DIS
Walt Disney CoNYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives DIS's base case?
base-case thesisDisney enters the forecast with three quarters of accelerating sales growth and sharply better streaming economics. Parks, cruise capacity, pricing, and international streaming sustain growth, while traditional television and sports costs remain offsets. Profitability settles just below the strongest recent quarter as the company continues investing heavily in attractions and technology.
What shapes the assumptions
Experiences demand and pricing
Fiscal Q3 2026 Parks and Experiences revenue grew 0.10 from roughly 0.06 volume and 0.03 rate
Raises revenue growth
Streaming monetization
Fiscal Q3 2026 Entertainment SVOD subscription revenue grew 0.15 and SVOD margin reached 0.13
Raises operating margin
Traditional television decline
Fiscal 2025 Linear Networks revenue declined 0.12
Lowers revenue growth
Expansion spending
Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures are expected near $9 billion
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 18.0% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 9.3% a year — so the price assumes more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 36.3% operating margin, against the 21.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 46.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Annual total segment operating margin
This measures profit across Disney's operating segments relative to revenue and captures streaming improvement and the mix of Experiences, Sports, and Entertainment.
18.6%
derived2. Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin
This shows whether Disney+, Hulu, and related direct services are converting subscription and advertising revenue into recurring profit.
5.4%
derived3. Annual Experiences revenue
This tracks Disney's largest profit engine, including parks, resorts, cruises, and consumer products.
$36B
reported4. Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue
This measures the cash intensity of park, cruise, attraction, facility, and technology investment.
8.5%
derived5. Annual free cash flow margin
This measures the cash remaining from operations after capital expenditures relative to revenue.
10.7%
derivedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$98.9B
Diluted shares
1,743,000,000
Net cash
-$40.9B
Bear
low confidence$25.73
IV / share
-76.0% vs $107.16
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.15
- Terminal value
- $35.02
- Net cash
- -$23.44
- Intrinsic value / share
- $25.73
136.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth4.0% → 3.0% → 2.5% → 2.0% → 1.8%medium
How derived: Revenue grew 0.067 in fiscal Q3 2026, but this path assumes that softer Asian parks, uneven films, linear-network erosion, and sports-rights pressure progressively outweigh streaming and cruise growth.
Why this confidence: Three consecutive quarters of supplied revenue growth ↑, Film performance and consumer demand are volatile ↓
Measured by
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
Evidence for
- Disney reported fiscal Q3 2026 Sports operating income down 0.17, continued softness at Asian parks, and two films that underperformed its box-office expectations.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal Q3 2026 consolidated revenue grew 0.07, including 0.10 growth at Experiences and 0.11 growth in Entertainment SVOD revenue.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Operating margin18.0%medium
How derived: Recent supplied quarterly margins ranged from 0.177 to 0.220, and this case assumes streaming gains merely offset sports-cost inflation, linear decline, and weaker mix.
Why this confidence: Recent company-wide profitability observations ↑, Segment mix and content timing vary substantially ↓
Measured by
- Annual total segment operating margin18.6%derived
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Evidence for
- Sports segment operating income fell 0.17 in fiscal Q3 2026, and Disney warned that sports-rights costs may rise faster than revenue.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal Q3 2026 total segment operating income grew 0.21 and Entertainment SVOD achieved a 0.13 margin.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Tax rate27.0%medium
How derived: The fiscal Q3 2026 rate was 0.220 but the nine-month rate was 0.272 after transaction-related charges, so this case assumes recurring tax friction remains near the higher recent level.
Why this confidence: Directly reported quarterly and year-to-date tax rates ↑, Transaction and audit adjustments distort reported rates ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Disney reported a 0.272 effective tax rate for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, including roughly four percentage points of transaction-related non-cash charges.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The fiscal Q3 2026 effective tax rate was 0.220, materially below the nine-month rate.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%low
How derived: Disney expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures near $9 billion versus $8.024 billion in fiscal 2025, and this case assumes heavy parks and technology spending absorbs 0.55 of after-tax operating profit while delivering weak incremental growth.
