GILD
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives GILD's base case?
base-case thesisThe core business accelerated in early 2026 as HIV products, Trodelvy, and Livdelzi grew together. The forecast lets that momentum continue but fade as the revenue base grows and weaker Cell Therapy and legacy products create offsets. Stable drug-production economics and moderate cost discipline support a gradual improvement in the share of sales retained as profit.
What shapes the assumptions
Second-quarter 2026 HIV sales grew 0.12
HIV portfolio sales growth
Raises revenue growth
Second-quarter 2026 Trodelvy sales grew 0.26
Trodelvy sales growth
Raises revenue growth
Product gross margin held near 0.79
Product gross margin
Raises operating margin
Recurring 2025 research spending was $5.799 billion
Research and development expense
Raises reinvestment
Cell Therapy sales fell 0.14 in the latest quarter
Cell Therapy sales growth
Lowers revenue growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 5.2% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 2.9% a year — so the price assumes more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 38.0% operating margin, against the 36.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 33.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Annual product sales excluding Veklury
This measures the recurring commercial base without volatile COVID-treatment demand and is the clearest indicator of sustainable company-wide growth.
$28B
reported2. Annual Biktarvy sales
Biktarvy is Gilead's largest product, so its demand, pricing, and eventual patent transition have an outsized effect on revenue and cash generation.
$14B
reported3. Annual Trodelvy sales
Trodelvy sales measure whether Gilead is building a material conventional-oncology franchise beyond its mature antiviral business.
$1.4B
reported4. Annual Cell Therapy sales
This tracks whether Yescarta and Tecartus can resume growth despite reported competitive pressure, affecting both diversification and infrastructure utilization.
$1.8B
reported5. Annual product gross margin
This measures the profit left after manufacturing and royalty costs and establishes the ceiling for sustainable company profitability.
78.4%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$30.5B
Diluted shares
1,243,000,000
Net cash
-$23.1B
Bear
low confidence$67.45
IV / share
-55.4% vs $151.22
- Explicit cash flows
- $18.20
- Terminal value
- $67.80
- Net cash
- -$18.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $67.45
100.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth2.5% → 1.0% → -0.5% → -1.5% → -2.0%medium
How derived: Starting from 0.10 second-quarter base-business growth but only 0.024 reported full-year growth in 2025, this path assumes slowing HIV momentum, continued Cell Therapy declines, pricing pressure, and insufficient pipeline sales to prevent modest contraction.
Why this confidence: Current company guidance and reported segment results ↑, Five-year drug-launch and competition uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
Evidence for
- Cell Therapy sales fell 0.14 year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while Veklury sales fell 0.81.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- Gilead disclosed that mature products face payer pressure and that generic entry can erode both price and market share.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 product sales excluding Veklury grew 0.10, led by HIV, Trodelvy, and Livdelzi.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin31.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the approximately 0.34 reported 2025 operating margin, the estimate assumes pricing pressure, weaker Cell Therapy utilization, and persistently elevated research and commercialization spending outweigh scale benefits.
Why this confidence: Audited annual cost structure ↑, Large and irregular acquired research charges ↓
Measured by
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
- Annual product gross margin78.4%reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 research and development expense rose to $1.8 billion and selling, general and administrative expense rose to $1.9 billion, including acquisition integration and HIV promotion costs.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Product gross margin was 0.793 in the second quarter of 2026 and 2025 operating income was $10.022 billion on $29.443 billion of revenue.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results and 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate21.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the 0.131 reported 2025 rate but approximately 0.21 initial 2026 GAAP guidance, the estimate uses the higher level to allow for fewer discrete benefits, global minimum taxes, and nondeductible expenses.
Why this confidence: Company tax guidance ↑, Jurisdiction mix and discrete tax items ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Gilead's initial 2026 guidance contemplated an approximately 0.21 GAAP effective tax rate before acquisition charges made the updated rate not economically meaningful.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- The reported 2025 effective tax rate was 0.131.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
How derived: Starting from recurring research spending near 0.20 of 2025 revenue and substantial external pipeline investment, the estimate assumes 0.30 of after-tax operating profit must be retained because weaker project productivity requires more spending per unit of growth.
