BMY
BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CONYSEValuation snapshot
Below base casePrice is between the bear and base cases.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives BMY's base case?
base-case thesisBMS is replacing older products with a Growth Portfolio that has expanded at a double-digit pace. That transition should support near-term sales, but Eliquis is too large for new products to replace immediately when U.S. generic entry becomes possible in 2028. Cost savings preserve much of the company's profitability, and sales gradually recover as newer medicines mature.
What shapes the assumptions
Growth Portfolio reached 0.564 of first-half 2026 revenue
$13.787 billion first-half Growth Portfolio revenue
Raises revenue growth
Eliquis increased 0.19 in the first half of 2026
$8.617 billion first-half Eliquis revenue
Raises revenue growth
Eliquis represented 0.30 of 2025 company revenue
$14.443 billion 2025 Eliquis revenue
Lowers revenue growth
Productivity program targets $2.0 billion of annualized savings
Savings targeted by the end of 2027
Raises operating margin
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows -13.7% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 2.1% a year — so the price assumes far less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 18.7% operating margin, against the 34.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 41.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Growth Portfolio annual revenue
Annual sales from newer and strategically prioritized medicines measure the portfolio's ability to replace products losing exclusivity.
$26B
reported2. Eliquis annual revenue
Annual Eliquis sales measure both the scale of BMS's largest revenue and cash-flow source and the amount exposed to upcoming generic competition.
$14B
reported3. Legacy Portfolio annual revenue
Annual legacy-product sales show the pace at which generic competition is removing revenue that newer medicines must replace.
$22B
reported4. Core operating profit rate, annual
This consistently calculated rate tracks profit after product costs, selling expenses, and research spending but before acquired intangible amortization, acquired IPRD, interest, and tax.
35.4%
derived5. Research and development expense, annual
Annual research and development spending measures the resources committed to replenishing the drug portfolio and supporting future launches.
$10B
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$49.2B
Diluted shares
2,048,000,000
Net cash
-$34.1B
Bear
low confidence$59.47
IV / share
-11.0% vs $66.82
- Explicit cash flows
- $15.23
- Terminal value
- $60.91
- Net cash
- -$16.67
- Intrinsic value / share
- $59.47
102.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth0.0% → -7.0% → -13.0% → -5.0% → 0.0%medium
How derived: The forecast starts from 0.04 year-to-date growth but assumes accelerating generic erosion, including permitted U.S. Eliquis entry in 2028, overwhelms continued Growth Portfolio expansion.
Why this confidence: Known product-exclusivity schedule ↑, Uncertain speed of generic substitution and pipeline launches ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 Legacy Portfolio revenue declined 0.04, including declines of 0.49 for Revlimid and 0.71 for Pomalyst/Imnovid.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
- Settled generic manufacturers are permitted to launch U.S. Eliquis alternatives in 2028, while European exclusivity expires in November 2026.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- BMS raised 2026 revenue guidance to $49.0 billion-$50.0 billion after total second-quarter revenue increased 0.06 and Growth Portfolio revenue increased 0.15.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin28.0%medium
How derived: The 2026 guidance implies an underlying operating profit rate near 0.36 before other items, but this case reduces it to 0.28 as high-margin legacy drugs lose exclusivity and launch spending remains elevated.
Why this confidence: Current gross-margin and expense guidance ↑, Future product mix after exclusivity losses ↓
Measured by
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter non-GAAP gross margin declined by 0.012 year over year to 0.714, while selling and administrative expense increased 0.08.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- BMS expects approximately $2.0 billion of additional annualized productivity savings by the end of 2027.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate21.0%medium
How derived: The assumption raises the 2026 guided rate of 0.18 to 0.21 to allow for less favorable jurisdictional earnings mix, global minimum taxes, and unresolved tax examinations.
Why this confidence: Current-year company guidance ↑, Jurisdictional mix and tax-contingency uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- BMS disclosed material tax examinations and stated that future rates can change with earnings mix, tax reserves, and interpretations of tax law.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The company maintained full-year 2026 non-GAAP tax-rate guidance of approximately 0.18, and the year-to-date GAAP rate was 0.182.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate23.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes weak conversion of investment into growth because BMS must continue funding clinical development, launches, manufacturing, and working capital even as legacy revenue contracts.
