GS
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCNYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives GS's base case?
base-case thesisGoldman entered the forecast with strong corporate activity, trading results and rising investment-management fees. The central case allows the cyclical businesses to cool while the growing pool of client assets supplies steadier revenue. Costs remain near their recent relationship to revenue, and a meaningful portion of earnings is retained to support the balance sheet.
What shapes the assumptions
First-half investment-banking revenue increased by roughly one half
Investment-banking revenue
Raises revenue growth
Second-quarter management fees increased by one fifth
Recurring management fees
Raises revenue growth
The 2025 pre-tax profit share was broadly maintained despite higher compensation
Pre-tax profitability
Informs operating margin
Assets under supervision reached about four trillion dollars
Client assets
Lowers reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 17.1% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 3.5% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 61.4% operating margin, against the 37.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 40.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter
This measures revenue from the firm's largest and most cyclical segment, which drives near-term growth and profit sensitivity.
$16B
reported2. Management and other fees, second quarter
This measures recurring asset- and wealth-management revenue that makes total earnings less dependent on trading and transactions.
$3.4B
reported3. Assets under supervision, period end
This measures the client-asset base from which Goldman can earn management, advisory and wealth-management fees.
$4T
reported4. Firmwide efficiency ratio, second quarter
This measures operating expense per unit of revenue, so a lower figure generally translates into a higher share of revenue becoming profit.
57.4%
reported5. Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end
This measures the common-equity cushion supporting risk-weighted assets and therefore constrains balance-sheet growth and shareholder distributions.
12.9%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$66.2B
Diluted shares
304,900,000
Net cash
-$134.6B
Bear
low confidence-$58.52
IV / share
-105.6% vs $1,038.61
- Explicit cash flows
- $83.85
- Terminal value
- $299.19
- Net cash
- -$441.55
- Intrinsic value / share
- -$58.52
Revenue growth-10.0% → 0.0% → 2.0% → 2.5% → 2.5%medium
How derived: The first half of 2026 grew 0.27 year over year, but because that increase was concentrated in cyclical Global Banking & Markets and followed unusually strong trading and investment-banking activity, this case assumes a sharp normalization before subdued growth resumes.
Why this confidence: Long history of revenue cyclicality ↑, Uncertain timing and severity of a capital-markets downturn ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Evidence for
- Goldman Sachs identifies changes in economic activity, market volatility, monetary policy, regulation and client activity as material sources of revenue volatility.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 net revenue increased 0.27 year over year, including a 0.52 increase in investment-banking revenue and a 0.25 increase in market-making revenue.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results]· primary
Operating margin30.0%medium
How derived: Pre-tax earnings were 0.375 of net revenue in 2025, but this case moves the margin toward 0.30 because compensation, transaction costs and credit losses would absorb more revenue in a weaker market.
Why this confidence: Audited expense and pre-tax earnings history ↑, Compensation varies with business mix and revenue ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Firmwide efficiency ratio, second quarter57.4%reported
Evidence for
- The firmwide efficiency ratio deteriorated to 0.644 in 2025 from 0.631 in 2024 as compensation and transaction-based expenses increased.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The second-quarter 2026 efficiency ratio improved to 0.574, while first-half annualized return on common equity reached 0.217.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: The 2025 effective rate was 0.214 after employee-share-award benefits reduced it by 0.028, so this case uses approximately the rate before that unusually large benefit.
Why this confidence: Tax-rate bridge disclosed in the Form 10-K ↑, Future geographic earnings mix and equity-award deductions ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Removing the disclosed 0.028 benefit from employee share-based awards from the 2025 effective rate of 0.214 implies an underlying rate near 0.242.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expected the 2026 annual effective tax rate to be approximately 0.20 because of changes to the taxation of international earnings.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%low
How derived: This rate represents the share of after-tax operating profit retained for regulatory capital and balance-sheet growth, and it is set at 0.55 because the standardized CET1 ratio fell from 0.143 at year-end 2025 to 0.129 in June 2026 while assets and unsecured borrowings expanded.
Why this confidence: Reported CET1 and balance-sheet trajectory ↑, Reinvestment is an estimated bank-capital proxy rather than a directly reported measure ↓
Measured by
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Evidence for
- From year-end 2025 to June 2026, total assets increased from $1.809 trillion to $2.128 trillion and unsecured long-term borrowings increased from $285 billion to $348 billion while the standardized CET1 ratio declined.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Goldman Sachs returned $16.78 billion to common shareholders during 2025, nearly matching its $17.18 billion of net earnings and demonstrating substantial distribution capacity.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%medium
How derived: The rate is held to the Federal Reserve's 0.02 long-run inflation objective, assuming no lasting real growth after the explicit forecast because mature investment-banking revenues remain cyclical.