Why this confidence: Audited research spending and disclosed acquisitions ↑, Drug-development returns cannot be observed contemporaneously ↓
Measured by
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
Evidence for
- Gilead recorded $11.3 billion of acquired in-process research and development expense in the first half of 2026 after acquiring Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro Medicines.[Gilead Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The company generated $3.6 billion of operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 despite elevated acquisition activity.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth1.0%low
How derived: Starting from long-dated protection for Biktarvy and Yeztugo but earlier expirations for several other products, the estimate assumes mature growth below broad nominal economic growth because pricing and generic erosion eventually dominate.
Why this confidence: Disclosed patent-expiration schedule ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
Evidence for
- Gilead states that generic entry has led and may continue to lead to market-share and price erosion.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Full-dose Biktarvy generic entry under current settlements is not expected before April 2036, and Yeztugo's listed U.S. patent expiration is 2037.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Base
low confidence$142.49
IV / share
-5.8% vs $151.22
- Explicit cash flows
- $25.91
- Terminal value
- $135.14
- Net cash
- -$18.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $142.49
94.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.5% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0% → 2.5%medium
How derived: Starting from 0.10 second-quarter base-business growth and management's raised 2026 base-business outlook, the path moderates as Biktarvy becomes larger and newer HIV, liver, and oncology products partly offset declining legacy products.
Why this confidence: Management guidance and current product-level sales ↑, Launch adoption and competitive response ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
Price implies: 5.2% vs our 4.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 HIV sales grew 0.12, Trodelvy grew 0.26, and the liver portfolio grew 0.10.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- Management raised 2026 product-sales-excluding-Veklury guidance to $29.8 billion-$30.1 billion.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Full-year 2025 total revenue grew only 0.024 and Cell Therapy sales declined 0.07.[Gilead FY2025 Results]· primary
Operating margin36.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the approximately 0.34 reported 2025 margin and a 0.784 product gross margin, the estimate assumes modest scale efficiencies while retaining substantial research and launch spending.
Why this confidence: Stable reported product gross margin ↑, Uncertain acquisition integration costs ↓
Measured by
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
- Annual product gross margin78.4%reported
Price implies: 38.0% vs our 36.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Product gross margin was stable at 0.784 in 2025 and 0.793 in the second quarter of 2026.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 SG&A increased to $1.9 billion because of integration costs and higher HIV promotional activity.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate19.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the unusually low 0.131 reported 2025 rate and approximately 0.20 initial non-GAAP 2026 guidance, the estimate normalizes at 0.19 to reflect geographic earnings mix without assuming repeated discrete benefits.
Why this confidence: Explicit company tax guidance ↑, Volatile historical effective rates ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Gilead initially guided to an approximately 0.20 non-GAAP effective tax rate for 2026.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- The reported 2025 effective tax rate was 0.131, while the 2024 rate was 0.305, demonstrating substantial volatility.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate25.0%low
How derived: Starting from $5.799 billion of recurring 2025 research expense plus external pipeline purchases, the estimate retains 0.25 of after-tax operating profit to support mid-single-digit growth while smoothing irregular acquisition outlays.
Why this confidence: Reported recurring research expense ↑, Highly irregular acquisition spending ↓
Measured by
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
Evidence for
- Recurring research and development expense was $5.799 billion in 2025, approximately 0.197 of revenue.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 acquired research expense was $11.3 billion, showing that external replenishment can require substantially more capital than a normalized rate captures.[Gilead Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Starting from patent protection into 2036-2037 for the central HIV franchises, the estimate assumes durable but mature nominal growth below the current Treasury yield as innovation offsets most, but not all, long-run price and patent erosion.
Why this confidence: Product-specific patent schedule ↑, Long-run pipeline and policy uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
Evidence for
- Current settlements defer expected full-dose Biktarvy generic entry in the United States until April 2036, and Yeztugo's listed U.S. patent expiration is 2037.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Trodelvy's listed patent expiration is 2028 in the United States and 2029 in Europe, and several older HIV products lose listed protection earlier than Biktarvy.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$219.18
IV / share
+44.9% vs $151.22
- Explicit cash flows
- $32.48
- Terminal value
- $205.25
- Net cash
- -$18.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $219.18
93.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth8.0% → 7.5% → 6.5% → 5.5% → 4.5%low
How derived: Starting from 0.10 second-quarter base-business growth, the path assumes Yeztugo expands prevention demand, Biktarvy remains durable, and Trodelvy, Livdelzi, and acquired pipeline assets collectively sustain broad growth.
