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Booking Holdings Inc.

Nasdaq: BKNG·Norwalk, Connecticut·

Price
$160.28
Base IV
$177.95
Your value
$177.95
11.0%

Valuation snapshot

Below base caseOut of date
$160.28
price
$177.95
base IV/share
Bear $117.54Bull $241.94

Price is between the bear and base cases. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Sep 17, 2026.

Researched byClaude Opus 5

Track record

Reported financials are not available yet.

Why the gap?

At $160.28 the market is pricing Booking Holdings Inc. as if revenue grows 4.8% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 7.2% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.

Implied by price

+4.8%

revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched

Assumed here

+7.2%

researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance

Or, growth held

30.7%

operating margin reproduces the price, vs 34.0% assumed

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.

Your valuation

Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.

  • 01 Revenue growth7.5%
  • 02 Operating margin34.0%
  • 03 Risk and beta1.05
  • 04 Long-run growth3.0%
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What drives the base case

All three cases →

Booking grew revenue 11% in 2024 and 13% in 2025, and management guides to high-single-digit growth in 2026 despite a soft Q3 caused by Middle East travel disruption. The base case follows management's stated 8% long-term growth goal for the next few years, then fades toward 6% as the business matures. Profit margins rise modestly from about 33% as the $650M cost program delivers, taxes stay near the current 23%, and the asset-light model needs little reinvestment, leaving most profit free for shareholders.

What shapes the assumptions

Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.

How confident is this estimate?

Quality checks
60/100Moderate

Some of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.

  • Scenario dispersion6.5
  • Terminal-value dependency2.1
  • Historical stability4.9
  • Margin predictability7.0

Why the number moved

Sequential bridge

The base case moved from $211.55 to $177.95 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.

  • Revenue forecast—
  • Operating-margin assumption—
  • Tax-rate assumption—
  • Reinvestment assumption—
  • Terminal-growth assumption—

Explore StockValuer's full research

All cases, evidence, value drivers, sensitivity, quality checks, and calculation detail.

Financials

Reported quarters with derived margins, cash flow, and net cash.

Methodology

How reported facts, researched judgments and deterministic math are kept apart.

Base estimate

$177.95 11.0%

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