Why this confidence: Near-term capital-spending guidance ↑, Reinvestment includes working capital and content investment not captured by capital expenditures alone ↓
Measured by
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Evidence for
- Disney reiterated approximately $9 billion of fiscal 2026 capital expenditures, mainly for theme-park expansion and new attractions.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects future Experiences capital projects to deliver double-digit returns over their lifetimes.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The mature portfolio still benefits from pricing and intellectual property, but persistent linear-network declines and economic sensitivity justify long-run growth below the central case.
Why this confidence: Diversified mature business mix ↑, Terminal-period assumptions extend beyond observable guidance ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Fiscal 2025 domestic linear affiliate revenue reflected 0.09 fewer subscribers, while domestic linear advertising revenue was pressured by 0.08 fewer impressions.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- Disney reported fiscal Q3 2026 global Experiences guests up 0.04 and plans further cruise capacity and park expansion.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Base
low confidence$52.15
IV / share
-51.3% vs $107.16
- Explicit cash flows
- $20.06
- Terminal value
- $55.52
- Net cash
- -$23.44
- Intrinsic value / share
- $52.15
106.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.5% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0% → 3.5%medium
How derived: The path begins below fiscal Q3 2026 growth of 0.067 and gradually moderates as streaming, parks, and cruises expand while linear television contracts.
Why this confidence: Current segment growth disclosures ↑, Five-year content and consumer-demand uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
Price implies: 18.0% vs our 4.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue grew 0.07, with Entertainment up 0.06, Sports up 0.04, and Experiences up 0.10.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Management identified continued Asian park softness, film underperformance, and a network carriage dispute during fiscal Q3 2026.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Operating margin21.0%medium
How derived: The supplied fiscal Q3 2026 margin reached 0.220 and total segment operating income grew 0.21, so the case assumes most streaming and Experiences gains persist but allows for corporate costs and sports pressure.
Why this confidence: Improving supplied quarterly margin trend ↑, One-time benefits and segment volatility ↓
Measured by
- Annual total segment operating margin18.6%derived
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Price implies: 36.3% vs our 21.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Entertainment SVOD earned a 0.13 margin in fiscal Q3 2026, and Experiences earned an approximately 0.30 segment margin over the first nine months.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal Q3 Sports operating income declined 0.17, and approximately four points of Experiences profit growth came from a tariff refund.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: A normalized rate near 0.24 reflects the 0.21 federal rate plus state and foreign taxes, while excluding the unusual Hulu and transaction effects that distorted fiscal 2025 and 2026 results.
Why this confidence: Statutory and normalized historical rates ↑, Geographic mix and future tax adjustments ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Disney's fiscal 2024 effective tax rate was 0.237, before fiscal 2025's unusually large Hulu tax benefit.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The fiscal 2026 nine-month effective rate was 0.272 because transaction-related charges added approximately four percentage points.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: With fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guided near $9 billion and content and technology also requiring investment, the case retains 0.50 of after-tax operating profit to support moderate growth.
Why this confidence: Published capital-investment program ↑, Future content investment and working capital are difficult to normalize ↓
Measured by
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Evidence for
- Capital expenditures rose from $4.969 billion in fiscal 2023 to $8.024 billion in fiscal 2025, with approximately $9 billion expected in fiscal 2026.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal 2025 cash provided by operations increased to $18.101 billion, more than covering $8.024 billion of capital expenditures.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Long-run growth of 0.025 assumes mature-market pricing and global consumer growth offset continued linear-network decline without extending the recent 0.05-to-0.07 growth pace indefinitely.
Why this confidence: Multiple durable consumer franchises and global businesses ↑, Long forecast horizon ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Disney plans to roughly triple local Disney+ original series over three years, add cruise capacity, and expand parks and attractions.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal 2025 linear-network revenue declined, including a 0.12 decrease in total Linear Networks revenue.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Bull
low confidence$85.50
IV / share
-20.2% vs $107.16
- Explicit cash flows
- $26.87
- Terminal value
- $82.06
- Net cash
- -$23.44
- Intrinsic value / share
- $85.50
96.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0%low
How derived: This path extends fiscal Q3 2026 growth of 0.067 as streaming retention, higher cruise capacity, park investment, pricing, and successful intellectual property launches compound across the company.
