BA
BOEING CONYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives BA's base case?
base-case thesisThe central case treats Boeing's 2026 improvement as the beginning of a multi-year production recovery rather than a one-quarter event. The record backlog supports higher deliveries, while the 737 rate increase and planned 2027 introductions add revenue capacity. Manufacturing losses narrow as volume and execution improve, but capital spending, certification work, and difficult defense contracts prevent an immediate return to peak economics.
What shapes the assumptions
Higher aircraft production
The 737 program began moving from 42 toward 47 airplanes per month in Q2 2026
Raises revenue growth
Improving company profitability
Q2 company margin improved from negative 0.008 in 2025 to positive 0.006 in 2026
Raises operating margin
High-margin services mix
Global Services generated 5.344 billion dollars of Q2 revenue at a 0.181 margin
Raises operating margin
Capacity and tooling investment
First-half capital expenditures rose by 0.9 billion dollars year over year
Raises reinvestment
Federal rate plus state taxes
The federal statutory rate is 0.21 and Boeing disclosed a 0.028 state-and-local component for 2025
Raises tax rate
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 39.1% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 8.8% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 25.6% operating margin, against the 7.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 37.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 4.5% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries
Aircraft deliveries are the clearest physical measure of Boeing's ability to convert its backlog and production capacity into reported revenue and customer cash.
171 airplanes
reported2. Second-quarter Commercial Airplanes margin
This measures whether higher aircraft deliveries are overcoming abnormal production costs and converting commercial revenue into profit.
-2.7%
reported3. Second-quarter total company backlog
Backlog measures contracted and expected future work, providing visibility into potential aircraft, defense, and services revenue.
$715B
reported4. Second-quarter company operating margin
The company-wide quarterly margin captures the combined effect of commercial execution, defense charges, services profitability, and corporate costs.
0.6%
reported5. Second-quarter free cash flow
This tracks how effectively Boeing turns deliveries and accounting profit into cash after capital expenditures.
$600M
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$94B
Diluted shares
790,600,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$25.98
IV / share
-87.7% vs $210.51
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.94
- Terminal value
- $18.04
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $25.98
69.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0% → 2.5%medium
How derived: First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.11 and Q2 revenue grew 0.08, but this path assumes growth continues to decelerate because certification, supply-chain, and production-execution constraints prevent Boeing from fully converting its record backlog.
Why this confidence: Two reported 2026 quarters establish the current direction ↑, Aircraft delivery timing remains highly sensitive to certification and suppliers ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Evidence for
- Year-over-year revenue growth slowed from 0.14 in Q1 2026 to 0.08 in Q2 2026, consistent with a decelerating forecast.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Boeing ended Q2 2026 with a record 715 billion dollars of backlog and more than 6,200 commercial airplanes, which could support faster growth.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin4.5%low
How derived: The company produced only a 0.013 first-half 2026 margin while Commercial Airplanes and Defense remained near or below break-even, so this case allows only a limited recovery despite the profitable services business.
Why this confidence: Current segment margins are directly reported ↑, Five-year contract performance and abnormal-cost outcomes are uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter Commercial Airplanes margin-2.7%reported
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 company margin was 0.013, while Q2 Commercial Airplanes and Defense margins were negative 0.027 and negative 0.002.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Global Services earned a 0.181 Q2 2026 margin, providing a meaningful profitable offset to manufacturing weakness.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: Starting with the 0.21 U.S. federal rate, this case adds approximately 0.03 for state, local, and foreign taxes and assumes tax credits do not fully offset them once profits normalize.
Why this confidence: Federal and state components are disclosed in the tax reconciliation ↑, Deferred-tax-asset utilization depends on future taxable income ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
Evidence for
- Boeing's 2025 tax reconciliation showed a 0.21 federal statutory rate and a 0.028 state-and-local component before other adjustments.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Boeing reported 21.065 billion dollars of deferred tax assets that may reduce future cash taxes if sustained profitability permits realization.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%low
How derived: Measured as reinvestment divided by after-tax operating profit, the rate is set high because first-half capital spending rose to 2.0 billion dollars and Boeing expects full-year spending to exceed 2025 while it expands production capacity.
