CVX
CHEVRON CORPNYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives CVX's base case?
base-case thesisChevron enters the forecast with record production, the Hess assets in its portfolio and several major projects already operating. The recent jump in sales is unlikely to repeat, but modest production growth and cost savings should support continued progress. Energy prices are assumed to normalize rather than remain at either crisis highs or depressed levels.
What shapes the assumptions
Record annual production
Worldwide production rose from 3.338 to 3.723 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025
Raises revenue growth
Realized structural savings
Annual run-rate structural savings reached 3 billion dollars in 2Q 2026
Raises operating margin
Recent tax normalization
The first-half 2026 effective tax rate was 30%
Informs tax rate
Disciplined production investment
2026 capital spending was budgeted at the low end of the 18 to 21 billion dollar framework
Informs reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 10.1% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 12.5% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 19.9% operating margin, against the 15.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 41.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 14.5% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Worldwide net production, annual daily average
This measures Chevron's average daily hydrocarbon output, the principal physical-volume driver of upstream sales.
3,723 thousand boe/day
reported2. International liquids realization, annual average
This is Chevron's realized international liquids price and directly captures the commodity-price effect on upstream revenue and profitability.
61.58 USD/barrel
reported3. Consolidated capital expenditure, annual
This measures cash invested in Chevron's asset base and indicates how much operating profit must be retained to sustain and grow production.
$17B
reported4. One-year proved reserve replacement
This measures net proved reserve additions relative to annual production and helps assess whether Chevron is replenishing the resource base supporting future output.
158.0%
reported5. Worldwide refinery utilization, annual
This measures refinery inputs as a share of available distillation capacity and indicates operational reliability and the ability to capture refining margins.
92.9%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$208.7B
Diluted shares
1,975,087,000
Net cash
$4.9B
Bear
low confidence$48.36
IV / share
-77.1% vs $211.32
- Explicit cash flows
- $11.51
- Terminal value
- $34.35
- Net cash
- $2.50
- Intrinsic value / share
- $48.36
71.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth-10.0% → -3.0% → 0.0% → 1.0% → 1.0%low
How derived: The recent revenue surge reflects unusually high realizations and Hess volume additions, so this case assumes commodity prices normalize sharply before low growth resumes.
Why this confidence: Commodity-price cyclicality ↓, Company production disclosures ↑, Five-year price uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Evidence for
- The IEA forecasts oil demand growth slowing toward a plateau by 2030 while production capacity grows faster than demand.[IEA Oil 2025 executive summary]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron reported first-half 2026 production of 3.97 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, 18 percent above the prior year.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin10.0%medium
How derived: Chevron's 2025 pretax income plus interest equaled roughly 0.113 of sales, so this case allows weaker realizations and cost inflation to pull normalized profitability slightly below that level.
Why this confidence: Audited annual financial statements ↑, Commodity-sensitive product mix ↓
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron said 2025 earnings fell primarily because of lower crude prices, lower affiliate earnings and adverse currency effects.[Chevron 2025 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron achieved 3 billion dollars of annual run-rate structural cost reductions by the second quarter of 2026.[Chevron 2Q 2026 operating update]· primary
Tax rate35.0%medium
How derived: The starting point is Chevron's 0.368 effective rate in 2025, reduced modestly because that year included unfavorable valuation-allowance and jurisdictional effects.
Why this confidence: Reported effective-rate history ↑, Jurisdictional earnings mix ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Chevron reported a 0.368 effective income-tax rate for 2025, including significant foreign tax and valuation-allowance effects.[Chevron 2025 Form 10-K income taxes]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective rate fell to 0.30 in the first half of 2026 and 0.27 in the second quarter as the geographic earnings mix changed.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q income taxes]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%medium
How derived: Chevron plans 18 billion to 19 billion dollars of 2026 organic capital spending, and this case assumes weak earnings make that necessary investment consume a comparatively large share of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Published capital budget ↑, Future commodity-dependent profit denominator ↓
Measured by
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron budgeted 18 billion to 19 billion dollars of organic capital expenditure for 2026, mostly for upstream assets.[Chevron 2026 capital budget]· primary
- The IEA estimates production from existing oil fields declines about 0.08 annually without investment.[IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 implications]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron placed its 2026 budget at the low end of its long-term capital range and described it as focused on the highest-return projects.[Chevron 2026 capital budget]· primary
Terminal growth0.0%low
How derived: Because the EIA projects declining long-run U.S. petroleum consumption in every principal case, this scenario assumes Chevron's nominal gains merely offset shrinking mature operations and portfolio sales.
