IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives IBKR's base case?
base-case thesisCustomer accounts, client assets, and trades all grew by more than thirty percent in the latest reported quarter. Commission and interest income also grew together, reducing reliance on a single source of progress. This case expects those advantages to persist but steadily moderate as the company becomes larger.
What shapes the assumptions
Broad customer acquisition
Quarter-end accounts rose from 2.92 million in 2024 to 5.19 million in 2026
Raises revenue growth
Growing client assets
Second-quarter client equity rose from $497.2 billion in 2024 to $930.3 billion in 2026
Raises revenue growth
Stable trading engagement
Annualized cleared trades per account were 207 versus 206 a year earlier
Informs revenue growth
Demonstrated scale benefits
Adjusted pretax profitability rose from 73% in 2024 to 77% in 2026
Raises operating margin
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 25.1% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 12.8% a year — so the price assumes more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 88.6% operating margin, against the 60.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 47.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Client accounts, second-quarter end
Funded account scale expands the potential base for commissions, interest income, and service fees.
5,185,000
reported2. Client equity, second-quarter end
Client assets indicate platform scale and influence trading, securities lending, and interest-earning balances.
$930B
reported3. Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average
Daily revenue trades measure customer activity and directly shape commission and transaction-related revenue.
4,824,000
reported4. Client margin loans, second-quarter end
Margin-loan balances are a major interest-earning asset and also indicate the capital and risk capacity needed for growth.
$109B
reported5. Adjusted pretax margin, second quarter
This rate measures how effectively IBKR converts net revenue into profit before tax and captures the platform's operating leverage.
77.0%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$2.7B
Diluted shares
450,088,032
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$44.61
IV / share
-52.0% vs $92.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $13.62
- Terminal value
- $31.00
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $44.61
69.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.72 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.0% → 8.0% → 7.0% → 6.0%medium
How derived: Revenue recently grew rapidly, but this path assumes account growth cools, trading per account weakens, and lower benchmark rates slow the net-interest contribution.
Why this confidence: Two years of comparable quarterly operating metrics ↑, Trading activity and interest rates are cyclical ↓, Five-year forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Evidence for
- In August 2026, client accounts rose 0.35 year over year while DARTs rose only 0.23, indicating that new accounts need not produce proportionate trading revenue.[IBKR August 2026 brokerage metrics]· primary
- The company states that revenue and profitability depend on trading volume and interest-rate levels and are difficult to predict.[IBKR 2026 prospectus supplement]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 customer accounts, customer equity, and DARTs increased 0.34, 0.40, and 0.36 year over year, respectively.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%medium
How derived: The adjusted pretax margin reached 0.77 in the latest quarter, but this case allows weaker activity, higher regulatory costs, and continued infrastructure spending to reduce it to 0.72.
Why this confidence: Company-reported quarterly margin history ↑, Revenue mix changes with rates and trading activity ↓
Clamped from 72.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Adjusted pretax margin, second quarter77.0%reported
Evidence for
- Execution, clearing, and distribution fees increased 0.22 in the second quarter of 2026, partly because of a higher SEC transaction fee.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Adjusted pretax margin increased to 0.77 from 0.75 while adjusted revenue rose 0.27, demonstrating substantial operating leverage.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate11.0%low
How derived: The latest consolidated quarterly tax burden was about 0.081 of pretax income, but this case raises it to 0.11 as IBG Inc.'s ownership rises and more income is earned in minimum-tax jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Tax expense is directly reported ↑, Up-C ownership and noncontrolling-interest structure ↓, Future jurisdictional mix is uncertain ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- IBKR reported that its 2025 tax expense rose partly because of higher European tax rates and IBG Inc.'s increasing ownership of IBG LLC.[IBKR 2025 annual report]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 income-tax expense of $118 million on $1.46 billion of pretax income implies a consolidated rate near 0.081.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate14.0%low
How derived: Although six-month capital expenditures were only $44 million, this case retains 0.14 of after-tax operating profit because regulatory capital, cybersecurity, and capacity needs remain material as client balances expand.
