HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise CoNYSE
View company geography

Valuation snapshot

Above bull case

Price is above even the bull case.

Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 3, 2026

$54.44
price
$25.73
base IV/share
Track record
$13.3B
Net debt

From reported financials.

What drives HPE's base case?

base-case thesis

HPE just delivered record quarterly revenue and profit, driven by AI systems and its newly combined networking business (post-Juniper), and management raised both its FY2026 and FY2027 outlooks on the back of record order backlog. This case assumes those raised targets are basically achievable: strong growth in the near term, tapering over five years back toward the low-to-mid single-digit growth the core hardware business showed in FY2022-FY2024. Profitability improves gradually toward management's own 14-15% margin target as the higher-margin networking business grows into a larger share of the mix, while tax and reinvestment assumptions are taken directly from the company's own guidance.

What shapes the assumptions

  • Management's own FY2027 guidance of 13-17% revenue growth

    Guided revenue growth

    Raises revenue growth

  • Pre-AI-boom organic growth was only 2-3% per year (FY2022-FY2024)

    Historical annual revenue growth

    Lowers revenue growth

  • Guided FY2027 non-GAAP operating margin of 14-15%

    Company operating margin guidance

    Raises operating margin

  • Company's own 14% projected non-GAAP tax rate guidance

    Effective tax rate guidance

    Informs tax rate

  • Networking segment margin expansion post-Juniper (22.0% in Q3 FY26)

    Segment operating margin mix shift

    Raises operating margin

Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.

Why the gap?

The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 24.0% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 8.7% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.

What else could explain it?
How much of this is timing?
The price has risen 5.0% since this valuation was struck on 2026-09-03, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
Or, holding growth steady
the price is also consistent with a 21.9% operating margin, against the 12.0% assumed here.
How confident is this estimate?
Robustness 52.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
What would change the answer?
Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.

Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out

Research & assumptions

Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.

Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.

Company value drivers

Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.

1. Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterly

Quarterly revenue from HPE's combined Server, Hybrid Cloud, and Financial Services segment (renamed Cloud & AI in FY2026), the primary engine of HPE's current growth story.

$9B

reported
Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterlyRevenue forecastTotal revenue forecast → IV (up)Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterlyOperating profitConsolidated operating margin → IV (mixed)
HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results

2. Networking segment revenue, quarterly

Revenue from HPE's Networking segment (Aruba plus Juniper Networks since July 2025), tracking the success of the Juniper acquisition and networking cross-sell.

$2.9B

reported
Networking segment revenue, quarterlyRevenue forecastTotal revenue forecast → IV (up)Networking segment revenue, quarterlyOperating profitConsolidated operating margin → IV (up)
HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results

3. Networking segment operating margin, quarterly

Operating margin of the Networking segment, a bellwether for whether Juniper integration synergies are lifting HPE's overall profitability mix.

22.0%

reported
Networking segment operating margin, quarterlyOperating profitConsolidated operating margin → IV (up)
HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results

4. AI Systems order backlog, quarterly, $

The dollar backlog of booked-but-undelivered AI systems orders, a leading indicator of future Cloud & AI segment revenue.

$6.8B

reported
AI Systems order backlog, quarterly, $Revenue forecastNear-term revenue forecast → IV (up)AI Systems order backlog, quarterly, $Free cash flowWorking capital investment → IV (up)
HPE Q3 FY26 Revenue Jumps 34% to $12.2 Billion as AI Orders Hit Record $3.1 Billion and Backlog Reaches $7.6 Billion

5. Projected non-GAAP effective tax rate, annual guidance

HPE's own disclosed forward-looking non-GAAP tax rate assumption, the most direct company guidance input into the DCF's tax-rate assumption.

14.0%

reported
Projected non-GAAP effective tax rate, annual guidanceAfter-tax profitUnlevered free cash flow / NOPAT → IV (down)
HPE Q1 FY26 8-K

Base inputs from financials

source period →

Base revenue (TTM)

$41.9B

Diluted shares

1,449,000,000

Net cash

-$13.3B

Bear

low confidence

$9.31

IV / share

-82.9% vs $54.44

Enterprise

$26.8B

Equity

$13.5B

Discount rate

9.8%

Cost of equity

11.2%

Where the value comes from

Explicit cash flows
$5.70
Terminal value
$12.76
Net cash
-$9.15
Intrinsic value / share
$9.31

137.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.