Why this confidence: Government long-range energy scenarios ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Oil and gas demand divergence ↓
Measured by
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- The EIA projects U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption in 2050 to be 0.11 to 0.23 below 2025 across most modeled cases.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 narrative]· primary
Evidence against
- The same EIA outlook projects growing U.S. natural-gas consumption and exports through 2050 in most cases.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 narrative]· primary
Base
low confidence$159.80
IV / share
-24.4% vs $211.32
- Explicit cash flows
- $30.10
- Terminal value
- $127.20
- Net cash
- $2.50
- Intrinsic value / share
- $159.80
79.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth6.0% → 4.0% → 3.0% → 2.5% → 2.0%medium
How derived: Starting with Chevron's 0.02 to 0.03 annual production-growth plan through 2030, this path adds early Hess consolidation and moderate price growth before converging toward underlying volume growth.
Why this confidence: Management production guidance ↑, Hess assets already acquired ↑, Unforecastable commodity prices ↓
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Price implies: 10.1% vs our 3.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Chevron expects oil-and-gas production to grow 0.02 to 0.03 annually through 2030.[Chevron 2025 Investor Day]· primary
- Chevron's 2025 Form 10-K projected 2026 production growth of 0.07 to 0.10 over 2025, excluding asset-sale effects.[Chevron 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron's 2025 sales declined mainly because lower crude and refined-product prices outweighed higher volumes and natural-gas prices.[Chevron 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin15.0%medium
How derived: The assumption lies between the roughly 0.113 level derived from 2025 results and roughly 0.186 derived from first-half 2026 results, reflecting cost savings but normalized commodity prices.
Why this confidence: Current financial statements ↑, Verified cost reductions ↑, Refining and commodity cycles ↓
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Price implies: 19.9% vs our 15.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Chevron increased its planned Hess synergies to 1.5 billion dollars and its structural cost-reduction target to 3 billion to 4 billion dollars.[Chevron 2025 Investor Day]· primary
- First-half 2026 pretax income rose to 20.63 billion dollars as higher sales volumes, liquids realizations and refining margins outweighed higher depreciation.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron's 2025 upstream earnings fell to 12.822 billion dollars from 18.602 billion dollars as liquids realizations weakened.[Chevron 2025 annual report supplement]· primary
Tax rate31.0%medium
How derived: The assumption starts from the 0.30 effective rate reported for the first half of 2026 and adds a small allowance for Chevron's exposure to higher-tax foreign jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Recent half-year effective rate ↑, Geographic earnings variability ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Chevron's effective tax rate was 0.30 for the first six months of 2026.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q income taxes]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron's effective rate was 0.368 in 2025 and management says the rate varies with the absolute level and jurisdictional mix of earnings.[Chevron 2025 Form 10-K income taxes]· primary
Reinvestment rate42.0%medium
How derived: Chevron's 18 billion to 21 billion dollar annual capital framework supports planned production growth, while improving project efficiency and completed major developments justify retaining less than half of normalized after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Published multi-year capital range ↑, Simplified reinvestment proxy ↓, Recent project completions ↑
Measured by
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron's long-term annual capital guidance is 18 billion to 21 billion dollars, with planned production growth through 2030.[Chevron 2025 Investor Day]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron generated 16.546 billion dollars of free cash flow after 8.601 billion dollars of capital expenditure in the first half of 2026, indicating unusually strong near-term conversion.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth1.5%low
How derived: The IEA's stated-policies case has oil demand flattening around 2030 but natural-gas demand growing into the 2030s, supporting modest nominal growth below broad economic growth.
Why this confidence: Independent energy-demand scenarios ↑, Long forecast horizon ↓, Chevron's mixed oil and gas portfolio ↑
Measured by
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- The IEA projects natural-gas demand growing nearly 0.01 annually through 2035 under stated policies.[IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 stated policies]· primary
Evidence against
- The IEA projects oil demand peaking around 2030 and gradually declining thereafter under stated policies.[IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 stated policies]· primary
Bull
low confidence$344.54
IV / share
+63.0% vs $211.32
- Explicit cash flows
- $51.36
- Terminal value
- $290.68
- Net cash
- $2.50
- Intrinsic value / share
- $344.54
84.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth12.0% → 7.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%low
How derived: Record first-half production, higher realizations and the Guyana, TCO, Permian and Gulf growth portfolio support strong early growth that gradually converges toward management's long-run production plan.
