APH
AMPHENOL CORP /DE/NYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives APH's base case?
base-case thesisAmphenol enters the forecast with strong organic demand, orders above sales, and a larger fiber-connectivity portfolio. CommScope contributes a full-year revenue base while the decentralized operating model gradually improves the acquired operations. Growth and profitability remain above the company's older history, but both normalize as acquisition comparisons and exceptional data-center spending fade.
What shapes the assumptions
Q2 orders were 23% above sales
Quarterly book-to-bill
Raises revenue growth
CommScope's expected 2026 sales were raised to $4.6 billion
Acquired annual sales contribution
Raises revenue growth
Adjusted profit per sales dollar rose from 22.4% in Q4 2024 to 29.8% in Q2 2026
Quarterly adjusted profitability
Raises operating margin
The adjusted tax rate was reset to 27%
Adjusted effective tax rate
Raises tax rate
2025 free cash flow equaled about 19% of sales
Annual free-cash-flow margin
Lowers reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 20.3% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 24.3% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 41.7% operating margin, against the 28.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 60.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Quarterly organic sales growth
Measures comparable sales growth excluding acquisitions and currency, making it the clearest indicator of underlying demand.
30.0%
reported2. Quarterly adjusted profit margin
Measures adjusted operating profit retained from each sales dollar and captures product mix, pricing, and integration efficiency.
29.8%
reported3. Quarterly book-to-bill
Compares orders received with quarterly sales, providing a near-term measure of demand coverage.
1.23
reported4. Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix
Measures the share of quarterly sales generated by the segment most exposed to high-speed, fiber, and data-center connectivity.
61.5%
derived5. Annual free-cash-flow margin
Measures annual operating cash remaining after capital expenditure as a share of sales, indicating how efficiently accounting profit becomes deployable cash.
19.0%
derivedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$29B
Diluted shares
1,289,200,000
Net cash
-$2.2B
Bear
low confidence$34.44
IV / share
-58.0% vs $82.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $10.05
- Terminal value
- $26.12
- Net cash
- -$1.74
- Intrinsic value / share
- $34.44
75.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth12.0% → 8.0% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0%medium
How derived: The forecast starts from 0.30 organic growth in Q2 2026 and near-term sales guidance above the prior year, then assumes the acquisition boost laps, unusually strong data-center demand normalizes, and cyclical end markets pull growth toward 0.04.
Why this confidence: Near-term management guidance and order data ↑, Five-year normalization of acquisition and AI-related demand ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
- Quarterly book-to-bill1.23reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
Evidence for
- Organic sales growth slowed from 0.37 in Q4 2025 to 0.33 in Q1 2026 and 0.30 in Q2 2026, consistent with deceleration from an exceptional level.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 orders were $10.7 billion and book-to-bill was 1.23, while Q3 sales guidance called for 0.50 to 0.52 reported growth.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin26.0%medium
How derived: The target is held near the 0.262 adjusted full-year 2025 level rather than the tariff-assisted 0.298 reached in Q2 2026, reflecting weaker volume leverage and slower-than-planned integration.
Why this confidence: Reported multi-year margin history ↑, Uncertain CommScope integration outcome and temporary tariff recovery ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly adjusted profit margin29.8%reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Evidence for
- The 2025 Form 10-K reported a 0.262 adjusted margin and said recent acquisitions operated below the company average.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Adjusted margin reached 0.298 in Q2 2026, although the quarter included an $80 million net tariff-recovery benefit.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate28.5%medium
How derived: The assumption begins with management's 0.27 adjusted rate after its China reassessment and adds a buffer for further adverse jurisdictional mix or tax outcomes.
Why this confidence: Management's explicit 2026 rate reset ↑, Future jurisdictional mix and tax disputes ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management raised the adjusted tax rate to 0.27 because of China tax developments and a continuing shift of income toward higher-tax jurisdictions.[Amphenol Q1 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The adjusted tax rate was 0.255 in 2025 and 0.24 in 2024, below this assumption.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: Half of after-tax operating profit is reserved for working capital, capacity, technology, integration, and acquisition-related reinvestment because the enlarged business has grown inventories and receivables and depends on continued product investment.
