BX
Blackstone Inc.NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives BX's base case?
base-case thesisBlackstone just posted its strongest revenue growth quarter in a year (+36% year over year) on record assets of $1.35 trillion, and management has told investors to expect double-digit growth in its core management-fee business again in 2027. This scenario assumes that pace gradually cools from today's elevated level toward the steadier, high-single-to-low-double-digit growth of its fee-earning asset base, which itself has grown from about $718 billion in 2023 to $962 billion today. Profit margins and the tax rate are assumed to stay close to their recent levels, and the firm keeps reinvesting a modest slice of earnings while returning most of the rest to shareholders, as it has been doing.
What shapes the assumptions
Record AUM and inflows continue at a moderating pace
Total AUM $1.35T, +11% YoY, with roughly $70B of quarterly inflows (Q2 2026)
Raises revenue growth
Management's own 2027 fee-growth guidance
Reaffirmed double-digit base management fee growth guidance for 2027
Raises revenue growth
Margin holds near its trailing level
GAAP operating margin roughly steady at 46.4%-46.7% (H1 2026 vs FY2025)
Informs operating margin
Stable effective tax rate with gradual normalization
Effective tax rate of 15.7%-15.8% in FY2024-25
Raises tax rate
85%-of-earnings payout policy anchors reinvestment
Dividend policy targeting ~85% of Distributable Earnings paid out
Informs reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 20.7% a year. There is not enough reported history to say how that compares with what it has actually done.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 65.3% operating margin, against the 46.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 51.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 2.2% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Total Assets Under Management (period-end)
The total capital Blackstone manages across all strategies; it is the base on which almost all management-fee revenue and future performance revenue is ultimately earned.
$1.4T
reported2. Fee-Earning Assets Under Management (period-end)
The subset of AUM that actually generates management fees today; it drives recurring fee revenue more directly than total AUM and underpins operating leverage.
$962B
reported3. GAAP Operating Margin (total revenue less total expenses, annual/period basis)
A direct, comparable measure of how much of each revenue dollar becomes operating profit; it is the empirical base for the DCF's target operating margin assumption.
46.5%
derived4. Total Dry Powder (period-end, uncalled capital available to deploy)
Committed but undeployed capital across Blackstone's funds; it is a leading indicator of future deployment activity, transaction fees, and eventual performance revenue.
$213B
reported5. Effective Income Tax Rate (annual)
The share of pre-tax income Blackstone actually pays in taxes, materially reduced by income allocated to noncontrolling Holdings unitholders; it feeds the DCF's tax-rate assumption directly.
15.7%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$16.1B
Diluted shares
799,897,435
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$56.58
IV / share
-58.9% vs $137.68
- Explicit cash flows
- $21.69
- Terminal value
- $34.90
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $56.58
61.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth2.0% → -3.0% → 2.0% → 4.0% → 5.0%low
How derived: Total GAAP revenue swung from $22.58B (2021) to $8.52B (2022, -62.3%) to $8.02B (2023, -5.8%) as markets repriced after the 2021 peak; bear assumes today's AI/credit-fueled boom (record $1.35T AUM, +36% revenue last quarter) is similarly temporary, giving a mild Y1 slowdown, a Y2 contraction as fundraising and realizations cool, then a slow recovery toward mid-single-digit fee-driven growth by Y5.
Why this confidence: Revenue history includes a -62% year and a +270% year within the last five years ↓, Bear path is a stylized downturn scenario, not tied to a specific identified credit event ↓, Grounded in the company's own realized 2022-2023 downturn pattern ↑
Measured by
Evidence for
- Blackstone's total GAAP revenue fell 62.3% in 2022 and a further 5.8% in 2023 after the 2021 performance-revenue peak, showing how cyclical and rate-sensitive the model is.[Blackstone historical annual revenue (provided actuals / 10-K)]· primary
- Real estate fee-earning AUM was essentially flat, $282.0B (FY2023) vs $281.0B (FY2024), signalling stalled growth in Blackstone's historically largest segment amid higher rates.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K, fee-earning AUM by segment]· primary
Evidence against
- Blackstone reported record AUM of $1.35 trillion in Q2 2026, up 11% YoY, with nearly $70B of quarterly inflows, arguing against a fundraising slowdown materializing yet.[Blackstone Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings]· primary
Operating margin40.0%medium
How derived: GAAP operating margin (total revenue less total expenses) fell from 48.4% in FY2024 to 46.7% in FY2025 to 46.4% in H1 2026; bear assumes this compression continues as fixed compensation and technology/AI infrastructure spend keep outpacing a slowing top line, settling near 40%.
