BLK
BlackRock, Inc.NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives BLK's base case?
base-case thesisBlackRock's recent growth reflects record client inflows, rising markets, technology demand, and a larger private-markets business. This case assumes those engines remain healthy but become less exceptional over time. Profitability improves as acquired businesses are integrated, although reported costs keep it below management's preferred measure.
What shapes the assumptions
$868 billion of trailing net inflows supports recurring fees
total net inflows
Raises revenue growth
Technology contract value grew 15% in Q2 2026
technology annual contract value growth
Raises revenue growth
Private markets supplied 12% of 2025 base fees from only 2% of average assets
private-markets fee mix
Raises operating margin
Acquisition amortization and integration spending remain material
acquisition-related expense
Lowers operating margin
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 22.4% a year. There is not enough reported history to say how that compares with what it has actually done.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 68.1% operating margin, against the 39.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 53.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 5.4% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Total assets under management, period end
Client assets are the principal fee base, so their level reflects net flows, investment markets, acquisitions, and currency movements.
$15T
reported2. Total net inflows, trailing twelve months
Net client deposits measure organic expansion of the fee base independently from changes caused by investment markets.
$868B
reported3. Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months
This isolates recurring fee growth generated by net new client business and reveals whether inflows are entering higher- or lower-fee products.
10.0%
reported4. Technology annual contract value growth
Growth in contracted Aladdin, Preqin, and related subscription value indicates the durability and expansion rate of recurring technology revenue.
15.0%
reported5. Adjusted profitability, full year
This measures recurring operating efficiency before acquisition-related and other specified adjustments and shows whether revenue is scaling faster than core costs.
44.1%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$27.3B
Diluted shares
164,647,766
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$454.64
IV / share
-59.6% vs $1,126.15
- Explicit cash flows
- $147.70
- Terminal value
- $306.93
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $454.64
67.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth8.0% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.5%medium
How derived: Starting from the recent 0.31 quarterly increase and 0.10 trailing organic base-fee growth, this path assumes acquisition benefits fade, markets normalize, and low-fee index products capture more of future inflows.
Why this confidence: Recent reported growth and flow data ↑, Revenue sensitivity to future markets and product mix ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
Evidence for
- BlackRock warns that changes in asset mix can shift assets toward lower-fee products and cause fee growth to trail asset growth.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The company reported 0.31 year-over-year revenue growth, $868 billion of trailing net inflows, and 0.10 organic base-fee growth in Q2 2026.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin35.0%medium
How derived: The target stays near the latest 0.347 GAAP quarterly margin because acquisition amortization, integration spending, and compensation prevent the recent adjusted margin from translating fully into reported profitability.
Why this confidence: Directly reported GAAP margin ↑, Uncertain acquisition integration costs ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Evidence for
- The Q2 2026 GAAP operating margin was 0.347, while acquisition-related amortization and other adjustments remained material.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin reached 0.459, its highest level in almost five years.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate26.0%medium
How derived: This rate begins with the 0.252 Q2 2026 effective rate and adds a modest buffer for fewer discrete benefits and exposure to higher-tax jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Recent quarterly and annual tax disclosures ↑, Volatile discrete and cross-border tax items ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The Q2 2026 effective tax rate was 0.252, compared with 0.269 in the prior-year quarter.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- BlackRock's 2025 full-year effective tax rate was 0.23 and included several structural and jurisdictional benefits.[BlackRock 2025 annual report]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%low
How derived: The assumption allocates more cash to integration, technology, seed investments, and private-market commitments because the enlarged platform may require sustained spending even as growth slows.
Why this confidence: Disclosed commitments and investment purchases ↑, Reinvestment rate requires judgment about acquisitions and working capital ↓
Measured by
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Evidence for
- At March 31, 2026, BlackRock had approximately $2.7 billion of commitments to fund sponsored products, and first-half net investment purchases totaled $690 million.[BlackRock 2026 Forms 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- BlackRock still returned a record $5 billion to shareholders in 2025 after funding its growth investments, demonstrating a capital-light core model.[BlackRock 2025 full-year results]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The mature-state rate assumes only modest nominal expansion because structural ETF and retirement demand is partly offset by fee pressure and sensitivity to market levels.