Revenue growth8.0% → 4.0% → 2.0% → 2.0% → 1.5%medium

How derived: Starting from TTM revenue of $41.9B (already inflated by the AI-server surge) and management's FY2027 guide of 13-17% growth, the bear case assumes delivery falls well below guidance because AI systems demand is order-book-driven and lumpy, so growth decays quickly from 8% toward ~1.5-2% as the AI upgrade cycle normalizes and Dell/Lenovo pricing pressure intensifies, echoing HPE's own -16.2% (FY2017) and -7.4% (FY2020) growth reversals.

Why this confidence: Only ~1 quarter of Juniper-combined data exists to validate a 5-year deceleration path , HPE's own history includes two double-digit revenue declines within the past decade , Management guidance has trended upward for three consecutive quarters, cutting against the bear thesis

Evidence for

Evidence against

  • HPE raised FY2026 revenue growth guidance to 34-37% and FY2027 growth guidance to 13-17%, with orders growing 42% YoY and a record backlog, contradicting a growth-collapse scenario.[HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results]· primary
Operating margin10.0%low

How derived: GAAP company operating margin was negative in Q2 FY26 (-14.5%) and only recovered to 11.4% in Q3 FY26 after absorbing Juniper integration costs; the bear case assumes GAAP margin stalls near 10% as thin/negative AI-server hardware economics offset the Networking segment's stronger 22.0% margin.

Why this confidence: Segment margin data only exists for 2-3 quarters post-Juniper close , The GAAP/non-GAAP gap (stock comp, deal amortization) is a known, quantifiable drag , Company is actively guiding margin higher each quarter, a contrary signal to the bear thesis

Evidence for

Evidence against

  • HPE guided FY2027 non-GAAP operating margin to 14%-15%, well above the bear case's 10% GAAP-basis assumption.[HPE Q3 FY26 8-K]· primary
Tax rate17.0%medium

How derived: HPE guided a 14% non-GAAP tax rate for FY2026 (down from 15% in FY2025); the bear case assumes a higher 17% rate as OECD Pillar Two global minimum tax phases in across HPE's footprint and the one-time $402M of Juniper merger-related tax benefits that flattered FY2025 do not recur.

Why this confidence: Company provides explicit forward tax-rate guidance each year , One-off merger tax items make the FY2025 base rate hard to normalize , Global minimum tax phase-in creates forward uncertainty not yet reflected in guidance

Evidence for

  • HPE's FY2025 effective tax rate of 120% (a net benefit) was driven by one-time items including $402M of Juniper merger-related tax benefits that will not repeat.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary

Evidence against

  • HPE guided a FY2026 projected non-GAAP tax rate of just 14%, below FY2025's 15%, indicating a declining, not rising, trend.[HPE Q1 FY26 8-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate45.0%low

How derived: AI systems revenue growth (Server revenue +32.7% YoY in Q2 FY26, +35% in Q3 FY26) requires heavy working-capital investment in GPU/accelerator inventory ahead of revenue recognition, and HPE's post-Juniper leverage ($19.48B debt vs. $6.2B cash) limits self-funding capacity; the bear case assumes reinvestment consumes 45% of NOPAT even as growth decelerates, signaling falling capital efficiency.

Why this confidence: No precise HPE capex or working-capital figure was directly verified from the 10-K cash flow statement in this research pass , Debt and cash levels are directly reported balance-sheet figures , Only one fiscal year of post-Juniper data exists to establish a trend

Evidence for

  • HPE carries $19.48B of debt against $6.2B of cash and investments, a leveraged post-Juniper balance sheet that constrains reinvestment flexibility.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary
  • Server-related segment margins remained negative/thin even as revenue surged, implying more capital is needed per dollar of incremental growth.[HPE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary

Evidence against

Terminal growth2.0%medium

How derived: HPE operates in mature, competitive server/storage/networking hardware markets; the bear case sets terminal growth at 2%, in line with long-run US inflation/GDP expectations and below the 4.79% risk-free rate, reflecting a view that HPE settles into a commoditized hardware vendor role losing share to Dell and Lenovo once the current AI upgrade cycle matures.

