GEV
GE Vernova Inc.NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives GEV's base case?
base-case thesisPower and Electrification are converting strong demand, better pricing, and a much larger order book into faster sales and higher profits. Wind remains a drag, so the company does not immediately earn the full profitability implied by its stronger businesses. Growth gradually slows as the company becomes larger, while services and factory improvements support a durable rise in profit per sales dollar.
What shapes the assumptions
Two consecutive quarters of accelerating sales growth
Year-over-year revenue growth rose from 0.0376 in Q4 2025 to 0.1627 in Q1 2026 and 0.2187 in Q2 2026
Raises revenue growth
Full-year growth started from a lower base
2025 revenue growth was 0.0896 compared with Q2 2026 growth of 0.2187
Informs revenue growth
Profitability has improved across recent quarters
Operating margin increased from 0.0054 in Q1 2025 to 0.0588 in Q2 2026
Raises operating margin
Sales are growing faster than current profits
Q2 2026 revenue growth was 0.2187 while operating margin remained 0.0588
Informs operating margin
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 42.5% a year. There is not enough reported history to say how that compares with what it has actually done.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 54.6% operating margin, against the 17.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 55.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Total period-end backlog
Firm equipment and service obligations indicate the amount of future work already contracted and therefore provide the clearest visibility into revenue.
$176B
reported2. Gas equipment backlog plus reservations
Contracted and reserved gas-turbine capacity measures future equipment deliveries and the installed base that can later generate recurring service revenue.
116 GW
reported3. Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin
This measures the profitability of the largest segment on a comparable quarterly basis and captures pricing, service mix, volume, and factory productivity.
18.8%
reported4. Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin
This tracks whether grid-equipment demand and Prolec GE scale are translating into higher profit rather than revenue growth alone.
18.4%
reported5. Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin
This measures whether lower turbine volume and offshore project costs continue to offset earnings generated by Power and Electrification.
-13.6%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$41.4B
Diluted shares
270,000,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$144.33
IV / share
-84.7% vs $941.48
- Explicit cash flows
- $38.55
- Terminal value
- $105.78
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $144.33
73.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth19.5% → 7.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%medium
How derived: The fiscal 2026 starting rate reflects the low end of management's $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion guidance relative to 2025 revenue, followed by rapid deceleration because Wind is shrinking and the current surge in equipment orders may normalize.
Why this confidence: Management's current-year guidance and contracted backlog ↑, Uncertain conversion of unusually strong orders beyond 2027 ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- Wind revenue declined 0.11 organically in the second quarter of 2026 and its orders declined 0.40, demonstrating that strong Power and Electrification demand is not broad-based.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion after second-quarter orders rose 0.88 organically and backlog reached $176.3 billion.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin13.0%low
How derived: The latest reported operating margin was 0.0588, and this case allows improvement from pricing and scale but assumes Wind losses, tariffs, restructuring, and depreciation prevent the company from approaching its 0.20 adjusted EBITDA outlook.
Why this confidence: Reported segment profitability and cost disclosures ↑, Required conversion from adjusted EBITDA to operating profit ↓, Volatile Wind project charges ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- Wind posted a second-quarter segment EBITDA margin of negative 0.136 as lower Onshore Wind volume and higher Offshore Wind project costs increased losses.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Power and Electrification produced second-quarter segment EBITDA margins of 0.188 and 0.184, respectively, while management continues to target a company adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.20 by 2028.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results and outlook]· primary
Tax rate25.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate, this case adds a sustained burden for foreign-jurisdiction losses that yield no tax benefit, consistent with the 0.298 effective rate reported for the latest quarter.
Why this confidence: Statutory rate and current tax reconciliation ↑, Geographic earnings mix and tax credits can change ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate was 0.298 because of Prolec GE purchase-accounting estimates and losses providing no tax benefit in some jurisdictions.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The U.S. federal statutory rate is 0.21, and stock-compensation benefits partially reduced the company's latest quarterly tax burden.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: Management plans $11 billion of capital expenditure and research spending from 2025 through 2028, and this case assumes manufacturing bottlenecks and Wind remediation consume half of normalized after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Published multiyear investment commitment ↑, Working-capital advances make accounting reinvestment difficult to normalize ↓
Measured by
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- Management committed to $6 billion of capital expenditure and $5 billion of research spending from 2025 through 2028, while expanding Power and Electrification production.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Customer advances increased contract liabilities and helped first-half 2026 free cash flow reach $9.9 billion, reducing the amount of internally generated operating profit needed to finance growth.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: EIA projects long-run U.S. electricity-use growth of 0.009 to 0.016, but this case holds nominal company growth to 0.02 because mature equipment markets, competition, and Wind weakness offset inflation.