Why this confidence: Documented structural industry demand ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
Evidence for
- BlackRock identifies ETFs, retirement solutions, private markets, outsourcing, and technology as structural growth channels.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- BlackRock states that market volatility, competition, investment performance, regulation, and movement toward lower-fee products can reduce revenue and earnings.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Base
low confidence$645.08
IV / share
-42.7% vs $1,126.15
- Explicit cash flows
- $195.12
- Terminal value
- $449.96
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $645.08
69.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth12.0% → 9.0% → 7.5% → 6.0% → 5.0%medium
How derived: Starting from 0.31 recent quarterly growth and 0.10 trailing organic base-fee growth, the central path allows acquisition contributions and strong flows to persist initially before growth converges toward a mature asset manager's rate.
Why this confidence: Multiple reported growth indicators ↑, Market-dependent fee base ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
Price implies: 22.4% vs our 7.9% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Trailing organic base-fee growth was 0.10 in Q2 2026, technology revenue grew 0.13, and management targets at least 0.05 through-the-cycle organic base-fee growth.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results and 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The company cautions that market movements and lower-fee asset mix can make revenue growth materially weaker than AUM growth.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin39.0%medium
How derived: The target rises above the latest 0.347 GAAP quarter toward the 0.371 full-year 2024 level as integration costs moderate, while remaining below management's adjusted profitability target.
Why this confidence: Multi-year reported profitability history ↑, Gap between GAAP and adjusted results ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Price implies: 68.1% vs our 39.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- BlackRock produced a 0.371 GAAP margin in 2024 and a 0.459 adjusted margin in Q2 2026, supporting recovery as scale grows.[BlackRock filings and Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q2 2026 GAAP margin was only 0.347 because acquisition-related amortization, compensation, and other costs remain substantial.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: The rate normalizes between the 0.23 full-year 2025 rate and the 0.242 adjusted first-half 2026 rate, reducing the effect of temporary discrete benefits.
Why this confidence: Normalized rate aligns with recent adjusted results ↑, Jurisdictional and discrete tax variability ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- BlackRock reported an adjusted effective tax rate of 0.242 for the first half of 2026.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The GAAP first-half rate was 0.216 and the 2025 rate was 0.23, showing that discrete and structural tax benefits can pull the rate lower.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate17.0%low
How derived: The rate reflects a capital-light fee business that can return substantial cash while still funding technology, product launches, seed investments, and integration of GIP, HPS, and Preqin.
Why this confidence: Cash-return and investment disclosures ↑, No company-reported DCF reinvestment measure ↓
Measured by
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Evidence for
- BlackRock returned $5 billion to shareholders in 2025 while technology ACV grew 0.16 and the company continued investing in growth.[BlackRock 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 liquidity was reduced by $690 million of net investment purchases, and the expanded private-markets platform carries material funding commitments.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The mature rate assumes BlackRock grows roughly with long-run nominal economic activity as retirement assets, ETFs, private markets, and technology offset gradual fee compression.
Why this confidence: Broad and diversified structural growth channels ↑, Terminal assumptions extend indefinitely ↓
Measured by
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
Evidence for
- BlackRock's 2030 plan identifies ETFs, private markets, whole-portfolio solutions, and technology as durable growth engines and targets at least 0.05 organic base-fee growth through a cycle.[BlackRock 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- BlackRock acknowledges that market declines, competitive pricing, regulation, and product-mix changes can impair fee growth.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$876.93
IV / share
-22.1% vs $1,126.15
- Explicit cash flows
- $246.39
- Terminal value
- $630.54
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $876.93
71.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth16.0% → 13.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 6.0%medium
How derived: Beginning with 0.31 recent quarterly growth, 0.10 trailing organic base-fee growth, and 0.15 technology ACV growth, this path assumes sustained share gains and successful cross-selling across iShares, private markets, and Aladdin.