Why this confidence: Filed working-capital and cash-flow data ↑, Acquisitions make reported reinvestment volatile and difficult to normalize ↓
Measured by
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Evidence for
- Between year-end 2025 and June 2026, receivables rose to $6.79 billion from $4.72 billion and inventories rose to $4.55 billion from $3.42 billion.[Amphenol Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Amphenol generated $4.4 billion of free cash flow in 2025, exceeding adjusted net income and demonstrating strong cash conversion.[Amphenol FY2025 results]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The perpetual rate is limited to 0.025 because connectors should grow with long-run nominal economic activity, while product cycles, customer demand swings, and acquisition dependence prevent extrapolating current growth.
Why this confidence: Broad end-market diversification ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
Evidence for
- The company identifies several served end markets as cyclical and subject to rapid periods of reduced demand.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Amphenol serves a diversified set of electronics markets and reported organic growth across most end markets in Q2 2026.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Base
low confidence$55.51
IV / share
-32.4% vs $82.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.54
- Terminal value
- $42.71
- Net cash
- -$1.74
- Intrinsic value / share
- $55.51
76.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth18.0% → 12.0% → 9.0% → 7.0% → 6.0%medium
How derived: The first year captures the remaining CommScope annualization and strong backlog after 0.30 Q2 organic growth, followed by a steady fade toward 0.06 as acquisition comparisons normalize.
Why this confidence: Management guidance and book-to-bill above one ↑, Uncertain duration of exceptional IT datacom demand ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
- Quarterly book-to-bill1.23reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
Price implies: 20.3% vs our 10.4% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management raised expected 2026 CommScope sales to $4.6 billion and guided Q3 company sales to $9.3-$9.4 billion.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Organic growth declined sequentially from 0.37 in Q4 2025 to 0.30 in Q2 2026, indicating that current growth is already moderating.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin28.5%medium
How derived: The target sits between the 0.273 Q1 and 0.298 Q2 adjusted margins, allowing continuing integration gains but removing the Q2 tariff-recovery benefit and some unusually strong volume leverage.
Why this confidence: Consistent recent margin expansion ↑, Integration and sales-mix sensitivity ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly adjusted profit margin29.8%reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Price implies: 41.7% vs our 28.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Adjusted margin improved from 0.224 in Q4 2024 to 0.275 in Q4 2025, 0.273 in Q1 2026, and 0.298 in Q2 2026.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q2 2026 result included an $80 million tariff recovery, and the 2025 filing noted that recent acquisitions initially operated below the company average.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate27.0%high
How derived: The model adopts management's reset adjusted rate of 0.27 because it reflects the China reassessment and the enlarged company's shift toward higher-tax jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Explicit management rate change confirmed in two quarters ↑, Long-term geographic profit mix can change ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Amphenol explicitly increased its adjusted effective tax rate to 0.27 following China tax developments and a shift toward higher-tax jurisdictions.[Amphenol Q1 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Adjusted tax rates were lower at 0.255 in 2025 and 0.24 in 2024.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate42.0%low
How derived: The model reinvests 0.42 of after-tax operating profit, balancing strong historical cash conversion against the working-capital, capacity, product-development, and integration needs of a still-growing acquired portfolio.
Why this confidence: Reported cash flow and balance-sheet data ↑, Acquisition spending is irregular and excluded from conventional free cash flow ↓
Measured by
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Evidence for
- The first half of 2026 required materially more receivables and inventory as sales and the acquired business expanded.[Amphenol Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Free cash flow was $4.4 billion in 2025 and $1.2 billion in Q2 2026, showing that growth has not required all operating earnings to be retained.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The perpetual rate is set at 0.03 to reflect durable growth in electronic content and Amphenol's diversified market exposure without extending today's data-center surge indefinitely.