Why this confidence: Terminal growth is a stylized long-run assumption, inherently low-precision over an infinite horizon , Grounded in observable macro anchors (risk-free rate, GDP trend) rather than company-specific guesswork

No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.

Evidence for

  • HPE's revenue was flat-to-declining for much of 2017-2020 (including a -16.2% and a -7.4% year), showing the hardware business can stagnate for years at a time.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary

Evidence against

Base

low confidence

$25.73

IV / share

-52.7% vs $54.44

Enterprise

$50.6B

Equity

$37.3B

Discount rate

9.9%

Cost of equity

11.2%

Where the value comes from

Explicit cash flows
$9.75
Terminal value
$25.14
Net cash
-$9.15
Intrinsic value / share
$25.73

97.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.

Revenue growth15.0% → 10.0% → 7.0% → 5.5% → 4.5%medium

How derived: Anchored directly to management's FY2027 guidance of 13-17% revenue growth (midpoint 15%) issued alongside Q3 FY26 results, the base case takes that guided first year at face value and tapers growth over years 2-5 toward a mature single-digit pace, consistent with HPE's FY2022-FY2024 organic growth of 2-3% before the AI/Juniper inflection.

Why this confidence: Directly grounded in HPE's own most recent, raised guidance , 5-year path extrapolates well beyond the 1-year window management has actually committed to

Price implies: 24.0% vs our 8.4% — one of several sets that fit this price

Evidence for

Evidence against

  • HPE's organic revenue grew just 2-3% per year in FY2022-FY2024 before the AI/Juniper inflection, suggesting the current growth rate may not be structurally sustainable at a high level for 5 years.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary
Operating margin12.0%medium

How derived: Management guided FY2027 non-GAAP operating margin of 14%-15%; translating to a GAAP-equivalent basis (typically 200-300bp lower once stock comp and Juniper-related amortization/restructuring are included, consistent with the -14.5% to +11.4% GAAP swing seen across Q2-Q3 FY26) implies a base-case GAAP target of roughly 12% as integration costs fade and the 22.0% Networking segment margin increasingly offsets thinner AI server margins.

Why this confidence: Directly triangulated from company's own non-GAAP margin guidance , GAAP/non-GAAP bridge is estimated rather than directly disclosed by HPE for FY2027

Price implies: 21.9% vs our 12.0% — one of several sets that fit this price

Evidence for

Evidence against

Tax rate14.0%high

How derived: Taken directly from HPE's own disclosed FY2026 projected non-GAAP effective tax rate of 14%, held flat through the forecast per the company's stated three-year tax planning assumption absent further acquisitions.

Why this confidence: Directly sourced from company's own explicit multi-year guidance , GAAP effective tax rate has shown large one-off swings that a flat 14% doesn't capture

Evidence for

  • HPE disclosed a projected non-GAAP income tax rate of 14% for fiscal 2026, based on a three-year financial projection assuming no incremental acquisitions.[HPE Q1 FY26 8-K]· primary

Evidence against

  • HPE's actual GAAP effective tax rate has been extremely volatile (120% benefit in FY2025, 12.7% in FY2024) due to discrete items, so the 14% non-GAAP guide may not hold on a GAAP basis.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate35.0%low

How derived: HPE raised its FY2026 free cash flow guidance to at least $3.75 billion while guiding continued double-digit revenue growth; funding that FCF alongside growth implies roughly a third of NOPAT being reinvested in capex and working capital to support the AI systems backlog and Juniper integration, in line with HPE's historically asset-light (GreenLake-financed) capital intensity.