Why this confidence: Capital expenditures and their purposes are disclosed ↑, Broker regulatory capital is not captured by capital expenditure alone ↓
Measured by
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Evidence for
- Six-month capital expenditures increased to $44 million from $30 million and remain focused on technology, capacity, cybersecurity, and regulatory requirements.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The business generated $2.509 billion of net income during the first half of 2026, making reported capital expenditure small relative to earnings.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The rate matches the Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective and assumes mature IBKR revenue merely keeps pace with prices after current account expansion fades.
Why this confidence: Anchored to an official long-run inflation objective ↑, Terminal period is far beyond available company guidance ↓
Measured by
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve reaffirmed a 0.02 longer-run inflation objective.[Federal Reserve July 2026 Monetary Policy Report]· primary
Evidence against
- IBKR was still adding accounts at 0.34 year over year in the second quarter of 2026, which could support growth above inflation for longer.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Base
low confidence$62.97
IV / share
-32.3% vs $92.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $17.19
- Terminal value
- $45.78
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $62.97
72.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.77 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth20.0% → 17.0% → 14.0% → 12.0% → 10.0%medium
How derived: The path starts below the latest quarterly growth but reflects 0.34 account growth, 0.40 client-equity growth, and balanced contributions from commissions and net interest before gradually normalizing.
Why this confidence: Multiple reported growth drivers agree ↑, Interest rates and trading volumes remain unpredictable ↓, No quantitative five-year management guidance ↓
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Price implies: 25.1% vs our 14.6% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Second-quarter commission revenue increased 0.30 and net interest income increased 0.23, showing that both major revenue engines contributed.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
- Second-quarter accounts and client equity increased 0.34 and 0.40 year over year.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- IBKR estimates that a 0.25% decline in US and relevant non-US benchmark rates would reduce annualized net interest income by approximately $119 million.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%medium
How derived: The assumption holds the latest adjusted pretax margin of 0.77 as automation and scale offset continuing technology, compensation, clearing, and regulatory costs.
Why this confidence: Three comparable second-quarter observations ↑, Cyclical revenue mix ↓
Clamped from 77.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Adjusted pretax margin, second quarter77.0%reported
Price implies: 88.6% vs our 60.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Adjusted pretax margin improved from 0.73 in the second quarter of 2024 to 0.75 in 2025 and 0.77 in 2026.[IBKR 2Q26 and comparative results]· primary
Evidence against
- Execution, clearing, and distribution fees increased 0.22 and first-half capital expenditures increased 0.47.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate9.0%low
How derived: A 0.09 rate approximates recent consolidated results, including about 0.089 in the second quarter of 2025 and 0.081 in the second quarter of 2026, while allowing for gradual ownership and jurisdiction changes.
Why this confidence: Recent implied rates cluster near the assumption ↑, Ownership structure changes the consolidated rate ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2025 tax expense of $98 million on $1.104 billion of pretax income implies a rate near 0.089.[IBKR 2Q25 results]· primary
Evidence against
- IBKR says its tax expense differs from the US statutory rate primarily because income attributable to noncontrolling interests receives different tax treatment.[IBKR 2025 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate11.0%low
How derived: The assumption exceeds reported capital spending as a share of earnings because IBKR must also retain regulatory and liquidity capital while expanding margin loans and customer balances.
Why this confidence: Reported capital spending provides a lower-bound reference ↑, Regulatory-capital needs require analyst estimation ↓
Measured by
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Evidence for
- Customer margin loans increased 0.67 to $108.5 billion, requiring balance-sheet and risk-management capacity alongside technology investment.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half capital expenditures were only $44 million against $2.509 billion of net income.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The rate sits modestly above the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective because IBKR can continue taking share through low-cost automation and access to more than 170 markets, but it remains below expected nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Large global addressable market ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Industry market-share ceiling is unknown ↓
Measured by
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
Evidence for
- IBKR operates an automated global platform spanning more than 170 exchanges and market centers.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The company cautions that dependence on trading volumes and interest-rate levels makes revenue and profit prone to significant fluctuations.[IBKR 2026 prospectus supplement]· primary
Bull
low confidence$85.80
IV / share
-7.7% vs $92.95
- Explicit cash flows
- $20.92
- Terminal value
- $64.88
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $85.80
75.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.8 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth27.0% → 24.0% → 20.0% → 17.0% → 14.0%low
How derived: The opening rate matches recent adjusted revenue momentum and assumes rapid account acquisition, expanding margin balances, and product and geographic additions sustain unusually strong growth before moderation.