Why this confidence: Specific streaming and cruise capacity catalysts ↑, Growth materially exceeds recent full-year experience ↓
Measured by
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
Evidence for
- Fiscal Q3 2026 Experiences revenue grew 0.10, Entertainment SVOD subscription revenue grew 0.15, and two new cruise ships increased stateroom capacity by approximately 0.50.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Disney's reported annual revenue growth was only 0.034 in fiscal 2025, and recent films and Asian parks showed uneven demand.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Operating margin24.0%low
How derived: Starting from the supplied fiscal Q3 2026 margin of 0.220, the case adds scale benefits from higher-margin Experiences, improving streaming retention, and cross-business use of successful franchises.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated streaming and Experiences profitability ↑, Target exceeds the supplied recent consolidated range ↓
Measured by
- Annual total segment operating margin18.6%derived
- Annual Direct-to-Consumer operating margin5.4%derived
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Evidence for
- Experiences produced an approximately 0.30 segment margin over the first nine months of fiscal 2026, while fiscal Q3 Entertainment operating income rose 0.64.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal Q3 2026 Sports operating income fell 0.17, and the filing warns that programming-rights costs may rise faster than revenue.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate22.0%low
How derived: The assumption uses the fiscal Q3 2026 rate of 0.220 and assumes geographic mix, tax credits, and accelerated deductions offset state taxes without repeating fiscal 2025's exceptional Hulu benefit.
Why this confidence: Matches the latest reported quarter ↑, Below normalized multiyear tax experience ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Disney reported a 0.220 effective tax rate in fiscal Q3 2026, and U.S. legislation accelerates deductions for qualifying fixed-asset and content investments.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The fiscal 2026 nine-month effective rate was 0.272, demonstrating the potential impact of transaction charges and other tax friction.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
How derived: Despite the large parks and technology program, the case assumes franchise reuse, streaming scale, and double-digit project returns allow 0.45 of after-tax operating profit to support faster growth.
Why this confidence: Management's stated project-return expectations ↑, Assumes unusually high incremental capital efficiency ↓
Measured by
- Annual Experiences revenue$36Breported
- Annual capital expenditures as a share of revenue8.5%derived
- Annual free cash flow margin10.7%derived
Evidence for
- Management expects future Experiences projects to earn double-digit lifetime returns and described using common intellectual property across films, streaming, merchandise, parks, and cruises.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- Capital expenditures reached $8.024 billion in fiscal 2025 and are expected to approach $9 billion in fiscal 2026.[Disney Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: A 0.030 long-run rate assumes Disney's global pricing power, streaming ecosystem, expanding Experiences footprint, and reusable franchises keep pace with nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Global brand and physical capacity expansion ↑, Aggressive perpetual assumption for a mature company ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Disney reported global Experiences guests up 0.04, domestic per-capita spending up 0.04, and plans to introduce a broader Disney+ membership ecosystem beginning in spring 2027.[Disney Q3 FY2026 shareholder letter]· primary
Evidence against
- The company operates mature businesses and continues to face structural subscriber and advertising declines in linear television.[Disney FY2025 annual report]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating46 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 106% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 4.8% | 0.41 | -15.8% | 1.82B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | 7.0% | 2.7 | 105.4% | 1.81B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1% | 1.05 | 54.7% | 1.81B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 5.2% | -1.27 | -412.6% | 1.79B | -1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 6.5% | 2.79 | 3.4% | 1.77B | -2.3% |
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | 1.76 | 68.4% | 1.74B | -3.4% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The latest available U.S. Treasury daily par curve before the valuation date reported a 0.0478 ten-year yield.
The most recent accessible five-year market beta for DIS was 1.42, used without adjustment because Disney retains meaningful cyclical parks, advertising, and theatrical exposure.
The July 1, 2026 forward-looking implied premium for U.S. equities using trailing cash distributions and an adjusted payout was 0.0418.
DIS closed at $105.31 on September 4, 2026, the latest trading day before the valuation date.
Generated 9/6/2026, 3:40:52 AM · pipeline v1.2.0