Why this confidence: Only three comparable data points (FY2024, FY2025, H1 2026) observed for the margin trend ↓, Margin compression direction is consistent across all three recent periods ↑, GAAP margin conflates volatile performance-revenue compensation with core fee margins ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- GAAP operating margin fell from 48.4% in FY2024 to 46.7% in FY2025, computed as total revenues less total expenses divided by total revenues from the 10-K.[Blackstone FY2025 10-K, statement of operations]· estimate
- Management highlighted 'Strategic AI Investments' as a growth driver, implying elevated near-term technology spend that could pressure margins before it pays off.[Blackstone Inc (BX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary
Evidence against
- Fee Related Earnings rose to roughly $1.3 billion for H1 2026, up strongly year over year and roughly in line with fee revenue growth, suggesting core fee-business margins are holding rather than collapsing.[Blackstone Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate20.0%low
How derived: FY2025 effective tax rate was 15.7% and FY2024 was 15.8% (10-K), held down chiefly by income allocated to noncontrolling interests in Blackstone Holdings; bear assumes continued unit exchanges/conversions or adverse tax-policy changes erode this structural benefit, pushing the effective rate up to about 20% over the forecast.
Why this confidence: Two-year effective-rate history is very stable, undercutting the case for a rise ↓, The structural mechanism for a future increase (NCI unit conversions) is real and explicitly disclosed ↑
Measured by
- Effective Income Tax Rate (annual)15.7%reported
Evidence for
- The FY2025 10-K's tax-rate reconciliation shows the 21% statutory federal rate reduced by 8.8 points for noncontrolling-interest pass-through but increased by 2.9 points for state/local tax, a structure sensitive to ownership-mix shifts that could move against the company.[Blackstone FY2025 10-K, income tax note]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective tax rate has been stable at 15.7%-15.8% for two consecutive fiscal years (FY2024, FY2025), showing no sign yet of upward drift.[Blackstone FY2024 and FY2025 10-K filings]· primary
Reinvestment rate8.0%medium
How derived: Blackstone targets paying ~85% of Distributable Earnings as dividends and repurchased only $48.4 million of stock in H1 2026 against a $2.0 billion authorization; bear assumes a slowdown prompts even more conservative capital deployment, with growth reinvestment falling to about 8% of NOPAT.
Why this confidence: Directly grounded in the disclosed 85% payout policy and actual H1 2026 buyback pace ↑, No disclosed line item literally called 'reinvestment rate'; figure is inferred from payout/buyback behavior ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Blackstone repurchased just $48.4 million of stock in H1 2026 versus a $2.0 billion authorization, well under the pace needed to use the full program, consistent with a low, cautious reinvestment posture.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management describes ongoing 'Strategic AI Investments' and continued fundraising for new perpetual vehicles, which require some minimum ongoing reinvestment even in a downturn.[Blackstone Inc (BX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Bear sets terminal growth at 2.0%, near the low end of long-run U.S. nominal GDP/inflation expectations, reflecting a mature, possibly saturated alternative-asset industry with no further structural share gains, consistent with real estate fee-earning AUM being roughly flat between FY2023 ($282.0B) and FY2024 ($281.0B).
Why this confidence: Terminal growth is a single very-long-run judgment, inherently low-confidence ↓, Grounded in an actually-observed flat segment (real estate) ↑
Measured by
- Total Assets Under Management (period-end)$1.4Treported
Evidence for
- Real estate fee-earning AUM barely moved between FY2023 ($282.0B) and FY2024 ($281.0B), an example of a large, mature segment showing no organic terminal growth.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.78% as of early September 2026, implying room for a higher nominal terminal growth rate before terminal free cash flow growth would approach the risk-free rate.[Treasury Rates Today: September 4, 2026]· primary
Base
medium confidence$96.92
IV / share
-29.6% vs $137.68
- Explicit cash flows
- $32.93
- Terminal value
- $63.99
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $96.92
66.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth14.0% → 12.0% → 11.0% → 10.0% → 9.0%medium
How derived: H1 2026 revenue of $8.66B is running well ahead of H1 2025 (Q1 +10.0%, Q2 +35.9% YoY) and management reaffirmed guidance for double-digit base management fee growth in 2027 on record $1.35T AUM (+11% YoY); base assumes growth normalizes from this elevated pace toward the underlying ~9-14% pace implied by fee-earning AUM growth ($718.4B in 2023 to $868.0B in 2024, +21%, to $961.6B by Q2 2026) as the outsized performance-revenue tailwind moderates.