Why this confidence: Official long-run inflation objective ↑, Terminal assumptions extend indefinitely ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve reaffirmed a 0.02 longer-run inflation objective.[Federal Reserve longer-run goals]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO's 2026 baseline levels imply nominal GDP growth above 0.03 through much of the following decade.[CBO economic outlook 2026–2036]· primary
Base
low confidence$450.46
IV / share
-56.6% vs $1,038.61
- Explicit cash flows
- $174.03
- Terminal value
- $717.98
- Net cash
- -$441.55
- Intrinsic value / share
- $450.46
159.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.0% → 6.0% → 5.5% → 4.5% → 4.0%medium
How derived: Starting from strong first-half 2026 activity, this path assumes normalization to mid-single-digit growth as cyclical banking and trading moderate while management fees and wealth assets continue expanding.
Why this confidence: Growth supported by both transaction activity and recurring fees ↑, Cyclical revenue remains the largest component ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Price implies: 17.1% vs our 5.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management and other fees increased 0.20 year over year in the second quarter of 2026, and total assets under supervision reached approximately $4 trillion.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Goldman Sachs states that conditions can change quickly when policy uncertainty, geopolitical events or technology developments cause market volatility.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
Operating margin37.0%medium
How derived: The target approximately preserves the 2025 pre-tax margin of 0.375 while assuming the exceptional first-half 2026 profitability moderates and OneGS 3.0 offsets normal cost inflation.
Why this confidence: Target anchored to audited full-year pre-tax results ↑, Unquantified OneGS 3.0 savings ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Firmwide efficiency ratio, second quarter57.4%reported
Price implies: 61.4% vs our 37.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Goldman Sachs reported $21.852 billion of pre-tax earnings on $58.283 billion of 2025 net revenue, a derived margin of approximately 0.375.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- Management expects the multi-year OneGS 3.0 initiative to create expense efficiencies and capacity for growth.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 efficiency ratio rose to 0.644 despite higher revenue because compensation and transaction expenses increased.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate21.0%high
How derived: The assumption rounds the 2025 effective rate of 0.214 and stays close to management's approximately 0.20 expectation for 2026 without treating all current tax benefits as permanent.
Why this confidence: Recent reported rate and explicit management guidance ↑, Variability in equity-award tax benefits ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Goldman Sachs reported a 2025 effective tax rate of 0.214 and expected its 2026 annual rate to be approximately 0.20.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Employee share-based award benefits reduced the 2025 effective rate by 0.028, showing that realized tax rates can move materially with deductions.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate42.0%low
How derived: This estimated retention rate balances the capital needed to support mid-single-digit growth and a larger balance sheet against management's shift toward fee-based, capital-light businesses and its demonstrated shareholder distributions.
Why this confidence: Regulatory-capital and balance-sheet disclosures ↑, No directly reported DCF reinvestment measure for a bank ↓
Measured by
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Evidence for
- Total assets expanded to $2.128 trillion by June 2026 and the standardized CET1 ratio was 0.129, requiring continued capital support for balance-sheet growth.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- The firm has doubled more durable revenue and reduced historical principal investments by more than 0.90 since 2020, lowering the capital required for a given level of revenue.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: The rate combines the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective with modest real expansion, while remaining below the nominal economic growth implied by CBO's decade-ahead projections.
Why this confidence: Official inflation and economic projections ↑, Indefinite forecast horizon ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is 0.02, and CBO projects continued real economic expansion over the coming decade.[Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO's nominal GDP projections imply growth closer to the high-0.03 range in the later forecast years, above this assumption.[CBO economic outlook data]· primary
Bull
low confidence$1,103.99
IV / share
+6.3% vs $1,038.61
- Explicit cash flows
- $268.09
- Terminal value
- $1,277.45
- Net cash
- -$441.55
- Intrinsic value / share
- $1,103.99
115.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 6.5% → 5.0%low
How derived: This path assumes the 2026 upswing in transactions and client flows persists while wealth, alternatives and financing businesses continue taking share, with growth gradually fading as the revenue base becomes larger.