Why this confidence: Derived indirectly from FCF guidance rather than a directly reported capex/NOPAT ratio , HPE's GreenLake-as-a-service model is a known, disclosed capital-intensity mitigant

Evidence for

Evidence against

  • No precise HPE capex or net-working-capital dollar figure was directly confirmed from the FY2025 10-K cash flow statement in this research, so the 35% estimate carries meaningful uncertainty.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· estimate
Terminal growth2.5%medium

How derived: Set at 2.5%, in line with long-run US nominal GDP growth expectations and below the 4.79% risk-free rate (satisfying the standard constraint that terminal growth not exceed the economy's long-run growth rate), reflecting a view that HPE grows roughly in line with the broader IT infrastructure market once the current AI buildout cycle matures.

Why this confidence: Anchored to observable macro data (risk-free rate, GDP growth norms) , Terminal-year assumptions are inherently the least certain part of any DCF

No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.

Evidence for

  • HPE's revenue over FY2021-FY2024 grew at a compound rate broadly consistent with low-to-mid single digits outside the FY2025 Juniper-boosted year.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary

Evidence against

Bull

low confidence

$47.82

IV / share

-12.2% vs $54.44

Enterprise

$82.5B

Equity

$69.3B

Discount rate

9.9%

Cost of equity

11.2%

Where the value comes from

Explicit cash flows
$14.75
Terminal value
$42.22
Net cash
-$9.15
Intrinsic value / share
$47.82

88.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.

Revenue growth20.0% → 15.0% → 10.0% → 7.0% → 5.0%medium

How derived: The bull case assumes HPE beats its own FY2027 guidance range (13-17%) the way it beat its FY2026 guidance every quarter this year (raising FY2026 growth guidance from 29-33% to 34-37% after Q3), because AI systems orders (+42% YoY in Q3 FY26) and record backlog are outpacing revenue recognition, implying multiple quarters of above-guide growth before demand normalizes toward a still-healthy mid-single-digit pace by year five.

Why this confidence: Grounded in an actual, repeated pattern of guidance beats-and-raises this fiscal year , Extrapolating a beat-and-raise pattern 5 years forward is inherently speculative

Evidence for

Evidence against

Operating margin14.5%low

How derived: The bull case assumes HPE achieves the top end of its guided 14-15% FY2027 non-GAAP operating margin range on essentially a GAAP basis too, as Juniper integration/restructuring costs (the main driver of the -14.5% GAAP margin quarter in Q2 FY26) fully roll off and Networking segment margin (already 22.0% in Q3 FY26) continues to pull the blended margin up faster than AI server hardware dilutes it.

Why this confidence: Assumes GAAP margin converges fully to non-GAAP guidance, which HPE has not itself projected , Recent segment-level margin trend (Networking) directionally supports the thesis

Evidence for

Evidence against

Tax rate12.0%low

How derived: The bull case assumes a rate below HPE's own 14% FY2026 non-GAAP guidance, reflecting continued favorable tax benefits from the Juniper integration (which already generated $402M of net merger-related tax benefits in FY2025) and further tax planning upside as international mix shifts.

Why this confidence: No company guidance supports a rate below 14%, so this is an extrapolation beyond disclosed guidance , Grounded in a real, disclosed one-time tax benefit from the merger

Evidence for

  • HPE recorded $402 million of net income tax benefits related to Juniper merger integration transactions in FY2025.[HPE FY2025 10-K]· primary

Evidence against

  • HPE's own forward guidance is 14%, not 12%, and explicitly assumes no incremental acquisitions when setting that rate, giving no disclosed basis for a further reduction.[HPE Q1 FY26 8-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate28.0%low

How derived: The bull case assumes reinvestment intensity falls as Juniper cost synergies and HPE's asset-light GreenLake financing model reduce capital needed per dollar of growth, consistent with HPE raising FY2026 free cash flow guidance to at least $3.75 billion even as revenue growth guidance was also raised, indicating growth and cash generation are becoming less capital-hungry together rather than trading off.

