/Screener/APP
Sign in

AppLovin Corp

Nasdaq: APP·Palo Alto, California·

Price
$281.31
Base IV
$159.40
Your value
$159.40
-43.3%

Valuation snapshot

Above bull caseOut of date
$281.31
price, off scale
$159.40
base IV/share
Bear $98.21Bull $238.89

Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026.

Researched byClaude Opus 5

Track record

Reported financials are not available yet.

Why the gap?

At $281.31 the market is pricing AppLovin Corp as if revenue grows 41.1% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 23.6% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.

Implied by price

+41.1%

revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched

Assumed here

+23.6%

researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.

Your valuation

Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.

  • 01 Revenue growth38.0%
  • 02 Operating margin60.0%
  • 03 Risk and beta2.53
  • 04 Long-run growth3.0%
Build my valuation

About 4 minutes · no account needed

What drives the base case

All three cases →

AppLovin's advertising revenue went from $1.84 billion in 2023 to $5.48 billion in 2025, and the first half of 2026 alone was $3.77 billion, up 56%. The company has told investors the September quarter should grow 46-48%, so the near-term picture is anchored by its own forecast rather than guesswork. From there this scenario assumes the growth rate steps down each year in the same orderly way it already has — from 77% a year ago to 53% this June quarter — because a bigger base is simply harder to grow. The finance chief has said profitability should settle a notch below today's record level once higher computing costs are absorbed, so this case holds profits near but slightly under the current mark. The result is a business that is still exceptional today but is treated as an ordinary large advertising platform by the end of the forecast.

What shapes the assumptions

No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.

How confident is this estimate?

Quality checks
54/100Moderate

Some of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.

  • Scenario dispersion5.6
  • Terminal-value dependency3.7
  • Historical stability0.0
  • Margin predictability7.1

Why the number moved

No prior valuation bridge is available yet. Future recalculations will explain what moved.

Explore StockValuer's full research

All cases, evidence, value drivers, sensitivity, quality checks, and calculation detail.

Financials

Reported quarters with derived margins, cash flow, and net cash.

Methodology

How reported facts, researched judgments and deterministic math are kept apart.

Base estimate

$159.40 -43.3%

Build