Why this confidence: Official long-run electricity-demand scenarios ↑, Terminal assumptions extend far beyond visible backlog ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- EIA projects U.S. electricity consumption to grow only 0.009 to 0.016 annually through 2050 across its cases.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
Evidence against
- EIA expects installed generating capacity to increase 0.50 to 0.90 by 2050, while the Federal Reserve continues to target 0.02 long-run inflation.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
Base
low confidence$292.96
IV / share
-68.9% vs $941.48
- Explicit cash flows
- $67.35
- Terminal value
- $225.61
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $292.96
77.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
base operating margin (17%) sits well above the best recent margin (6%)
Revenue growth20.9% → 11.0% → 9.0% → 7.5% → 6.0%medium
How derived: Fiscal 2026 uses the midpoint of management's raised revenue guidance relative to 2025, after which growth moderates as the $176.3 billion backlog supports Power and Electrification but Wind and increasing scale dilute the rate.
Why this confidence: Near-term guidance and large firm backlog ↑, Acquisition effects complicate the current growth baseline ↓, Five-year forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Price implies: 42.5% vs our 10.9% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Second-quarter revenue increased 0.22 on a reported basis, total backlog reached $176.3 billion, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Organic company revenue growth was 0.12 rather than the reported 0.22 in the second quarter because acquisition and currency effects contributed to reported growth.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin17.0%medium
How derived: The latest operating margin was 0.0588, and the base case assumes price, volume, services, and cost reductions close most of the gap to management's 0.20 adjusted EBITDA objective while retaining a deduction for depreciation and recurring operating costs.
Why this confidence: Visible margin improvement in the two largest profitable segments ↑, Management's outlook is an adjusted EBITDA measure ↓, Wind turnaround timing remains uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Price implies: 54.6% vs our 17.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Power and Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margins rose to 0.188 and 0.184 as volume, price, and productivity improved.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
- Management expects a company adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.20 by 2028 and is targeting $600 million of corporate cost reductions.[GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update]· primary
Evidence against
- Wind's second-quarter segment EBITDA margin deteriorated to negative 0.136, and the company's reported net-income margin was only 0.058.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate23.0%medium
How derived: The assumption begins with the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate and adds a modest recurring burden for state, international, and nondeductible losses, broadly consistent with the 0.226 first-half 2025 effective rate.
Why this confidence: Comparable 2025 quarterly effective rates ↑, Acquisition gains, valuation allowances, and tax credits create volatility ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The effective tax rates for the second quarter and first half of 2025 were 0.237 and 0.226, respectively.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The first-half 2026 effective rate was only 0.105 because of a nontaxable acquisition gain and stock-compensation benefits, showing that reported rates can differ sharply from a normalized rate.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Management's $11 billion capex-and-research program requires substantial reinvestment, but growing profit and customer deposits should allow the program to consume about 0.40 of normalized after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Company-disclosed capex and research plan ↑, Reinvestment rate depends on future normalized operating profit ↓, Customer advances can reverse as equipment is delivered ↓
Measured by
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- GE Vernova plans approximately $6 billion of capital expenditure and $5 billion of research spending from 2025 through 2028.[GE Vernova 2025 Annual Report]· primary
Evidence against
- Contract liabilities increased by $14.1 billion during the first half of 2026 as customer collections exceeded revenue recognition, providing an unusually favorable source of growth funding.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.8%low
How derived: Combining the low end of EIA's 0.009 to 0.016 long-run electricity-demand range with approximately 0.02 inflation supports a 0.028 nominal perpetual rate after allowing for competition and geographic diversification.
Why this confidence: Official inflation and electricity-demand anchors ↑, Very long forecast horizon and company-specific market-share uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- EIA projects electricity consumption to grow 0.009 to 0.016 annually through 2050, led increasingly by data-center demand.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
- Federal Reserve communications continue to identify 0.02 as the longer-run inflation objective.[Federal Reserve July 2026 minutes]· primary
Evidence against
- EIA's long-run electricity-demand range is materially slower than GE Vernova's current revenue growth and does not guarantee equivalent growth for any single equipment supplier.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
Bull
low confidence$480.05
IV / share
-49.0% vs $941.48
- Explicit cash flows
- $94.80
- Terminal value
- $385.24
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $480.05
80.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull operating margin (19%) sits well above the best recent margin (6%)
Revenue growth22.2% → 15.0% → 13.0% → 11.0% → 9.0%low
How derived: Fiscal 2026 reflects the high end of raised guidance relative to 2025, followed by sustained double-digit growth as the $176.3 billion backlog, 116 gigawatts of contracted gas capacity, Prolec GE, and data-center grid demand convert into deliveries.