Why this confidence: No directly reported capex-to-NOPAT figure was available to verify this estimate , Simultaneous FCF and revenue guidance raises is a real, disclosed data point supporting lower capital intensity

Evidence for

Evidence against

Terminal growth3.0%low

How derived: The bull case sets terminal growth at 3%, still below the 4.79% risk-free rate but above the base case, reflecting durable structural demand for AI infrastructure and a permanently larger, faster-growing networking franchise post-Juniper (74.9%-148.2% YoY growth in its first combined quarters) that lifts HPE's long-run blended growth above pure GDP trend.

Why this confidence: Terminal growth above GDP trend for a hardware-heavy company is aggressive and hard to defend over an infinite horizon , Networking segment's early growth and margin trend both support a structurally improved long-run mix

No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Valuation robustness

reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating

52 / 100 · Moderate

Scenario dispersion2.5
Terminal-value dependency0.2
Historical stability8.3
Margin predictability6.3
Forecast visibility6.2
Evidence quality10

Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.

Quality checks

Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.

  • 98% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.terminal growth
  • The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.reinvestment

Per-share economics

Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.

PeriodRevenue growthFCF/shareFCF/share growthSharesShare growth
Q1 202516.3%-0.65-44.8%1.41B7.1%
Q2 20255.9%-0.76-289.5%1.32B-0.2%
Q3 202518.5%0.5111.8%1.42B6.7%
Q1 202618.4%0.45168.9%1.36B-3.8%
Q2 202640.0%0.58175.7%1.43B8.3%
Q3 202633.7%0.6220.5%1.45B2.0%

Valuation history every run

Sep 3, 2026Bear$9.31Bull$47.82Base$25.73Price$48.40
$2.98$16.53$30.08$43.64$57.19Aug 23, 2026Sep 3, 2026

Why intrinsic value changed

Previous base IV/share+$24.65
Base revenue (new financial data)+$2.80
Diluted shares (new financial data)-$0.32
Net cash (new financial data)+$1.33
Revenue forecast (operating evidence change)+$0.63
Why

Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterly moved from an unreported prior value to $9.0B, as reported in HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results.

Tax-rate assumption (operating evidence change)+$3.39
Why

Projected non-GAAP effective tax rate, annual guidance moved from an unreported prior value to 14.0%, as reported in HPE Q1 FY26 8-K.

Discount rate (macro assumption)-$6.75
Current base IV/share+$25.73

Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled

Material event timeline

Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterly changed to $9.0Bother

9/2/2026

Cloud & AI segment revenue, quarterly moved from an unreported prior value to $9.0B, as reported in HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results.

HPE reports fiscal 2026 third quarter results
Projected non-GAAP effective tax rate, annual guidance changed to 14.0%filing

3/9/2026

Projected non-GAAP effective tax rate, annual guidance moved from an unreported prior value to 14.0%, as reported in HPE Q1 FY26 8-K.

HPE Q1 FY26 8-K

Market inputs researched

Risk-free rate

US 10-year Treasury note yield as of September 2, 2026, used as the risk-free rate anchor for both the cost of equity and cost of debt build.

4.8%
high
Beta

HPE's 5-year monthly regression beta against the broad market as reported by Yahoo Finance, reflecting HPE's above-market volatility as a hardware/capex-cycle name.

1.44
medium
Equity risk premium

Aswath Damodaran's forward-looking, market-implied US equity risk premium as of the July 2026 data update, used as the standard academic/practitioner ERP benchmark.

4.5%
medium
Share price

HPE common stock intraday price as of September 3, 2026, reflecting a post-Q3-earnings pullback despite the reported beat and raised guidance.

48.4
medium
Cost of debt

Reasoned as the 10-year Treasury yield (4.79%) plus an approximately 100-110bp credit spread appropriate for HPE's Baa2 (Moody's) / BBB (S&P) investment-grade rating, consistent with investment-grade corporate spreads running roughly 77-100bp over Treasuries in 2026.

5.9%
medium
Researched byClaude Sonnet 5
Why the model matters →

Generated 9/3/2026, 2:59:09 PM · pipeline v1.2.0