Why this confidence: Current banking backlog and client-flow momentum ↑, Assumes a multi-year favorable capital-markets cycle ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 Global Banking & Markets revenue reached $15.52 billion, first-half investment-banking revenue rose 0.52, and the investment-banking backlog increased sequentially.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
- Management targets annual wealth-management long-term fee-based inflows equal to 0.05 of relevant assets and expects alternative management fees to grow at a double-digit rate.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- Management cautions that the path will not be straight and that policy, geopolitical and market conditions can change quickly.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
Operating margin41.0%low
How derived: The target approximates the first-half 2026 pre-tax profitability implied by reported net earnings and the expected tax rate, assuming high revenue keeps the efficiency ratio near its improved recent level.
Why this confidence: Recent reported efficiency and earnings ↑, Peak-period profitability may not persist ↓
Measured by
- Global Banking & Markets revenue, second quarter$16Breported
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Assets under supervision, period end$4Treported
- Firmwide efficiency ratio, second quarter57.4%reported
Evidence for
- The second-quarter efficiency ratio improved to 0.574 and first-half annualized return on common equity reached 0.217.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
- Management raised the medium-term Asset & Wealth Management pre-tax margin target to approximately 0.30 and launched OneGS 3.0 to improve efficiency.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- The full-year efficiency ratio worsened in 2025 because compensation and transaction-based expenses rose with operating performance.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate19.0%low
How derived: The rate is set just below management's approximately 0.20 expectation for 2026, assuming favorable international-tax changes and equity-award deductions continue to offset the statutory burden.
Why this confidence: Management's near-term tax outlook ↑, Assumption is below guidance and depends on recurring tax benefits ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management expected the annual effective tax rate to decline to approximately 0.20 in 2026 because of changes affecting international earnings.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective tax rate was 0.224 in 2024, and the 2025 rate benefited by 0.028 from employee share-based award deductions.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
How derived: The estimated rate falls to 0.30 because the bull case assigns more growth to management fees, wealth and financing franchises that management describes as more durable and capital-light, allowing substantial growth without proportionate equity retention.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated capital distributions and capital-light mix shift ↑, High forecast growth may require more capital than assumed ↓
Measured by
- Management and other fees, second quarter$3.4Breported
- Standardized CET1 capital ratio, period end12.9%reported
Evidence for
- More durable Asset & Wealth Management revenue grew at a 0.12 compound annual rate from 2021 through 2025, while historical principal investments were reduced by more than 0.90.[Goldman Sachs 2025 annual report]· primary
- Goldman Sachs distributed $16.78 billion to common shareholders in 2025 while maintaining year-end standardized and advanced CET1 ratios of 0.143 and 0.151.[Goldman Sachs 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- By June 2026 the standardized CET1 ratio had fallen to 0.129 as total assets expanded, limiting how far retention can fall if balance-sheet growth remains rapid.[Goldman Sachs 2026 Q2 results presentation]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes Goldman retains modest real growth above the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective through market-share gains, but remains below CBO's projected nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Rate remains below projected nominal economic growth ↑, Permanent market-share gains are uncertain ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- CBO's projected nominal GDP levels imply growth above 0.03 in the later years of its 2026–2036 baseline.[CBO economic outlook data]· primary
Evidence against
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is only 0.02, so maintaining 0.03 indefinitely requires sustained real growth or market-share gains.[Federal Reserve longer-run goals]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating40 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 159% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The bear-to-bull range spans 258% of the base value — the outcome is highly uncertain.→ scenarios
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 7.5% | -116.46 | -53.8% | 330.8M | -3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | 6.0% | -116.27 | -38.3% | 324.5M | -4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | 14.5% | 16.32 | -1.8% | 318.3M | -5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 19.6% | 6.74 | 105.8% | 315M | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 14.4% | -105.3 | 9.4% | 308M | -5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 39.5% | 18.38 | 12.6% | 304.9M | -4.2% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year constant-maturity par yield for September 4, 2026, the latest market day before the valuation date.
The value is the published five-year market beta for Goldman Sachs as of the latest available trading date and is used as the equity-sensitivity estimate.
The value is the July 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month implied premium based on adjusted cash distributions for the U.S. equity market.
The value is Goldman Sachs' September 4, 2026 closing share price, the latest completed market session before the valuation date.
Generated 9/5/2026, 5:59:51 PM · pipeline v1.2.0