Why this confidence: Grounded in explicit management guidance for double-digit fee growth in 2027 ↑, Total revenue still includes volatile mark-to-market performance revenue, unlike the fee-growth guidance itself ↓, Recent quarter-over-quarter growth has swung from -15.7% to +41.4% to +35.9% ↓
Measured by
Price implies: 20.7% vs our 11.2% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management reaffirmed expectations for double-digit base management fee growth in 2027, citing PE drawdowns, perpetual strategy growth (BXPE, infrastructure) and BXMA AUM reaching a record $109 billion.[Earnings call transcript: Blackstone tops Q2 2026 estimates]· secondary
- Fee-earning AUM grew from $718.4B (FY2023) to $868.0B (FY2024), about +21%, and reached $961.6B by Q2 2026, a decelerating but still-healthy growth rate.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K / Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Quarterly revenue growth has been highly uneven even in the recent past: Q3 2025 fell 15.7% year over year before Q4 2025 jumped 41.4% and Q2 2026 jumped 35.9%, so a smooth low-double-digit path likely understates real variance.[Blackstone recent quarterly revenue (provided actuals / 10-Q filings)]· primary
Operating margin46.0%medium
How derived: GAAP operating margin was 46.7% in FY2025 and 46.4% in H1 2026 (total revenue less total expenses); base case holds margin roughly flat near this trailing ~46% level, balancing scale benefits from growing fee-earning AUM against elevated compensation tied to strong performance revenue.
Why this confidence: Anchored directly to trailing full-year and six-month GAAP margins ↑, Short two-year comparison window available ↓
Measured by
Price implies: 65.3% vs our 46.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- H1 2026 GAAP margin of 46.4% is within half a point of FY2025's 46.7%, indicating stabilization rather than continued decline.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q]· estimate
Evidence against
- FY2024 margin was materially higher at 48.4%, so holding flat near 46% assumes the FY2025 step-down is permanent rather than a one-year anomaly.[Blackstone FY2025 10-K]· estimate
Tax rate18.0%medium
How derived: Base case holds the tax rate near the FY2024-25 reported average of 15.7%-15.8%, rounded up modestly to 18% to reflect gradual normalization as Blackstone continues to exchange Holdings partnership units for common stock over time, per the 10-K's tax-rate reconciliation disclosure.
Why this confidence: Anchored to two consecutive years of reported effective tax rate ↑, Assumed drift to 18% is a forward judgment, not observed in the two-year history ↓
Measured by
- Effective Income Tax Rate (annual)15.7%reported
Evidence for
- FY2025 and FY2024 effective tax rates were 15.7% and 15.8% respectively, essentially flat, supporting a rate anchored in the mid-to-high teens.[Blackstone FY2024 and FY2025 10-K filings]· primary
Evidence against
- The two-year trend does not actually show upward movement, so assuming a rise to 18% rather than holding flat near 16% is a forward judgment not yet visible in the reported data.[Blackstone FY2024 and FY2025 10-K filings]· estimate
Reinvestment rate12.0%medium
How derived: With an 85%-of-Distributable-Earnings dividend policy and only $48.4M of buybacks against a $2.0B authorization in H1 2026, roughly 12%-15% of earnings appear to be retained or redeployed into the business (new fund seeding, GP stakes, technology); base case sets reinvestment at 12% of NOPAT.
