HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Aug 23, 2026
What drives HOOD's base case?
base-case thesisRecent quarterly growth and record customer deposits show continued momentum beyond the earlier trading boom. The base case assumes newer products and subscriptions broaden the revenue mix, while market sensitivity causes growth to slow over five years. Efficiency gains support a healthy but not extreme profit margin.
What shapes the assumptions
Record customer deposits and Gold adoption
Revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Broader product mix
Revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Scale efficiencies
Operating margin
Raises operating margin
Product development and compliance spending
Operating margin
Lowers operating margin
Platform expansion
Cash reinvestment
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 97.9% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 25.9% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How much of this is timing?
- The price has risen 31.1% since this valuation was struck on 2026-08-23, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 46.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$4.9B
Diluted shares
912,000,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$5.93
IV / share
-95.2% vs $124.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $2.54
- Terminal value
- $3.39
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $5.93
57.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 6.0% → 4.0%medium
How derived: Recent quarterly growth remains strong, but the sharp historical swings and reliance on trading activity justify a rapid normalization toward low single-digit growth.
Why this confidence: Recent quarterly growth ↑, Large historical revenue swings ↓, Dependence on trading activity and market conditions ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue and continued growth across several business lines.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood identifies quarter-to-quarter volatility, reliance on transaction revenue, interest-rate sensitivity, regulation, and competition as material risks.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Operating margin22.0%medium
How derived: The company is realizing operating leverage and cost efficiencies, but the bear case assumes new-product investment, regulation, and revenue cyclicality prevent margins from reaching the higher end of fintech profitability.
Why this confidence: Management-reported efficiency gains ↑, New-business investment requirements ↓, Uncertain long-run cost structure ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood lowered and tightened its 2026 adjusted operating expense and stock-based compensation outlook to reflect captured efficiencies.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood warns that expansion, new products, regulatory obligations, competition, and technology risks can increase costs and reduce profitability.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Tax rate24.0%low
How derived: The rate is set near a normalized U.S. corporate cash-tax burden, with a conservative premium for geographic mix, deferred-tax variability, and the possibility that tax benefits become less available as profitability rises.
Why this confidence: Normalized statutory-rate framework ↑, Uncertain future tax attributes and discrete items ↓, Limited tax detail in the supplied historical actuals ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood operates as a regulated financial-services company with U.S. and international operations and reports income-tax effects in its financial statements.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Actual effective tax rates can differ materially from statutory rates because of valuation allowances, stock compensation, jurisdictional mix, and discrete tax items.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate35.0%medium
How derived: A high reinvestment share is appropriate because the company is expanding into multiple products and geographies while still needing technology, compliance, and customer-acquisition investment.
Why this confidence: Visible product and geographic expansion ↑, Large cash and investment balance ↓, Reinvestment is not directly disclosed as a single operating metric ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood describes continuing product launches, geographic expansion, and investment in new businesses as part of its strategy.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood has captured operating efficiencies and has substantial cash and investments that can fund growth without proportionate operating reinvestment.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: A low mature-growth rate reflects a financial platform that may compound with the economy but faces permanent competition, regulation, and market-cycle constraints.
Why this confidence: Broadening product platform ↑, Long forecast horizon ↓, Highly cyclical and regulated industry ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood continues expanding its platform across brokerage, crypto, advisory, digital banking, and private-market products.[Robinhood Investor Relations]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood states that competition, regulation, market conditions, and transaction-revenue volatility could cause declining or negative growth.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Base
low confidence$10.24
IV / share
-91.8% vs $124.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $4.04
- Terminal value
- $6.20
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $10.24
60.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth20.0% → 17.0% → 14.0% → 11.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: The recent quarterly growth trend and expanding product platform support continued above-market growth, while the historical boom-and-bust pattern argues for gradual moderation toward high single digits.
Why this confidence: Recent double-digit quarterly growth ↑, Multiple revenue streams and business lines ↑, Historical cyclicality ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Price implies: 97.9% vs our 14.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Robinhood reported second-quarter 2026 revenue growth of 32% and record net deposits and Gold subscribers.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood says financial results and key metrics fluctuate quarter to quarter and that the company relies materially on transaction-based revenue and changing market conditions.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Operating margin27.0%medium
How derived: Reported efficiency gains and scale support a material margin expansion, but the base case reserves room for continuing product, compliance, and customer-acquisition costs.
Why this confidence: Management-reported cost efficiencies ↑, Scale across growing business lines ↑, Ongoing investment cycle ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management lowered its 2026 adjusted operating expense outlook because of efficiencies captured in the business.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- The company identifies expansion, competition, regulatory costs, and product development as risks to future profitability.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate23.0%low
How derived: The base case uses a normalized tax rate modestly below the headline U.S. corporate rate to reflect a mix of deductions, credits, and international operations without assuming unusually large tax benefits.
