CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 8, 2026
What drives CRWD's base case?
base-case thesisCrowdStrike's recurring sales and contracted work provide good visibility for the next few years. More customers are using several Falcon products, which should support continued expansion even as growth naturally slows from its current pace. High subscription profitability and slower expense growth eventually produce strong reported earnings, although share-based pay remains meaningful.
What shapes the assumptions
Annual recurring revenue rose by about one quarter
Five-year sales growth path
Raises revenue growth
Customers adopting six or more modules reached just over half
Revenue per customer and retention
Raises revenue growth
Subscription gross profit was close to four-fifths of subscription sales
Fifth-year profit from operations
Raises operating margin
Share-based pay exceeded one-fifth of quarterly revenue
Fifth-year reported profit
Lowers operating margin
Record quarterly free cash generation
Cash retained for growth investment
Lowers reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 51.4% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 38.5% a year — so the price assumes more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How much of this is timing?
- The price has risen 4.6% since this valuation was struck on 2026-08-08, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 70.8% operating margin, against the 22.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 51.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 3.8% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$5.1B
Diluted shares
257,881,000
Net cash
$3.8B
Bear
low confidence$43.13
IV / share
-80.1% vs $216.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.49
- Terminal value
- $20.88
- Net cash
- $14.76
- Intrinsic value / share
- $43.13
48.4% of the value rests on the terminal value.
bear revenue growth (avg 13%) runs well above the trailing -7% trend
bear operating margin (15%) sits well above the best recent margin (1%)
Revenue growth18.0% → 15.0% → 12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 growth of approximately 0.26 and management's FY2027 revenue midpoint implying approximately 0.23 growth, this path assumes competition, customer caution, and incident-related effects cause a faster decline.
Why this confidence: Current-year company guidance and reported ARR ↑, Five-year competitive and customer-retention uncertainty ↓
Evidence for
- Revenue grew approximately 0.26 in Q1 FY2027, while ARR grew approximately 0.24, providing a strong but decelerating starting point.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- CrowdStrike says the July 2024 incident caused some customers to defer purchases, decline purchases, terminate contracts, or not renew.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised FY2027 guidance, reported record Q1 net new ARR, and disclosed increasing adoption of six, seven, and eight or more modules.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Operating margin15.0%low
How derived: Starting from the recent GAAP loss margin of approximately 0.02 and a 0.78 subscription gross margin, this case allows scale benefits but assumes stock compensation, research spending, competition, and incident costs limit the fifth-year margin.
Why this confidence: Observed improvement in reported profitability ↑, Large equity-compensation expense and distant margin target ↓
Evidence for
- The Q1 GAAP operating loss narrowed to $30.6 million from $118.7 million, and the subscription gross margin increased to 0.78.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 stock-based compensation was $297.7 million and unrecognized compensation associated with unvested restricted stock units was $2.4 billion.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate25.0%medium
How derived: Starting from management's long-term adjusted tax assumption of 0.21, this case adds 0.04 for state, foreign, withholding, and uncertain-tax-position exposure once sustained taxable income is reached.
Why this confidence: Company tax guidance and jurisdiction disclosures ↑, Timing of tax-asset use and future geographic mix ↓
Evidence for
- The filing identifies foreign-jurisdiction taxes, withholding taxes, and jurisdictions where losses and credits provide no benefit as factors affecting the effective tax rate.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management uses a long-term non-GAAP tax rate of 0.21 in its FY2027 guidance.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Starting from Q1 research and development spending of $408.3 million and management's expectation that technology and sales investment will continue, this case retains 0.40 of after-tax operating profit to support product reliability and increasingly difficult growth.
Why this confidence: Current research spending and stated investment plans ↑, Reinvestment must be estimated from accounting expenses and working capital ↓
Evidence for
- Research and development expense increased approximately 0.23 to $408.3 million, and the company expects technology-platform investment to keep increasing in dollars.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 free cash flow reached $468.5 million on $1.39 billion of revenue, demonstrating that the subscription model can fund growth while producing substantial cash.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Starting from the Federal Reserve's longer-run medians of 0.02 real economic growth and 0.02 inflation, this case uses only 0.025 because competition and company maturity should make growth slower than nominal economic output.