Why this confidence: Directly anchored to a disclosed payout-ratio policy in the 10-Q ↑, Mapping the payout ratio to a DCF 'reinvestment rate' requires an approximation ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Blackstone's dividend policy explicitly targets paying approximately 85% of Distributable Earnings, implying roughly 15% is retained for reinvestment and balance-sheet needs.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Distributable Earnings is not the same base as NOPAT used in a DCF, so the ~15%-retained figure implied by the dividend policy is only an approximate proxy for a DCF reinvestment rate.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q]· estimate
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: Base case sets terminal growth at 2.5%, in line with long-run U.S. nominal GDP growth expectations and below the current 10-year Treasury yield of 4.78%, consistent with alternative assets continuing to take a slow, steady share of a growing global capital-markets pie beyond the explicit forecast window.
Why this confidence: Standard, widely-used macro anchor (long-run nominal GDP) ↑, Not derived from any Blackstone-specific disclosure ↓
Measured by
- Total Assets Under Management (period-end)$1.4Treported
Evidence for
- Total AUM compounded from $1.04T (FY2023) to $1.35T (Q2 2026), a multi-year track record of double-digit growth that should decelerate to, but likely not below, GDP-like rates over the very long run.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K / Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- There is no company-specific disclosure of a terminal or long-run growth assumption; 2.5% is an external macro proxy, not a Blackstone-specific data point.[U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis long-run nominal GDP context]· estimate
Bull
low confidence$131.14
IV / share
-4.8% vs $137.68
- Explicit cash flows
- $40.90
- Terminal value
- $90.24
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $131.14
68.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth22.0% → 18.0% → 16.0% → 14.0% → 12.0%low
How derived: Q2 2026 revenue growth of 35.9% YoY and record AUM of $1.35T (+11% YoY) with accelerating flows ($70B in the quarter) suggest the AI/data-center and private-credit/insurance buildout (Credit & Insurance AUM +15% to $469.3B, Multi-Asset +21% to $108.6B) could sustain a re-acceleration similar to the 2024 snap-back (+64.9%) rather than a normalization, with growth staying in the high-teens before decelerating toward the low-double-digits by Y5.
Why this confidence: Two consecutive quarters of accelerating YoY growth (Q1 2026 +10.0%, Q2 2026 +35.9%) support near-term momentum ↑, Assumes momentum sustains beyond guided 2027 fee growth into inherently less-predictable performance-revenue upside ↓, Real estate segment AUM growth has stalled, a headwind not reflected in the acceleration story ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Private equity AUM grew 17% YoY to $454.2B and multi-asset investing AUM grew 21% YoY to $108.6B in Q2 2026, indicating broad-based acceleration across segments.[Blackstone Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results]· primary
- Total GAAP revenue rebounded 64.9% in FY2024 after the FY2022-23 downturn, demonstrating the model's capacity for rapid snap-back growth when performance revenue reprices upward.[Blackstone historical annual revenue (provided actuals / 10-K)]· primary
Evidence against
- Real estate, historically Blackstone's largest segment, grew fee-earning AUM only slightly, from $282.0B (FY2023) to $281.0B (FY2024), essentially flat, suggesting one major segment may not participate in a broad re-acceleration.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K, fee-earning AUM by segment]· primary
Operating margin50.0%low
How derived: Bull assumes operating leverage reasserts as fee-earning AUM (up from $718.4B in 2023 to $961.6B by Q2 2026, +34% cumulative) scales against a largely fixed cost base, lifting GAAP operating margin back toward and above the FY2024 high of 48.4% to about 50% by the forecast horizon.
Why this confidence: Scale argument is standard in asset-management economics ↑, Actual recent margin trend has moved in the opposite direction ↓, Relies on AI-driven fee growth guidance materializing at scale ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Fee-earning AUM grew 34% cumulatively from FY2023 ($718.4B) to Q2 2026 ($961.6B) while headcount and infrastructure are largely fixed, the classic asset-management scale argument for margin expansion.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K / Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Margins have actually compressed, not expanded, over the same period (48.4% in FY2024 to 46.4% in H1 2026), the opposite of the scale-expansion thesis.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q]· estimate
Tax rate16.0%low
How derived: Bull assumes the low effective tax rate is durable or improves slightly (to 16%) because a larger share of incremental income in a strong-markets scenario comes from performance revenue/carried interest allocated to noncontrolling Holdings unitholders, consistent with the FY2025 10-K's disclosed 8.8-point NCI benefit to the rate.