Why this confidence: Reported research and capital spending ↑, Reinvestment is not a directly reported accounting measure ↓, Pipeline productivity is inherently uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 research and development expense was $5.608 billion and capital expenditure was $652 million, showing that sustaining the portfolio requires substantial continuing investment.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- BMS is targeting approximately $2.0 billion of annualized productivity savings by the end of 2027, which could improve investment efficiency.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth1.0%low
How derived: Long-run growth is limited to 0.01 because recurring patent expirations, regulated pricing, and generic competition are assumed to absorb most gains from new medicines.
Why this confidence: Documented patent-expiry cycle ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- BMS reports near-term generic pressure across Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, and Abraxane and permits U.S. Eliquis generic entry in 2028 under settlements.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management says it is building a portfolio intended to support sustainable growth into the 2030s and beyond.[BMS 2025 Annual Report]· primary
Base
low confidence$135.48
IV / share
+102.8% vs $66.82
- Explicit cash flows
- $22.54
- Terminal value
- $129.60
- Net cash
- -$16.67
- Intrinsic value / share
- $135.48
95.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth2.0% → -3.0% → -8.0% → -1.0% → 2.0%medium
How derived: The central path carries forward current low-single-digit company growth, then models a temporary Eliquis-led contraction around 2028 before Growth Portfolio medicines restore modest growth.
Why this confidence: Current results and full-year guidance ↑, Known Eliquis exclusivity timing ↑, Uncertain launch adoption and generic erosion ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
Price implies: -13.7% vs our -1.6% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Total revenue increased 0.04 in the first half of 2026 while Growth Portfolio revenue increased 0.13 and represented more than half of company revenue.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue increased 0.17 in both 2024 and 2025, reaching $26.409 billion.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Eliquis generated $14.443 billion in 2025, and settlement agreements permit U.S. generic entry in 2028, making the modeled contraction highly sensitive to replacement-product execution.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin34.0%medium
How derived: The target is set below the roughly 0.36 operating-profit rate implied by 2026 gross-margin and operating-expense guidance, allowing for adverse product mix while retaining most planned productivity savings.
Why this confidence: Detailed company cost guidance ↑, Product-mix transition through 2028 ↓
Measured by
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Price implies: 18.7% vs our 34.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- At the midpoint, 2026 guidance for a 0.695 gross margin and $16.5 billion of operating expenses on $49.5 billion of revenue implies an operating-profit rate of approximately 0.362 before other items.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· estimate
- BMS continues to target approximately $2.0 billion of additional annualized savings by the end of 2027.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 non-GAAP gross margin declined to 0.714 from 0.726, and operating-expense guidance rose to $16.5 billion because of pipeline and launch investment.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate18.0%high
How derived: The forecast uses the company's approximately 0.18 full-year guidance because the first-half reported rate of 0.182 closely corroborates it.
Why this confidence: Management guidance corroborated by year-to-date results ↑, Potential discrete tax and acquisition charges ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- BMS maintained 2026 non-GAAP tax-rate guidance of approximately 0.18, and its first-half GAAP effective rate was 0.182.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 GAAP effective tax rate was 0.244 because of nondeductible acquisition charges, jurisdictional mix, and tax-reserve changes.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate18.0%low
How derived: The rate reflects continued research, launch, and manufacturing needs but assumes productivity savings and portfolio prioritization keep incremental investment below the bear case.
Why this confidence: Consistent reported investment disclosures ↑, Research spending is already expensed in operating profit ↓, Future working-capital needs are uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- BMS invested $9.951 billion in research and development during 2025 and spent $652 million on capital projects in the first half of 2026.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Research and development expense increased 0.16 in the first half of 2026, while management raised operating-expense guidance to fund pipeline programs and launches.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: A 0.02 mature-growth rate assumes successful new medicines broadly offset recurring patent losses without allowing BMS to outgrow the economy indefinitely.
Why this confidence: Broad disclosed pipeline and launch slate ↑, Long-run patent and clinical-success uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- Management identifies more than ten prospective product launches and more than thirty major life-cycle opportunities by the end of the decade.[BMS 2025 Annual Report]· primary
Evidence against
- The company's disclosures show that generic entry repeatedly causes rapid declines in major legacy products, including 2025 declines of 0.49 for Revlimid and 0.62 for Sprycel.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$229.62
IV / share
+243.6% vs $66.82
- Explicit cash flows
- $29.71
- Terminal value
- $216.57
- Net cash
- -$16.67
- Intrinsic value / share
- $229.62
94.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth4.0% → 1.0% → -3.0% → 2.0% → 3.5%low
How derived: The upside path assumes the 0.15 quarterly Growth Portfolio expansion remains broad enough that launches and life-cycle extensions largely absorb the Eliquis and other legacy losses.