Why this confidence: Broad current growth across several products ↑, Requires multiple launches and pipeline programs to succeed ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 product sales excluding Veklury grew 0.10; HIV grew 0.12, Descovy 0.48, Trodelvy 0.26, and liver products 0.10.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- Yeztugo generated $397 million of sales in the first half of 2026 versus $15 million in the comparable prior-year period.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Cell Therapy sales fell 0.14 in the second quarter, and management still guided 2026 total product sales to only $30.1 billion-$30.4 billion.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin40.0%low
How derived: Starting from a 0.784-0.793 recent product gross margin and approximately 0.34 reported 2025 operating margin, the estimate assumes successful launches scale over a largely established manufacturing and commercial platform.
Why this confidence: High and stable product gross profitability ↑, Execution needed to obtain substantial scale leverage ↓
Measured by
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
- Annual Cell Therapy sales$1.8Breported
- Annual product gross margin78.4%reported
Evidence for
- Non-GAAP product gross margin was 0.869 in the second quarter of 2026, indicating strong incremental economics before research and commercial costs.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 reported expenses included $11.2 billion of acquired research charges, $1.8 billion of R&D, and $1.9 billion of SG&A.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate18.0%low
How derived: Starting from the 0.131 reported 2025 rate and approximately 0.20 initial non-GAAP 2026 guidance, the estimate assumes favorable geographic profit mix and tax attributes produce a sustainable rate modestly below guidance.
Why this confidence: Recent low reported tax rate ↑, Assumed persistent favorable geographic mix ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Gilead's 2025 effective tax rate was 0.131, demonstrating that its geographic and tax-attribute mix can produce a rate below 0.18.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Initial 2026 company guidance used approximately 0.20 on a non-GAAP basis and 0.21 on a GAAP basis.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%low
How derived: Starting from recurring research spending near 0.20 of revenue, the estimate assumes successful scalable HIV and oncology launches allow rapid growth while retaining 0.22 of after-tax operating profit, with recent acquisitions supplying pipeline assets already funded.
Why this confidence: Existing commercial infrastructure and launched products ↑, Assumed high return on recent acquisitions ↓
Measured by
- Annual Trodelvy sales$1.4Breported
Evidence for
- Yeztugo, Trodelvy, and Livdelzi were already contributing to reported growth, allowing future sales to leverage prior development and launch spending.[Gilead Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Gilead spent $11.3 billion on acquired in-process research and development in the first half of 2026, showing that pipeline replenishment can be capital intensive.[Gilead Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Starting from Biktarvy and Yeztugo protection into 2036-2037, the estimate assumes the company repeatedly refreshes its antiviral and oncology portfolio and sustains long-run nominal growth near mature economic growth.
Why this confidence: Long protection for key HIV assets ↑, Requires perpetual pipeline renewal ↓
Measured by
- Annual product sales excluding Veklury$28Breported
- Annual Biktarvy sales$14Breported
Evidence for
- Biktarvy's expected U.S. generic entry was pushed to April 2036, and Yeztugo has listed U.S. and European patent expirations in 2037.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Gilead warns that successful new products are necessary to offset losses from competition and patent expiry, while payer actions frequently reduce net prices.[Gilead 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating33 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 95% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 7.0% | 3.32 | 155.8% | 1.25B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3% | 1.31 | -22.6% | 1.26B | 1.0% |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8% | 0.57 | -39.9% | 1.26B | 0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0% | 3.16 | -5.0% | 1.25B | 0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 4.4% | 1.94 | 47.4% | 1.25B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 10.2% | 2.76 | 381.4% | 1.24B | -1.0% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is Aswath Damodaran's January 2026 implied U.S. equity risk premium derived from market prices and expected cash flows.
Generated 9/6/2026, 3:12:11 AM · pipeline v1.2.0