Why this confidence: Broad-based reported momentum ↑, Requires sustained market and execution strength ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 revenue grew 0.31, trailing net inflows reached $868 billion, iShares exceeded $6 trillion, and technology ACV grew 0.15.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Institutional index strategies had $76 billion of first-half 2026 net outflows, and market appreciation accounted for $1.1 trillion of the latest quarterly AUM increase.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin42.0%medium
How derived: The target assumes scale and integration lift the GAAP margin materially from 0.347 while retaining a prudent gap to the 0.459 latest adjusted result and management's adjusted through-cycle target.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated adjusted operating leverage ↑, GAAP conversion depends on integration costs fading ↓
Measured by
- Total assets under management, period end$15Treported
- Technology annual contract value growth15.0%reported
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Evidence for
- The Q2 2026 adjusted margin reached 0.459, and management's through-cycle adjusted target is at least 0.45.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results and 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The latest GAAP margin was 0.347 and first-half expenses rose with compensation, distribution, technology, and acquisition-related items.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate22.0%medium
How derived: The rate is close to the 0.216 first-half 2026 GAAP result and assumes BlackRock retains recurring benefits from its international structure without repeating every discrete benefit.
Why this confidence: Observed first-half effective rate ↑, Dependence on future tax rules and discrete items ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The first-half 2026 GAAP effective tax rate was 0.216, and the 2025 full-year rate was 0.23.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The Q2 2026 effective rate rose to 0.252 when the first quarter's stock-compensation benefits were absent.[BlackRock Q2 2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate13.0%low
How derived: The assumption reflects strong incremental returns from scalable software and fee-based products, allowing rapid growth with a smaller share of after-tax operating profit retained.
Why this confidence: Evidence of scalable fee and software revenue ↑, Uncertain future acquisition and seed-capital requirements ↓
Measured by
- Adjusted profitability, full year44.1%reported
Evidence for
- BlackRock generated record inflows and double-digit technology growth while returning $5 billion to shareholders in 2025, indicating high scalability.[BlackRock 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The company has material sponsored-product commitments and continues to fund seed investments, technology, and acquisition integration.[BlackRock Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes BlackRock remains a share winner in expanding global capital markets and sustains modest real growth through ETFs, retirement, private assets, and recurring technology revenue.
Why this confidence: Long record of asset and flow growth ↑, Perpetual share-gain assumption ↓
Measured by
- Total net inflows, trailing twelve months$868Breported
- Organic base-fee growth, trailing twelve months10.0%reported
Evidence for
- Over the five years through 2025, BlackRock attracted nearly $2.5 trillion of net inflows and increased AUM by more than 0.60, while technology and private markets broadened its fee sources.[BlackRock 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The business remains exposed to capital-market declines, competition, regulatory change, and fee compression over time.[BlackRock 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating53 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
- Diluted share count grew 5% year over year, which reduces per-share participation in business growth.→ per-share economics
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | — | 8.6 | — | 149.61M | — |
| Q1 2025 | 11.6% | -7.7 | -144.9% | 156.63M | 4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | 12.9% | 8.16 | -10.1% | 156.25M | 4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 25.2% | 8.09 | -6.0% | 165.18M | 10.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 27.0% | -6.58 | 14.5% | 165M | 5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | 30.6% | 6.79 | -16.8% | 164.65M | 5.4% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The input is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year constant-maturity par yield reported for September 4, 2026.
The input uses the July 1, 2026 trailing-payout implied premium estimated directly from the U.S. equity market and Treasury yield.
The input is BLK's September 4, 2026 closing price in U.S. dollars.
Generated 9/6/2026, 3:32:01 AM · pipeline v1.2.0