Why this confidence: Latest operating metrics support the initial rate ↑, Sustaining exceptional growth at increasing scale ↓, Market activity is cyclical ↓
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Evidence for
- Adjusted second-quarter revenue grew 0.27, while customer accounts, equity, DARTs, and margin loans grew 0.34, 0.40, 0.36, and 0.67.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
- Commission revenue and net interest income increased 0.30 and 0.23, respectively, in the latest quarter.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- August DART growth of 0.23 lagged account growth of 0.35, and DARTs declined 0.03 from July.[IBKR August 2026 brokerage metrics]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%low
How derived: The target extends the latest 0.77 adjusted pretax margin to 0.80 as automated infrastructure handles more accounts and transactions without proportionate expense growth.
Why this confidence: Recent margin trend demonstrates operating leverage ↑, Target exceeds the reported record ↓
Clamped from 80.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Client accounts, second-quarter end5,185,000reported
- Daily revenue trades, second-quarter average4,824,000reported
- Adjusted pretax margin, second quarter77.0%reported
Evidence for
- Adjusted pretax margin rose from 0.73 in the second quarter of 2024 to 0.77 in the second quarter of 2026 as revenue scaled.[IBKR 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Employee compensation is experiencing inflation and execution, clearing, and distribution fees rose 0.22 in the latest quarter.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate8.0%low
How derived: The rate approximates the latest quarter's 0.081 consolidated tax burden and assumes geographic and ownership changes do not materially increase it.
Why this confidence: Matches the latest reported implied rate ↑, Long-run ownership and tax-jurisdiction mix ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 tax expense of $118 million on $1.46 billion of pretax income implies a rate of approximately 0.081.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The company reported higher tax expense from European minimum-tax rules and IBG Inc.'s rising ownership of IBG LLC.[IBKR 2025 annual report]· primary
Reinvestment rate9.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes IBKR's automated, customer-funded model continues producing high incremental returns, so rapid expansion requires only a modest portion of operating profit despite higher infrastructure spending.
Why this confidence: Observed tangible capital intensity is low ↑, Regulatory capital required for high growth is uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Client margin loans, second-quarter end$109Breported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 capital expenditures were $44 million while net income was $2.509 billion, indicating low tangible capital intensity.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Margin loans increased 0.67 and total assets reached $247.3 billion, so continued rapid growth can require additional regulatory and liquidity capital.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes IBKR remains a structural share gainer after the explicit forecast, growing above the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective but below nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Long record of customer share gains ↑, Perpetual above-inflation growth assumption ↓
Measured by
- Client equity, second-quarter end$930Breported
Evidence for
- IBKR's automated platform serves more than 170 exchanges and market centers, while second-quarter accounts were still growing 0.34 year over year.[IBKR 2Q26 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is 0.02, and no company can permanently outgrow the economy without eventually reaching market-share constraints.[Federal Reserve July 2026 Monetary Policy Report]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating47 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 73% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The tax rate assumption is low-confidence.→ tax rate
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 31.7% | — | — | 438.15M | 309.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 35.2% | — | — | 439.46M | 306.3% |
| Q2 2025 | 21.9% | — | — | 441.44M | 1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | 18.9% | — | — | 446.53M | 1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | 18.1% | — | — | 448.37M | 2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | 31.5% | — | — | 450.09M | 2.0% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The rate is the US Treasury's 10-year nominal par yield for September 4, 2026, expressed as a decimal.
The input uses the July 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied US equity risk premium.
The input is IBKR's September 4, 2026 regular-session closing price.
Generated 9/6/2026, 11:41:39 AM · pipeline v1.2.0