Why this confidence: Grounded in the exact noncontrolling-interest tax benefit disclosed in the 10-K rate reconciliation ↑, Direction of the noncontrolling-interest share over time is uncertain and arguably works against this assumption ↓
Measured by
- Effective Income Tax Rate (annual)15.7%reported
Evidence for
- The FY2025 10-K explicitly attributes 8.8 percentage points of tax-rate reduction to income passed through to noncontrolling interest holders, a benefit that scales with total partnership income.[Blackstone FY2025 10-K, income tax note]· primary
Evidence against
- Blackstone has been repurchasing shares and unit conversions into public shares have generally continued over time, which would shrink the noncontrolling-interest base and reduce this tax benefit rather than enlarge it.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q, share repurchase disclosure]· secondary
Reinvestment rate16.0%low
How derived: Bull assumes Blackstone leans further into growth investment (seeding new perpetual/retail vehicles, GP stakes, AI-linked data-infrastructure credit deals cited on the Q2 2026 call) even while maintaining its ~85% payout policy, funded by roughly $200 billion-plus of dry powder and continued fundraising, lifting reinvestment to about 16% of NOPAT to capture the double-digit fee growth management is guiding to for 2027.
Why this confidence: Tied to explicit management commentary on AI-related strategic investment ↑, The 85% payout commitment is a real structural constraint against a much higher reinvestment rate ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Management cited 'Strategic AI Investments' as a growth driver on the Q2 2026 call and guided to double-digit base management fee growth in 2027, implying incremental reinvestment ahead of that growth.[Blackstone Inc (BX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary
Evidence against
- The 85%-of-Distributable-Earnings dividend commitment structurally caps how much can be retained and reinvested regardless of how attractive opportunities look.[Blackstone Q2 2026 10-Q, dividend policy]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: Bull sets terminal growth at 3.0%, still below the 4.78% risk-free rate but at the higher end of plausible long-run nominal growth, reflecting a continued structural shift of institutional and retail portfolios into alternatives (fee-earning AUM +34% cumulative from FY2023 to Q2 2026) persisting well beyond the explicit five-year window.
Why this confidence: Grounded in a real, multi-year fee-earning AUM growth trend ↑, Extrapolating any above-GDP growth rate to perpetuity is inherently aggressive ↓
Measured by
- Total Assets Under Management (period-end)$1.4Treported
Evidence for
- Fee-earning AUM grew from $718.4B (FY2023) to $961.6B (Q2 2026), a 34% cumulative increase in about two and a half years, evidence of a still-early secular allocation shift toward alternatives.[Blackstone FY2024 10-K / Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- A 3% terminal growth rate assumes this pace of secular share-gain continues indefinitely, which conflicts with the mathematical reality that no company can outgrow the overall economy forever.[Treasury Rates Today: September 4, 2026]· estimate
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating51 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 44.1% | 1.57 | 16.3% | 768.28M | 1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | -10.8% | 1.4 | 15.3% | 772.43M | 1.6% |
| Q2 2025 | 32.7% | 1.08 | — | 782.4M | — |
| Q3 2025 | -15.7% | 2.01 | 28.5% | 782.68M | 1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | 10.0% | 1.22 | -12.9% | 786.3M | 1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | 35.9% | 2.39 | 120.2% | 799.9M | 2.2% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was reported at approximately 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, used as the risk-free rate.
Zacks reports a 5-year regression beta of 1.75 for BX, ranking in the 96th percentile for the financial sector, reflecting the stock's high sensitivity to capital-markets and real-estate cycles; a shorter-window CNBC estimate of 1.56 is somewhat lower, but the standard 5-year measure is used here.
Aswath Damodaran's July 2026 data update puts the implied U.S. equity risk premium at 4.45%, the most recent forward-looking estimate available in his dataset.
Blackstone Inc. (BX) traded at $136.82 per share as of early September 2026, per Investing.com's equities page.
Blackstone priced $600M of 4.300% senior notes due 2030 and $600M of 4.950% senior notes due 2036 in November 2025; using the longer-dated 2036 tranche coupon of ~4.95% as a base and adjusting slightly for the modest rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since issuance (to 4.78% today), a pre-tax cost of debt of about 5.2% is used.
Generated 9/6/2026, 11:09:21 AM · pipeline v1.2.0