Why this confidence: Authoritative long-run macroeconomic reference ↑, Terminal assumptions extend indefinitely ↓
Evidence for
- Federal Reserve participants projected longer-run real growth of 0.02 and inflation of 0.02, giving a nominal economic-growth reference near 0.04 before interaction effects.[June 2026 FOMC projections]· primary
Evidence against
- CrowdStrike describes its market as intensely competitive, rapidly changing, and subject to new entrants, which could prevent durable growth above mature-company levels.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Base
low confidence$77.60
IV / share
-64.2% vs $216.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.73
- Terminal value
- $48.11
- Net cash
- $14.76
- Intrinsic value / share
- $77.60
62.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
base revenue growth (avg 18%) runs well above the trailing -7% trend
base operating margin (22%) sits well above the best recent margin (1%)
Revenue growth23.0% → 21.0% → 18.0% → 15.0% → 12.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 growth of approximately 0.26, ARR growth of 0.24, and management's FY2027 revenue midpoint implying approximately 0.23 growth, this path assumes platform expansion offsets normal deceleration as the revenue base grows.
Why this confidence: Current-year guidance, ARR, and contracted obligations ↑, Uncertain deceleration after the guided year ↓
Evidence for
- Management's FY2027 revenue guidance of $5.915 billion to $5.959 billion implies growth of approximately 0.23 from FY2026 revenue.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- Remaining performance obligations were $8.8 billion, with approximately 0.52 expected to be recognized during the following twelve months.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The company reports intense competition and acknowledges that incident-related reputational harm has affected sales and renewals.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin22.0%medium
How derived: Starting from a Q1 GAAP loss margin near 0.02, a 0.78 subscription gross margin, and management's guided adjusted margin near 0.25, this case assumes expense leverage lifts the fifth-year GAAP margin to 0.22 while preserving a material stock-compensation burden.
Why this confidence: High gross margin and guided adjusted profitability ↑, Uncertain conversion from adjusted to durable GAAP profit ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 non-GAAP income from operations was $325.7 million, and FY2027 adjusted operating-income guidance is $1.452 billion to $1.480 billion.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- Management expects research and development expense to decline as a share of revenue over time.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 GAAP operations still produced a $30.6 million loss, while stock-based compensation increased to $297.7 million.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate23.0%medium
How derived: Starting from management's long-term adjusted tax rate of 0.21, this case adds 0.02 for state, foreign, and withholding taxes once loss carryforwards and acquisition-related benefits normalize.
Why this confidence: Explicit long-term company tax assumption ↑, Future geographic mix and tax-credit realization ↓
Evidence for
- Management applies a 0.21 long-term tax rate to its adjusted FY2027 outlook.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- CrowdStrike's reported tax rate is currently distorted by deferred-tax-asset realizations, excess tax benefits, foreign taxes, withholding taxes, and uncertain tax positions.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
How derived: Starting from substantial research, sales, cloud-hosting, and contract-acquisition investment, this case retains 0.32 of after-tax operating profit while assuming subscription scale and upfront billing improve the efficiency of each additional dollar invested.
Why this confidence: Detailed company investment and cash-flow disclosures ↑, Accounting treatment of software development and sales commissions ↓
Evidence for
- The company says its liquidity needs include acquisitions, working capital, research and development, capital expenditure, and licenses and services integral to operations.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 operating cash flow was $590.9 million and free cash flow was $468.5 million, indicating favorable subscription billing and limited physical-capital intensity.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: Starting from longer-run real growth and inflation medians of 0.02 each, this case uses 0.03 to reflect cybersecurity demand growing somewhat faster than mature economic output while remaining below the nominal macroeconomic reference.
Why this confidence: Federal Reserve long-run economic benchmarks ↑, Indefinite company-specific competitive uncertainty ↓
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run medians are 0.02 for real economic growth and 0.02 for inflation.[June 2026 FOMC projections]· primary
- CrowdStrike describes a threat environment characterized by rapidly changing technology and increasingly sophisticated attackers, supporting persistent security demand.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The same filing describes intense competition, frequent product introductions, and the risk of losing market share.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Bull
low confidence$122.83
IV / share
-43.4% vs $216.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $22.93
- Terminal value
- $85.13
- Net cash
- $14.76
- Intrinsic value / share
- $122.83
69.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
bull revenue growth (avg 21%) runs well above the trailing -7% trend
bull operating margin (28%) sits well above the best recent margin (1%)
Revenue growth26.0% → 24.0% → 21.0% → 18.0% → 15.0%low
How derived: Starting from Q1 revenue growth of approximately 0.26 and record net new ARR growth of approximately 0.32, this path assumes multi-module adoption, AI-security products, and partner distribution sustain growth near the recent pace before gradual deceleration.
