C
CITIGROUP INCNYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives C's base case?
base-case thesisCiti's growth broadened across all five businesses, while expenses rose much more slowly than revenue in early 2026. The base case assumes the exceptional pace cools but Services, Wealth and institutional client activity continue expanding. Better efficiency supports higher earnings, while continued balance-sheet growth still requires meaningful retained capital.
What shapes the assumptions
First-half 2026 revenue growth of 0.14 across all five businesses
total revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Efficiency ratio improved from 0.647 in 2025 to 0.577 in first-half 2026
expenses divided by revenue
Raises operating margin
Services custody and administration assets reached $35 trillion in 2Q26
fee-generating client assets
Raises revenue growth
Average loans grew 0.10 in first-half 2026
average loan balances
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 10.8% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 2.5% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 38.4% operating margin, against the 32.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 47.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Full-year efficiency ratio
Operating expenses divided by revenue measures how much of each revenue dollar is consumed before credit costs.
64.7%
reported2. Full-year return on tangible common equity
This measures profit generated from tangible common equity and indicates whether Citi is improving its capital productivity.
7.7%
reported3. Services AUC/AUA, period-end
Assets under custody and administration measure the client assets supporting recurring Securities Services fees.
$35T
reported4. USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate
Net credit losses as a share of average USPB loans show how consumer credit quality affects provisions and earnings.
3.4%
reported5. Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end
The standardized CET1 ratio measures Citi's highest-quality regulatory capital relative to risk-weighted assets and constrains growth and distributions.
12.8%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$85.2B
Diluted shares
1,862,600,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$65.52
IV / share
-52.4% vs $137.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $19.43
- Terminal value
- $46.09
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $65.52
70.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth8.0% → 2.0% → 2.0% → 2.0% → 2.0%medium
How derived: The 2025 growth rate of 0.0558 and first-half 2026 growth of 0.14 support a strong first forecast year, but this case assumes Markets and Banking normalize sharply and later growth falls to 0.02.
Why this confidence: Management guidance anchors the first forecast year ↑, Trading and investment-banking revenue is cyclical ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Evidence for
- Management's 2026 guidance calls for non-Markets net interest income growth of approximately 0.05 to 0.06, while the cyclical Markets component is outside that guidance.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.14, with growth of 0.17 in Services, 0.18 in Markets, 0.24 in Banking and 0.12 in Wealth.[Citi 2Q26 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin27.0%medium
How derived: Citi's pretax-income margin rose from about 0.233 in 2025 to about 0.315 in first-half 2026, but this case assumes credit costs and transformation spending pull the sustainable margin back to 0.27.
Why this confidence: Reported expense and credit-loss data permit a direct margin calculation ↑, Future credit losses and market revenue are difficult to normalize ↓
Measured by
- Full-year efficiency ratio64.7%reported
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
Evidence for
- Citi's 2025 efficiency ratio was 0.647 and provisions for credit losses were $10.265 billion, leaving pretax income of $19.828 billion on $85.225 billion of revenue.[Citi 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 revenue increased 0.14 while expenses increased only 0.06, producing a 0.577 efficiency ratio and substantially higher pretax profitability.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Tax rate27.0%medium
How derived: The assumption retains Citi's 2025 effective tax rate of 0.27 because this case allows limited relief from unusual-item tax effects and international minimum-tax rules.
Why this confidence: Multiple years of reported effective tax rates are available ↑, Cross-border taxes and divestiture effects remain variable ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Citi reported a 2025 effective tax rate of 0.27, up from 0.25 in 2024 because the Russia and Banamex items had limited tax benefits.[Citi 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective tax rate in the second quarter of 2026 was approximately 0.25 after the unusual 2025 items.[Citi 2Q26 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: This case assumes half of after-tax operating profit must remain in the business because weaker capital productivity and credit performance would constrain distributions despite current excess capital.
