KLA CORP
Nasdaq: KLAC·Milpitas, California·CIK 0000319201
- Price
- $200.33
- Base IV
- $59.00
- Your value
- $59.00
- -70.5%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Aug 21, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $200.33 the market is pricing KLA CORP as if revenue grows 47.1% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 12.0% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+47.1%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+12.0%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth20.0%
- 02 Operating margin43.5%
- 03 Risk and beta1.41
- 04 Long-run growth2.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →KLA finished fiscal 2026 with record revenue of $13.6 billion, up about 12%, and each quarter of the year grew faster than the last, ending at 15% growth in the June quarter. Management has guided the September quarter to roughly $4 billion — about 25% above a year earlier — and pointed to an industry equipment market rising from about $150 billion this year toward $190 billion next year, so the first forecast year is unusually well supported. From there this case fades growth toward the low end of the company's own 13-to-17% long-range plan and then below it, because KLA's own record shows revenue can fall outright after a record year, as it did in fiscal 2024. Profitability is held near the roughly 44% level just reported: gains from scale are assumed to be offset by the memory-pricing and tariff pressure management has already flagged, and by more than half of sales sitting in Taiwan and China, where trade policy can change quickly.
What shapes the assumptions
No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion5.7
- Terminal-value dependency3.1
- Historical stability7.6
- Margin predictability—
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $611.50 to $59.00 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Diluted shares—
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Terminal-growth assumption—
- Discount rate—
Base estimate
$59.00 -70.5%