 116.4% | 3.54B | 0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 25.5% | -0.31 | -843.5% | 3.54B | 0.6% |
Valuation history every run
Why intrinsic value changed
Why
Quarterly revenue growth YoY moved from an unreported prior value to 25.5%, as reported in Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q.
Measured by
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY25.5%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
- Annual energy-storage deployments13.5 GWhreported
- Annual vehicle deliveries480,126 vehiclesreported
Why
No sourced event is linked to this change yet — the researched assumption moved without a cited driver observation behind it.
Why
Quarterly operating margin moved from an unreported prior value to 1.4%, as reported in Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q.
Measured by
- Quarterly operating margin1.4%reported
- Annual capital expenditure$20Bestimated
Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled
Material event timeline
6/30/2026
Quarterly operating margin moved from an unreported prior value to 1.4%, as reported in Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q.
Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ↗Market inputs researched
The 10-year U.S. Treasury par yield on 2026-08-25 is used as the long-duration risk-free rate.
The U.S. Auto and Truck industry beta is used as a sector proxy because the supplied capital structure does not provide a Tesla-specific debt beta input.
The January 2026 implied U.S. equity risk premium is used as the market compensation for equity risk.
The observed TSLA share price on 2026-08-26 is used as the current market price input.
Generated 8/26/2026, 10:01:06 AM · pipeline v1.2.0