Why this confidence: Near-term capital spending is disclosed ↑, Customer advances and inventory unwind make long-run reinvestment volatile ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 capital expenditures were 2.0 billion dollars versus 1.1 billion dollars a year earlier, and Boeing expected 2026 capital expenditures to exceed 2025.[Boeing Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Boeing generated 0.6 billion dollars of free cash flow in Q2 2026 as higher deliveries and working-capital timing began to release cash.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Although Boeing forecasts 0.04 annual passenger-traffic growth through 2045, this case uses 0.02 indefinitely because mature manufacturers cannot outgrow the broader economy forever and Boeing may lose share through execution setbacks.
Why this confidence: Published industry demand forecast supports durable growth ↑, A perpetual assumption extends far beyond the company's forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Evidence for
- Boeing forecasts mature network-carrier fleets to grow only about 0.026 annually, supporting a lower company growth rate in perpetuity.[Boeing 2026 Commercial Market Outlook]· estimate
Evidence against
- Boeing forecasts passenger traffic to grow about 0.04 annually and nearly 44,000 new airplanes to be delivered over 20 years.[Boeing 2026 Market Outlook Release]· estimate
Base
low confidence$61.74
IV / share
-70.7% vs $210.51
- Explicit cash flows
- $17.65
- Terminal value
- $44.09
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $61.74
71.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth10.0% → 8.0% → 6.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%medium
How derived: First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.11, and the central path broadly sustains that recovery initially as 737 output moves toward 47 per month before growth moderates with Boeing's increasing scale.
Why this confidence: The opening forecast is close to reported first-half growth ↑, Certification and production-rate approvals remain external dependencies ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Price implies: 39.1% vs our 6.2% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.11, commercial deliveries reached 314, and Boeing began transitioning 737 production toward 47 per month.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 737-7, 737-10, and 777X still required certification work, with first deliveries of those variants not expected until 2027.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin7.5%low
How derived: Starting from a 0.013 first-half company margin, this case assumes higher aircraft volume absorbs abnormal production costs while the 0.181-margin services operation supports a normalized blended margin of 0.075.
Why this confidence: Improvement is visible in comparable quarterly results ↑, The target requires several loss-making programs to improve simultaneously ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter Commercial Airplanes margin-2.7%reported
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Price implies: 25.6% vs our 7.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- The company moved from a negative 0.008 margin in Q2 2025 to a positive 0.006 margin in Q2 2026, while Global Services retained a 0.181 margin.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Commercial Airplanes still lost money at a negative 0.027 margin, and Defense recorded a 280 million dollar VC-25B charge in Q2 2026.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate23.0%medium
How derived: The rate starts with the 0.21 federal statutory rate and adds a smaller normalized allowance for state and foreign taxes, partly offset by research credits and deferred tax assets.
Why this confidence: The statutory starting point is unambiguous ↑, Timing of credits and deferred-tax-asset realization is uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
Evidence for
- The federal corporate tax rate is 0.21, and Boeing's 2025 reconciliation identified additional state and foreign tax effects.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Boeing reported large deferred tax assets and research-and-development credits that could hold the realized cash-tax rate below the normalized assumption.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
How derived: Measured as reinvestment divided by after-tax operating profit, this case assumes Boeing must retain 0.45 of normalized profit to fund higher production, tooling, and working capital, but that customer advances and inventory deliveries reduce the burden over time.
Why this confidence: Current capital expenditures and production investments are disclosed ↑, The reinvestment denominator is depressed during the recovery ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Evidence for
- Boeing spent 2.0 billion dollars on capital expenditures in the first half of 2026 and was activating an additional low-rate 737 production line.[Boeing Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter operating cash flow rose to 1.364 billion dollars as delivery volume improved, indicating that part of the ramp can release rather than consume working capital.[Boeing Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The perpetual rate is set below Boeing's 0.04 traffic forecast and near mature-carrier fleet growth because replacement demand is durable but long-run company growth should converge toward nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Replacement demand reduces reliance on fleet expansion alone ↑, Perpetual growth cannot be observed and is highly valuation-sensitive ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Evidence for
- Boeing expects roughly half of nearly 44,000 new aircraft deliveries through 2045 to replace older airplanes, supporting durable demand even after fleet growth matures.[Boeing 2026 Market Outlook Release]· estimate
Evidence against
- Boeing's forecast of 0.04 annual passenger-traffic growth and nearly 0.80 fleet expansion through 2045 could support a higher rate during the explicit industry forecast period.[Boeing 2026 Commercial Market Outlook]· estimate
Bull
low confidence$107.66
IV / share
-48.9% vs $210.51
- Explicit cash flows
- $28.45
- Terminal value
- $79.21
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $107.66
73.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth14.0% → 11.0% → 8.0% → 6.0% → 4.0%low
How derived: Beginning with 0.11 first-half growth, this path assumes the 737 reaches and sustains 47 per month, the 787 remains stable at eight per month, and the 737-7, 737-10, and 777X begin contributing in 2027.