Why this confidence: Regulatory capital ratios provide an observable constraint ↑, A conventional reinvestment rate is an imperfect measure for a bank ↓
Measured by
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Evidence for
- Citi's standardized CET1 ratio declined from 0.135 in the second quarter of 2025 to 0.128 in the second quarter of 2026 as risk-weighted assets expanded.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Citi repurchased $4.0 billion of common shares in the second quarter of 2026 and expected 2026 repurchases to exceed 2025.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The long-run rate is set below Citi's recent growth and management's near-term mid-single-digit objective because a mature global bank should eventually grow near underlying real economic activity.
Why this confidence: Mature-bank economics bound long-run growth ↑, Terminal assumptions extend far beyond disclosed guidance ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
Evidence for
- Management's near-term target is only mid-single-digit revenue growth excluding Legacy Franchises and reconciling items, making eventual deceleration plausible.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Services assets under custody and administration increased 0.24 in 2025 and another 0.22 year over year by the second quarter of 2026.[Citi 2025 annual report and 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Base
low confidence$114.79
IV / share
-16.6% vs $137.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $31.10
- Terminal value
- $83.69
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $114.79
72.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth12.0% → 5.5% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0%medium
How derived: The path starts below first-half 2026 growth of 0.14, then converges toward management's near-term mid-single-digit objective as unusually strong Markets and Banking comparisons normalize.
Why this confidence: Current-year results and management's multi-year target both support the path ↑, The revenue mix includes volatile trading and underwriting activity ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Price implies: 10.8% vs our 6.2% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.14, and management targets mid-single-digit revenue growth from 2025 through 2028 excluding Legacy Franchises and reconciling items.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's explicit 2026 growth guidance covers non-Markets net interest income at approximately 0.05 to 0.06, while Markets and fee revenue remain sensitive to market conditions.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Operating margin32.0%medium
How derived: First-half 2026 pretax income was about 0.315 of revenue, and a 0.32 target assumes productivity offsets normalizing revenue while credit costs remain near recent levels.
Why this confidence: The target is close to current reported pretax profitability ↑, Credit provisions can change materially across an economic cycle ↓
Measured by
- Full-year efficiency ratio64.7%reported
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
Price implies: 38.4% vs our 32.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 pretax income was $15.546 billion on $49.399 billion of revenue, while the efficiency ratio improved to 0.577.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's full-year 2026 efficiency-ratio guidance remains approximately 0.60, and provisions still totaled $5.327 billion in the first half.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Tax rate25.0%medium
How derived: The assumption uses the second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate of 0.25, which also matches 2024 and excludes the limited tax benefits attached to 2025's unusual losses.
Why this confidence: The rate recurs in both a recent quarter and a prior full year ↑, Geographic earnings mix can shift the effective rate ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Citi reported effective tax rates of 0.25 in 2024 and approximately 0.25 in the second quarter of 2026.[Citi 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 effective tax rate was 0.27, demonstrating sensitivity to losses with limited tax benefits and Citi's international mix.[Citi 2025 annual report]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: A 0.40 rate balances loan and risk-weighted-asset growth against Citi's stated capital-productivity gains and its ability to fund substantial repurchases while remaining above its CET1 requirement.
Why this confidence: Loan growth and CET1 disclosures indicate required capital investment ↑, Bank reinvestment cannot be cleanly inferred from conventional capital expenditure ↓
Measured by
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Evidence for
- Average loans grew 0.10 and standardized risk-weighted assets reached $1.230 trillion by the second quarter of 2026, requiring additional supporting capital.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Citi returned $17.6 billion to common shareholders in 2025 and continued repurchasing shares under a $30 billion authorization in 2026.[Citi 2025 annual report and 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The rate is below the explicit-period growth path and management's near-term target, reflecting mature-bank growth that roughly follows long-run nominal economic expansion without exceeding the discount-rate environment.
Why this confidence: The assumption is conservatively below the explicit forecast ↑, Small changes have a large effect over an indefinite horizon ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
Evidence for
- Citi targets mid-single-digit near-term revenue growth but remains a mature, regulated institution whose capital must expand with its balance sheet.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Services revenue grew 0.08 in 2025 and 0.17 in first-half 2026, supported by substantially faster growth in custody assets and cross-border activity.[Citi 2025 annual report and 2Q26 results]· primary
Bull
low confidence$156.31
IV / share
+13.5% vs $137.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $39.06
- Terminal value
- $117.25
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $156.31
75.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth14.0% → 7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0% → 5.5%low
How derived: The path carries first-half 2026 growth of 0.14 through the first year and assumes Services, Wealth and market-share gains keep later growth above management's mid-single-digit near-term objective.