Why this confidence: Record current production ↑, Large sanctioned resource portfolio ↑, Assumed favorable commodity prices ↓
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron's first-half 2026 production increased 0.18, while second-quarter U.S. and international liquids realizations rose to 70.80 and 96.41 dollars per barrel.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The Hess acquisition added a 0.30 interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, which Chevron says contains more than 11 billion barrels of discovered recoverable resources.[Chevron completes Hess acquisition]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron's own long-term production objective is only 0.02 to 0.03 annual growth through 2030.[Chevron 2025 Investor Day]· primary
Operating margin19.0%low
How derived: First-half 2026 pretax income plus interest was roughly 0.186 of sales, and this case assumes full cost synergies and a favorable asset mix sustain that profitability.
Why this confidence: Achieved cost and synergy targets ↑, Current high commodity realizations ↓, Diversified upstream and downstream mix ↑
Measured by
- Worldwide net production, annual daily average3,723 thousand boe/dayreported
- International liquids realization, annual average61.58 USD/barrelreported
- Worldwide refinery utilization, annual92.9%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron reported 3 billion dollars of annual run-rate structural savings and 1.5 billion dollars of Hess-related annual synergies by the second quarter of 2026.[Chevron 2Q 2026 operating update]· primary
- Second-quarter 2026 upstream earnings benefited materially from both higher sales volumes and higher liquids realizations.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron's annual return on capital employed fell from 0.101 in 2024 to 0.066 in 2025 as commodity prices weakened.[Chevron 2025 results]· primary
Tax rate28.0%medium
How derived: The assumption begins with the 0.27 second-quarter 2026 effective rate and adds a modest buffer for normal changes in foreign earnings and tax items.
Why this confidence: Current quarterly tax disclosure ↑, Historically volatile foreign tax mix ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Chevron reported a 0.27 effective tax rate in the second quarter of 2026 as earnings increased in a more favorable jurisdictional mix.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q income taxes]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 effective rate was 0.368, demonstrating that foreign taxes, valuation allowances and cross-border rules can move the rate substantially.[Chevron 2025 Form 10-K income taxes]· primary
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
How derived: Chevron's lower 18 billion to 21 billion dollar capital range, completed megaprojects and achieved cost savings support faster growth while consuming a smaller share of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated free-cash-flow conversion ↑, High upstream maintenance needs ↓, Completed large projects ↑
Measured by
- Consolidated capital expenditure, annual$17Breported
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- Chevron reduced long-term capital guidance to 18 billion to 21 billion dollars per year while targeting adjusted free-cash-flow growth above 0.10 annually at 70-dollar Brent.[Chevron 2025 Investor Day]· primary
- First-half 2026 free cash flow was 16.546 billion dollars after 8.601 billion dollars of capital expenditure.[Chevron 2Q 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Chevron still expects approximately 17 billion dollars of 2026 upstream capital spending, including major shale and offshore programs.[Chevron 2026 capital budget]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The IEA's current-policies case shows continued oil and gas demand growth through 2050, and Chevron's Guyana, LNG, chemicals and power assets could preserve modest real growth alongside inflation.
Why this confidence: Multiple long-lived growth assets ↑, Energy-policy uncertainty ↓, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- One-year proved reserve replacement158.0%reported
Evidence for
- The IEA current-policies scenario projects global oil demand reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2050 and global natural-gas demand reaching 5,600 billion cubic metres.[IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 current policies]· primary
Evidence against
- Under the IEA stated-policies scenario, oil demand peaks around 2030 and renewables supply all incremental energy demand from the 2030s.[IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 stated policies]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating41 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 80% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The bear-to-bull range spans 185% of the base value — the outcome is highly uncertain.→ scenarios
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
- Diluted share count grew 15% year over year, which reduces per-share participation in business growth.→ per-share economics
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -5.8% | 3.11 | 16.7% | 1.81B | -3.7% |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0% | 0.72 | -51.4% | 1.75B | -5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | -10.5% | 2.82 | 122.1% | 1.72B | -5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | -1.5% | 2.54 | -18.3% | 1.95B | 7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 3.2% | -0.78 | -208.3% | 1.99B | 13.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 51.4% | 9.16 | 224.8% | 1.98B | 14.5% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The input is the latest reported 10-year U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yield in the September 4, 2026 H.15 release.
A bottom-up beta of 0.30 is used from NYU Stern's January 2026 U.S. integrated oil and gas industry dataset because it reduces company-specific regression noise.
The input is NYU Stern's September 1, 2026 trailing-12-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium.
The input is Chevron's September 4, 2026 closing market price.
Generated 9/5/2026, 3:32:11 PM · pipeline v1.2.0