Why this confidence: Backlog and announced production capacity support the opportunity ↑, The forecast requires timely certification and near-flawless supplier execution ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Evidence for
- Boeing's commercial backlog exceeded 6,200 airplanes, 737 production was transitioning toward 47 per month, and three major variants were expected to begin deliveries in 2027.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 revenue growth was only 0.08, and the contemplated new variants were still subject to certification and production execution.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin10.0%low
How derived: This case assumes high delivery volume eliminates abnormal production costs, Defense avoids further major charges, and the 0.181-margin services segment helps lift the consolidated business to a 0.10 margin.
Why this confidence: Reported manufacturing margins are improving ↑, A 0.10 target requires a large improvement from current profitability ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter Commercial Airplanes margin-2.7%reported
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Evidence for
- Commercial Airplanes improved its quarterly margin from negative 0.051 in Q2 2025 to negative 0.027 in Q2 2026, while Services remained strongly profitable at 0.181.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 still included a 280 million dollar VC-25B loss, and both Commercial Airplanes and Defense remained unprofitable.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: The optimistic case uses the 0.21 federal statutory rate because Boeing's deferred tax assets and research credits are assumed to offset most incremental state and foreign tax costs during the modeled recovery.
Why this confidence: Statutory federal rate and deferred tax assets are documented ↑, The duration and usability of tax attributes are uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter company operating margin0.6%reported
Evidence for
- The U.S. corporate statutory rate is 0.21, and Boeing had 21.065 billion dollars of deferred tax assets at year-end 2025.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Boeing's tax reconciliation includes state, local, foreign, and cross-border items, so the sustainable rate could exceed the federal rate after tax assets are consumed.[Boeing 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Measured as reinvestment divided by after-tax operating profit, this case assumes Boeing funds its factory ramp but converts accumulated inventory and customer advances into cash efficiently enough to retain only 0.40 of normalized profit.
Why this confidence: Recent delivery growth has already improved cash generation ↑, High growth normally requires substantial inventory and capacity investment ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter commercial airplane deliveries171 airplanesreported
- Second-quarter free cash flow$600Mreported
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 operating cash flow reached 1.364 billion dollars and free cash flow reached 0.6 billion dollars as deliveries increased.[Boeing Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half capital expenditures nearly doubled to 2.0 billion dollars, and management expected full-year investment to exceed 2025.[Boeing Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: This rate follows the lower end of Boeing's long-run fleet and traffic outlook, assuming Boeing maintains its industry position and benefits from both global fleet expansion and replacement demand.
Why this confidence: Twenty-year fleet and replacement forecasts support durable demand ↑, Maintaining current market share indefinitely is uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Second-quarter total company backlog$715Breported
Evidence for
- Boeing forecasts the global commercial fleet to expand nearly 0.80 by 2045 and passenger traffic to grow about 0.04 annually.[Boeing 2026 Commercial Market Outlook]· estimate
Evidence against
- About half of projected deliveries replace existing airplanes rather than expanding the fleet, and network-carrier fleets are forecast to grow only about 0.026 annually.[Boeing 2026 Commercial Market Outlook]· estimate
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating37 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 71% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The operating margin assumption is low-confidence.→ operating margin
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -1.5% | -3.16 | -519.0% | 618.6M | 1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | 17.7% | -3.04 | 52.6% | 753.4M | 22.9% |
| Q2 2025 | 34.9% | -0.26 | 96.2% | 756.6M | 22.8% |
| Q3 2025 | 30.4% | 0.31 | 109.9% | 759.9M | 22.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 14.0% | -1.85 | 39.3% | 788M | 4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | 8.0% | 0.8 | 401.9% | 790.6M | 4.5% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The input is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year par yield reported for 2026-09-01, the latest official observation available for a long-duration U.S.-dollar valuation.
The market input is Boeing's published five-year monthly equity beta, which captures its observed sensitivity to broad equity-market movements.
The input is the trailing-12-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium published for 2026-07-01.
The input is Boeing's 2026-09-04 regular-session closing price in U.S. dollars, the latest close before the valuation date.
Generated 9/6/2026, 4:53:34 AM · pipeline v1.2.0