Why this confidence: Large and rapidly growing contracted backlog ↑, Assumes continued market-share gains well beyond current guidance ↓, Capacity expansion and supply-chain execution risk ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- Total backlog reached $176.3 billion, gas equipment backlog plus slot reservations reached 116 gigawatts, and data-center orders exceeded $5 billion in the first half of 2026.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
- Electrification organic revenue increased 0.29 in the second quarter, supported by transformers, switchgear, substations, and high-voltage direct-current systems.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Wind organic revenue declined 0.11 in the latest quarter, and EIA's long-run electricity-demand scenarios grow only 0.009 to 0.016 annually.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin19.0%low
How derived: This case assumes the latest 0.0588 operating margin rises toward 0.19 as Power and Electrification sustain margins near 0.19, corporate cost reductions arrive, and Wind approaches breakeven, while remaining below management's 0.20 adjusted EBITDA objective after depreciation.
Why this confidence: Power and Electrification have nearly reached the assumed level on an EBITDA basis ↑, Requires a substantial Wind recovery ↓, Adjusted EBITDA is not equivalent to operating profit ↓
Measured by
- Total period-end backlog$176Breported
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Electrification second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.4%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- Power and Electrification already generated second-quarter segment EBITDA margins of 0.188 and 0.184, and management targets 0.22 for each segment by 2028.[GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update]· primary
Evidence against
- Wind's second-quarter segment EBITDA loss was $275 million and its margin was negative 0.136, while acquisition-related intangible amortization increased after Prolec GE.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: The bull case uses the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate because stronger profitability could utilize tax attributes and reduce losses without tax benefits, offsetting state and foreign tax leakage.
Why this confidence: Clear federal statutory-rate anchor ↑, Assumes improved utilization of tax attributes ↓, International and state tax mix remains uncertain ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The federal statutory tax rate is 0.21, and stock-based compensation has provided tax benefits in recent periods.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The latest quarterly effective rate was 0.298 because of acquisition accounting and losses providing no tax benefit in certain jurisdictions.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes pricing, lean productivity, higher normalized profit, and customer advances let the company finance its disclosed investment program with 0.32 of after-tax operating profit even while absolute investment remains high.
Why this confidence: Strong current cash generation and customer funding ↑, Assumed improvement in investment efficiency ↓, Large capacity-expansion commitments ↓
Measured by
- Gas equipment backlog plus reservations116 GWreported
- Power second-quarter segment EBITDA margin18.8%reported
- Wind second-quarter segment EBITDA margin-13.6%reported
Evidence for
- First-half free cash flow reached $9.9 billion as customer advances and stronger adjusted EBITDA funded investment, and management raised full-year free-cash-flow guidance to $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion.[GE Vernova 2Q 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The company plans $11 billion of capex and research spending through 2028 and is expanding gas-turbine and grid-equipment capacity, which could require a larger share of operating profit if customer advances slow.[GE Vernova 2025 Annual Report]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%low
How derived: The upper end of EIA's 0.009 to 0.016 real electricity-demand range plus approximately 0.02 inflation supports 0.035 nominal growth if GE Vernova maintains its position across generation, grid equipment, and services.
Why this confidence: Official high-demand electricity scenario ↑, Assumes durable market share and pricing over an indefinite horizon ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- EIA's high-demand cases project electricity consumption growth of up to 0.016 annually through 2050, with data-center load a major driver.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
- EIA projects installed generating capacity to increase between 0.50 and 0.90 by 2050.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· primary
Evidence against
- The 0.035 assumption is near the upper bound of real industry growth plus long-run inflation and therefore requires GE Vernova to avoid long-term market-share erosion.[EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026]· estimate
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating55 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 77% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 8.0% | 3.52 | 1754.8% | 275M | 0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 10.6% | 3.49 | 244.9% | 279M | 1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | 11.1% | 0.7 | -76.2% | 276M | -0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | 11.8% | 2.67 | -24.3% | 275M | 0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 16.3% | 17.61 | 404.0% | 272M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 21.9% | 18.91 | 2590.4% | 270M | -2.2% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the published market beta for GEV on the September 4, 2026 quote page; confidence is limited because the company has traded independently only since 2024 and beta varies materially by lookback methodology.
The value is the September 1, 2026 implied U.S. equity risk premium based on trailing earnings and adjusted payout.
Generated 9/5/2026, 9:38:59 PM · pipeline v1.2.0