LLY
ELI LILLY & CoNYSEThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for LLY; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$72.2B
Diluted shares
895,900,000
Net cash
-$34.1B
Bear
medium confidence$271.14
IV / share
-76.3% vs $1,144.34
Revenue growth13.5% → 9.0% → 6.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%medium
Assumes 2026 lands at the bottom of guidance and growth decays fast as most-favored-nation and Medicare/Medicaid pricing ($245 Zepbound/Mounjaro), oral competition from Novo and payer volume caps erode the 13% price decline already visible in Q1 2026.
Operating margin34.0%medium
Haircuts the guided non-GAAP performance margin by roughly a third to reflect sustained price erosion, recurring acquired-IPR&D and business-development charges, and depreciation from the $50B+ manufacturing build-out running against a smaller revenue base.
Tax rate21.0%medium
Assumes Lilly's guided high-teens rate drifts up toward the US statutory rate as Pillar Two minimum taxes, reshored US manufacturing income and reduced foreign-derived intangible income benefits bite.
Reinvestment rate38.0%medium
The $50B+ factory commitment and rising R&D are largely fixed obligations, so in a slow-growth world Lilly still plows a high share of after-tax profit back into capacity that earns a poor return.
Terminal growth1.5%medium
Sets steady-state growth below inflation to reflect the incretin franchise losing exclusivity in the mid-2030s with an unproven next wave to replace it.
Base
medium confidence$589.29
IV / share
-48.5% vs $1,144.34
Revenue growth15.5% → 15.5% → 12.0% → 10.0% → 8.5%high
Starts at the midpoint of raised FY2026 guidance (~$83B off a $72.2B trailing base), tracks consensus for 2027-2028, then decelerates as the obesity market matures and orforglipron/retatrutide launches annualize.
Operating margin42.0%high
Assumes Lilly sustains most of its guided performance margin through scale on new capacity, but settles several points lower on a GAAP basis for ongoing IPR&D/business-development charges and continued negative price/mix.
Tax rate19.0%high
Uses the top of management's own guided range as the sustainable long-run rate, allowing for a modest upward drift as US-domiciled manufacturing income grows.
Reinvestment rate32.0%medium
Roughly a third of after-tax operating profit is redeployed into capacity and pipeline, consistent with ~12% average growth against Lilly's historically high returns on invested capital.
Terminal growth2.5%high
Caps steady-state growth at roughly long-run nominal GDP, well below the risk-free rate, as pharma pipelines eventually revert to economy-wide growth after the incretin cycle.
Bull
low confidence$1,012.93
IV / share
-11.5% vs $1,144.34
Revenue growth18.0% → 21.0% → 17.0% → 14.0% → 11.0%medium
Assumes the oral GLP-1 Foundayo (orforglipron) plus retatrutide expand the treated obesity population far beyond injectables, with new Medicare coverage adding volume that more than offsets lower per-script pricing.
Operating margin48.0%medium
Holds the high end of guided performance margin permanently, on the view that a small-molecule oral pill carries far lower unit cost than peptide injectables and the completed factories deliver strong operating leverage.
Tax rate17.0%medium
Assumes Lilly sustains a rate near recent quarterly actuals, below guidance, via US manufacturing and export-related tax incentives on its reshored capacity.
Reinvestment rate28.0%medium
Assumes the heavy factory spending is mostly pre-built, so rapid revenue growth is absorbed by existing capacity and a smaller share of profit needs to be reinvested per dollar of growth.
Terminal growth3.2%low
Allows steady-state growth modestly above nominal GDP because a later-expiring oral franchise and chronic lifelong dosing give Lilly a durable annuity past the 2030s.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year US Treasury is the standard currency-matched risk-free rate for a USD-denominated DCF and was trading near 4.7% at the valuation date.
Blends Lilly's low observed regression beta toward the pharma-sector average and 1.0, since a stock this concentrated in one therapeutic franchise is unlikely to be as defensive going forward as its trailing regression implies.
Uses the current forward-looking implied premium for the US market rather than a backward-looking historical average.
Most recent confirmed close before the valuation date, ahead of the Aug 5, 2026 Q2 print.
Generated 8/4/2026, 1:08:33 PM · pipeline v1.0.0