Why this confidence: The initial rate matches current reported performance ↑, Later rates exceed management's stated near-term objective ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 revenue grew 0.14, including 0.17 growth in Services, 0.18 in Markets, 0.24 in Banking and 0.12 in Wealth.[Citi 2Q26 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's own 2025-to-2028 core-business revenue objective is mid-single-digit growth, below most of this scenario's forecast path.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Operating margin35.0%low
How derived: The target assumes Citi reaches its below-0.55 medium-term efficiency objective while strong client activity and improved card credit keep provisions near or below their recent share of revenue.
Why this confidence: The target is consistent with management's medium-term efficiency and return framework ↑, It requires several years of successful execution and benign credit conditions ↓
Measured by
- Full-year efficiency ratio64.7%reported
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
Evidence for
- Management targets a medium-term efficiency ratio below 0.55 and a return on tangible common equity of approximately 0.14 to 0.15.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 efficiency ratio was still 0.647, and first-half 2026 provisions for credit losses remained $5.327 billion.[Citi 2025 annual report and 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Tax rate24.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes a favorable earnings mix and no repetition of the poorly tax-shielded 2025 divestiture charges, placing it modestly below the normalized 0.25 recent rate.
Why this confidence: Recent quarters demonstrate the assumed rate is possible ↑, The assumption is below the latest full-year normalized result ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The second-quarter 2025 effective tax rate was approximately 0.23 and the comparable 2026 rate was approximately 0.25, showing that a 0.24 outcome is achievable.[Citi 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Citi's full-year effective tax rate was 0.27 in 2025 and 0.25 in 2024.[Citi 2025 annual report]· primary
Reinvestment rate35.0%low
How derived: The case assumes higher returns and capital-productivity gains allow faster growth with only 0.35 of after-tax operating profit retained, leaving substantial capacity for shareholder distributions.
Why this confidence: Management explicitly targets better capital productivity ↑, High forecast growth normally requires more regulatory capital ↓
Measured by
- Full-year return on tangible common equity7.7%reported
- USPB full-year net-credit-loss rate3.4%reported
- Standardized CET1 ratio, period-end12.8%reported
Evidence for
- Management identifies capital-productivity gains as a key return driver and targets medium-term return on tangible common equity of approximately 0.14 to 0.15.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Average loans grew 0.10 and standardized risk-weighted assets increased to $1.230 trillion by the second quarter of 2026, so sustained above-target growth would still consume capital.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The upper-end terminal rate assumes Citi's global payments, custody and wealth platforms compound with nominal economic activity while remaining below the explicit forecast growth rates.
Why this confidence: Long-running growth in transaction and custody volumes supports structural expansion ↑, A high terminal rate is especially sensitive to regulation and economic maturity ↓
Measured by
- Services AUC/AUA, period-end$35Treported
Evidence for
- Services assets under custody and administration rose from $23.5 trillion in 2023 to $31.4 trillion in 2025 and reached $35 trillion in the second quarter of 2026.[Citi annual report and 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Citi is a systemically important regulated bank, and management's nearer-term core revenue objective is only mid-single-digit growth.[Citi 2Q26 earnings presentation]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating47 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 73% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | -2.0% | -6.4 | 60.9% | 1.94B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2024 | 3.1% | -9.56 | 66.1% | 1.95B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2024 | 0.3% | -9.4 | -230.1% | 1.94B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | 2.8% | -31.37 | -390.2% | 1.92B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2% | -20.25 | -111.8% | 1.89B | -2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | -0.28 | 97.0% | 1.86B | -4.0% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year nominal par yield for 2026-09-04, the latest business day before the valuation date.
The input is the August 2026 trailing-12-month implied U.S. equity risk premium from Aswath Damodaran's monthly series.
The value is Citigroup's regular-session closing share price on 2026-09-04.
Generated 9/5/2026, 10:01:59 PM · pipeline v1.2.0