Why this confidence: Record net new ARR and measurable module adoption ↑, Growth above current company guidance over a larger revenue base ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 net new ARR was $255.8 million and grew approximately 0.32, while management materially raised its FY2027 net-new-ARR outlook.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- Adoption reached 0.51 for six or more modules, 0.35 for seven or more, and 0.25 for eight or more modules.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's FY2027 revenue guidance implies growth closer to 0.23 than the bull case's first-year 0.26 assumption.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- The filing warns that competitors are aggressively approaching customers affected by the July 2024 incident.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin28.0%low
How derived: Starting from a 0.78 subscription gross margin and rapidly improving adjusted operating income, this case assumes platform consolidation, moderating sales costs, and declining equity compensation relative to revenue lift the fifth-year GAAP margin to 0.28.
Why this confidence: Strong gross economics and adjusted-profit growth ↑, Aggressive conversion to a high GAAP margin ↓
Evidence for
- Subscription gross margin reached 0.78 on a GAAP basis and 0.81 on an adjusted basis.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- Q1 adjusted operating income increased to $325.7 million from $201.1 million, substantially faster than revenue.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The company still reported a GAAP operating loss in Q1 and has $2.4 billion of unrecognized compensation related to unvested restricted stock units.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate21.0%medium
How derived: Starting directly from management's 0.21 long-term adjusted tax assumption, this case assumes research credits and international tax planning offset state and foreign additions.
Why this confidence: Explicit management long-term tax assumption ↑, Cross-border tax and credit uncertainty ↓
Evidence for
- Management explicitly uses a 0.21 long-term non-GAAP tax rate in its FY2027 guidance.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- The company reported $141.3 million of gross unrecognized tax benefits, primarily attributable to research and development credits.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Foreign-jurisdiction income taxes, withholding taxes, and jurisdictions where losses and credits provide no benefit can raise the realized rate.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate25.0%low
How derived: Starting from record Q1 free cash flow and the scalability of subscription delivery, this case retains 0.25 of after-tax operating profit on the assumption that platform reuse and partner distribution allow rapid growth without proportional investment.
Why this confidence: Strong current cash conversion and subscription billing ↑, High growth normally requires sustained product and sales investment ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 free cash flow was $468.5 million, or approximately 0.34 of revenue, despite revenue growth near 0.26.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
- Subscription contracts are typically non-cancelable, last one to three years, and are commonly billed near the beginning of the term.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Research and development expense rose approximately 0.23, and management expects continued investment in technology, sales, and product reliability.[Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%low
How derived: Starting from a nominal economic-growth reference near 0.04 based on the Federal Reserve's longer-run real-growth and inflation medians, this case uses 0.035 because cybersecurity can outgrow mature industries but cannot indefinitely exceed the broader economy by a wide margin.
Why this confidence: Long-lived cybersecurity demand and macroeconomic ceiling ↑, Aggressive perpetual-growth assumption ↓
Evidence for
- Federal Reserve participants' longer-run medians of 0.02 real growth and 0.02 inflation provide a nominal economic-growth reference near 0.04 before interaction effects.[June 2026 FOMC projections]· primary
- CrowdStrike reported expanding adoption across six, seven, and eight or more modules and launched additional AI-security products and partnerships.[Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Perpetual growth of 0.035 approaches the broader nominal economic-growth reference and therefore leaves limited room for future market-share loss or industry maturity.[June 2026 FOMC projections]· estimate
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating51 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 31.7% | 1.14 | 35.5% | 251.27M | 3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | 28.5% | 1.01 | -2.6% | 245.54M | 0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 19.8% | 1.2 | -9.9% | 248.43M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 21.3% | 1.21 | 5.8% | 249.91M | -0.5% |
| Q3 2026 | 22.2% | 1.25 | 24.0% | 251.33M | 2.4% |
| Q1 2027 | 25.6% | 1.91 | 59.3% | 257.88M | 3.8% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year Treasury par yield was 0.0465 on August 7, 2026, and is used as the long-duration U.S.-dollar risk-free rate.
The January 2026 bottom-up levered beta for 309 U.S. system and application software companies is 1.28, used instead of a noisier single-company regression.
The trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium was 0.0418 on June 1, 2026.
The latest independently verifiable close available in the cited series was $181.80 on July 28, 2026, after CrowdStrike's four-for-one split; the supplied pre-split share count must be multiplied by four before calculating value per share.
Generated 8/8/2026, 9:47:29 AM · pipeline v1.1.0