Why this confidence: Broad current growth across several medicines ↑, Dependence on clinical, regulatory, and commercial execution ↓, Large Eliquis replacement requirement ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter Growth Portfolio revenue increased 0.15, led by increases of 0.29 for Reblozyl, 0.41 for Breyanzi, 0.60 for Camzyos, and 0.81 for Cobenfy.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
- The company has identified more than ten new-product launch opportunities and more than thirty major life-cycle indications by the end of the decade.[BMS 2025 Annual Report]· primary
Evidence against
- Legacy Portfolio revenue declined 0.15 in 2025, and U.S. Eliquis generic entry is permitted in 2028 under existing settlements.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin38.0%low
How derived: The target moves above the roughly 0.36 rate implied by current guidance because the bull case assumes the $2.0 billion savings program is retained and higher-volume growth medicines provide operating leverage.
Why this confidence: Specified and dated cost-saving target ↑, Margin exceeds current guidance-implied level ↓, Future launch spending ↓
Measured by
- Eliquis annual revenue$14Breported
- Legacy Portfolio annual revenue$22Breported
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- BMS expects approximately $2.0 billion of additional annualized savings by the end of 2027 after 2025 selling and administrative expense declined 0.14.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 non-GAAP gross margin declined by 0.012, and management increased operating-expense guidance to $16.5 billion for pipeline and launch investment.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate16.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes a favorable geographic profit mix and tax credits reduce the burden modestly below 2026 guidance, near the second-quarter non-GAAP rate of 0.165.
Why this confidence: Recent quarterly non-GAAP result ↑, Assumption is below full-year guidance ↓, Tax examinations and earnings-mix volatility ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate excluding specified items was 0.165.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Full-year 2026 guidance remains approximately 0.18, while the first-half GAAP rate was 0.182 and the 2025 GAAP rate was 0.244.[BMS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate14.0%low
How derived: The low rate assumes portfolio prioritization, digital tools, and productivity savings let BMS convert its existing research and launch platform into growth without proportionate increases in capital and working capital.
Why this confidence: Documented productivity program ↑, Assumed research productivity is not directly observable ↓, Expanding pipeline may require additional spending ↓
Measured by
- Core operating profit rate, annual35.4%derived
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- BMS's productivity program targets approximately $2.0 billion of annualized savings, while 2025 research and development expense declined 0.11.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 research and development expense rose 0.16, and the company increased operating-expense guidance because of added pipeline and launch investment.[BMS Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The 0.025 long-run rate assumes BMS repeatedly replenishes expiring products and sustains growth broadly in line with nominal economic expansion, without preserving the current double-digit portfolio rate forever.
Why this confidence: Diversified development pipeline ↑, Perpetual-horizon clinical and patent uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Growth Portfolio annual revenue$26Breported
- Research and development expense, annual$10Breported
Evidence for
- BMS reported 49 compounds in development across more than 40 disease areas as of July 30, 2026 and states an objective of sustainable growth into the 2030s.[BMS investor facts]· primary
Evidence against
- BMS's major medicines face finite exclusivity, including potential U.S. Eliquis generic entry in 2028 and minimum Opdivo Qvantig U.S. exclusivity through 2028.[BMS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating41 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 96% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 8.4% | 2.59 | 21.4% | 2.03B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | -5.6% | 0.83 | -34.1% | 2.04B | 0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6% | 1.74 | 71.5% | 2.04B | 0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 2.8% | 2.94 | 13.3% | 2.04B | 0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6% | 0.37 | -55.5% | 2.05B | 0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | 5.7% | 1.51 | -13.6% | 2.05B | 0.5% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year nominal constant-maturity yield reported for September 4, 2026.
The value is the forward-looking U.S. implied equity risk premium using trailing twelve-month adjusted payout as of July 1, 2026.
The value is BMY's regular-session closing price in U.S. dollars on September 4, 2026.
Generated 9/6/2026, 12:22:13 PM · pipeline v1.2.0