Why this confidence: Diversified markets and long record of product expansion ↑, Perpetual growth is highly sensitive and cannot be directly observed ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
Evidence for
- The company sells across IT datacom, defense, aerospace, automotive, industrial, communications networks, and mobile-device markets, reducing dependence on one end market.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Amphenol warns that some end markets are cyclical and can undergo rapid demand reductions.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$88.17
IV / share
+7.4% vs $82.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $20.59
- Terminal value
- $69.32
- Net cash
- -$1.74
- Intrinsic value / share
- $88.17
78.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth24.0% → 17.0% → 13.0% → 10.0% → 8.0%low
How derived: The path assumes the 1.23 book-to-bill, 0.30 organic growth, and stronger-than-expected CommScope contribution signal a multi-year expansion in high-speed and fiber connectivity rather than a brief spending spike.
Why this confidence: Strong order coverage and segment-level organic growth ↑, Requires unusually strong demand to persist for several years ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
- Quarterly book-to-bill1.23reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 organic growth was 0.30, Communications Solutions organic growth was 0.42, and orders exceeded sales by 0.23.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Company organic growth has slowed for three consecutive reported quarters from 0.37 to 0.33 to 0.30.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin31.0%low
How derived: The target extends the rise to 0.298 in Q2 2026 on the assumption that acquired fiber operations reach Amphenol-level efficiency and high-value data-center products sustain favorable mix after the tariff benefit disappears.
Why this confidence: High Communications Solutions profitability ↑, Target exceeds the consolidated reported record ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly adjusted profit margin29.8%reported
- Communications Solutions quarterly sales mix61.5%derived
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Evidence for
- Communications Solutions produced $1.81 billion of operating income on $5.38 billion of Q2 2026 sales, a derived segment margin of approximately 0.336.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Consolidated adjusted margin was 0.262 for full-year 2025, and Q2 2026's 0.298 included an $80 million tariff-recovery benefit.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate26.0%medium
How derived: The rate falls modestly below management's current 0.27 level as integration stabilizes the geographic mix, but remains above 2024's 0.24 because the China-related reset is treated as structural.
Why this confidence: Multi-year adjusted tax history ↑, Assumes partial improvement from management's current rate ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The adjusted tax rate was 0.255 in 2025, close to the assumed long-run rate.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management increased the adjusted rate to 0.27 because of China tax developments and more income in higher-tax jurisdictions.[Amphenol Q1 2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate34.0%low
How derived: Only 0.34 of after-tax operating profit is reinvested because this case assumes Amphenol preserves its strong cash conversion while earning high incremental returns from fiber, high-speed, and acquisition-integration spending.
Why this confidence: Strong reported cash conversion ↑, High-growth case may require more capacity and working capital than assumed ↓
Measured by
- Annual free-cash-flow margin19.0%derived
Evidence for
- Full-year 2025 free cash flow was $4.4 billion versus adjusted net income of approximately $4.27 billion.[Amphenol FY2025 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Receivables and inventory expanded substantially in the first half of 2026, and acquisition cash outlays are not deducted in the company's free-cash-flow measure.[Amphenol Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%low
How derived: The perpetual rate reaches 0.035 because this case treats rising electronic content, fiber adoption, and Amphenol's broad market access as durable share-growth engines, while still remaining below the final explicit-year rate.
Why this confidence: Broad exposure to increasing electronic and fiber content ↑, Aggressive perpetual assumption and very long horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly organic sales growth30.0%reported
Evidence for
- Management reported strong organic growth in most end markets and highlighted expanding high-speed and fiber-optic capabilities for data-center applications.[Amphenol Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 filing identifies economic slowdowns, rapid cyclical demand declines, technology competition, and acquisition-integration difficulties as material risks.[Amphenol 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating60 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 77% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 26.2% | 0.37 | -14.2% | 1.27B | 1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | 47.7% | 0.46 | 13.1% | 1.27B | 0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | 56.5% | 0.88 | 112.9% | 1.27B | 0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | 53.4% | 0.95 | 152.6% | 1.28B | 1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 58.4% | 0.64 | 41.4% | 1.29B | 1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | 55.0% | 0.93 | 5.9% | 1.29B | 1.3% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The input is the September 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied premium for the S&P 500.
The input is APH's split-adjusted closing price on September 4, 2026, the latest completed trading session.
Generated 9/6/2026, 2:09:52 AM · pipeline v1.2.0