Why this confidence: Normalized long-run tax approach ↑, Tax-rate volatility from discrete items ↓, Limited standalone tax guidance ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood reports domestic and international operations and provides tax disclosures that support using a normalized rather than purely statutory rate.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Reported effective tax rates may vary because of stock compensation, valuation allowances, discrete items, and changes in profitability.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%medium
How derived: The base case assumes roughly one-third of after-tax operating earnings is reinvested to support the company's expanding product range while allowing scale efficiencies to convert more earnings into cash.
Why this confidence: Explicit product expansion ↑, Operating leverage ↓, No directly reported reinvestment ratio ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood continues introducing products and expanding geographically, which requires ongoing technology, compliance, and operating investment.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood reported captured efficiencies and holds substantial cash and investments, reducing the need for a very high reinvestment assumption.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The base case assumes mature growth slightly above broad economic growth because Robinhood is still broadening its platform, but keeps the rate below its current expansion pace.
Why this confidence: Platform diversification ↑, Mature-industry competition ↓, Terminal assumptions are inherently sensitive ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood describes itself as a global financial-services platform spanning brokerage, crypto, advisory, digital banking, and private markets.[Robinhood Investor Relations]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood warns that competition, regulation, market conditions, and transaction-revenue volatility can reduce long-run growth.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Bull
low confidence$17.13
IV / share
-86.3% vs $124.72
- Explicit cash flows
- $6.22
- Terminal value
- $10.90
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $17.13
63.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth28.0% → 24.0% → 20.0% → 16.0% → 12.0%low
How derived: Record recent growth, customer deposits, Gold adoption, and rapid expansion into new business lines support sustained high growth before a gradual moderation from an unusually strong starting point.
Why this confidence: Record deposits and product breadth ↑, Strong recent quarterly growth ↑, High sensitivity to market activity and regulation ↓, Long forecast horizon ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood reported record second-quarter revenue, record net deposits, record Gold subscribers, and up to 13 business lines with at least $100 million of annualized revenue.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood reports that crypto transaction revenue can decline, while market volatility, regulation, competition, and reliance on transaction-based revenue remain material risks.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Operating margin32.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes strong revenue growth converts into substantial operating leverage as fixed platform costs spread across a larger customer and product base, with efficiency gains outweighing expansion costs.
Why this confidence: Operating leverage from scale ↑, Management-reported efficiencies ↑, Expansion and compliance costs ↓, High margin assumption relative to current maturity ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood reported captured efficiencies, record revenue, and growth across multiple high-volume products and business lines.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood says it must continue investing in new products, technologies, geographies, compliance, and risk management, which may limit margin expansion.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes a normalized rate close to the U.S. federal corporate rate as scale, deductions, and international operations reduce the effective burden without relying on exceptional tax benefits.
Why this confidence: Scale and normalized profitability ↑, Potential tax benefits from deductions and mix ↑, Future tax treatment remains uncertain ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood has international operations and multiple business lines that can create deductions and jurisdictional mix benefits.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Future effective taxes may be higher than the assumed rate because tax attributes, stock compensation, and jurisdictional effects can change as profits grow.[Robinhood 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate25.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes new products become increasingly self-funding, so reinvestment falls as a share of after-tax operating earnings even though absolute investment continues to rise.
Why this confidence: Captured operating efficiencies ↑, Growing revenue base can absorb fixed investment ↑, Expansion may require sustained investment ↓, Reinvestment is not directly disclosed ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood has captured efficiencies while growing revenue and expanding the number of meaningful business lines.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Robinhood states that continuing product, geographic, technology, compliance, and risk-management expansion requires additional investment.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes Robinhood becomes a diversified global financial platform capable of modestly exceeding mature economic growth, while remaining below its high-growth phase.
Why this confidence: Diversified platform and global expansion ↑, Multiple emerging product categories ↑, Terminal growth is highly sensitive to competition and regulation ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Robinhood's stated platform spans brokerage, crypto, advisory, digital banking, and private markets, with ongoing geographic and product expansion.[Robinhood Investor Relations]· primary
Evidence against
- The company warns that competition, regulation, market cycles, and transaction-based revenue exposure can constrain long-run growth.[Robinhood Q2 2026 Results Risk Factors]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating46 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The tax rate assumption is low-confidence.→ tax rate
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 36.4% | — | — | 905.54M | 1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 50.0% | — | — | 909.24M | 1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | 45.0% | — | — | 909M | 0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 100.0% | — | — | 917.94M | 1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 15.1% | — | — | 915.04M | 0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | 32.3% | — | — | 912M | 0.3% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year U.S. Treasury par yield on August 20, 2026 was 0.0520, used as the long-term risk-free rate.
The reported HOOD beta was 2.32 at the latest available market-data snapshot, reflecting materially higher share-price sensitivity than the broad market.
The July 2026 U.S. mature-market equity risk premium was 0.0420 after adjusting the implied premium for the sovereign default spread.
The latest reported HOOD closing share price on August 21, 2026 was 95.11 dollars per share.
Generated 8/23/2026, 11:40:37 AM · pipeline v1.1.0