MU
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INCNasdaqThree independently researched cases — bear, base, and bull — generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Valuation history every run
Market vs intrinsic value as of valuation
Compared against the researched share price for MU; recalculate the valuation to refresh it.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$90.3B
Diluted shares
1,145,000,000
Net cash
-$1.6B
Bear
medium confidence$117.59
IV / share
-86.5% vs $873.29
Revenue growth120.0% → -15.0% → -25.0% → -5.0% → 8.0%medium
Assumes the AI-memory price spike peaks around the guided ~$50B quarter and then mean-reverts hard, as every prior Micron up-cycle has, once 2027-2028 fab capacity from Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix lands simultaneously.
Operating margin22.0%medium
Reverts to a historical mid-cycle memory margin, treating today's ~80% operating margin as a pricing anomaly rather than a structural change.
Tax rate17.0%medium
Slightly above guidance because CHIPS-related credits and the Singapore/Japan mix that hold Micron's rate near 15% erode as US fabs carry more of the profit.
Reinvestment rate45.0%medium
Fab commitments are largely irreversible, so capex stays heavy and consumes a large share of a shrinking profit pool, depressing returns on capital.
Terminal growth1.5%medium
Below long-run nominal GDP, reflecting memory's structural price deflation where bit-volume growth is largely offset by falling prices per bit.
Base
medium confidence$404.96
IV / share
-53.6% vs $873.29
Revenue growth160.0% → 15.0% → -20.0% → -5.0% → 10.0%medium
Year one tracks the ~$239B FY2027 consensus off a $90.3B trailing base, followed by a peak around 2028 and a normal cyclical correction as the 2027-28 capacity wave arrives.
Operating margin35.0%medium
Settles well above Micron's historical mid-cycle profitability because of the richer HBM mix and a consolidated three-supplier market, but far below today's unrepeatable shortage-driven margins.
Tax rate15.0%high
Uses management's own guided rate, which is consistent with the 15% global minimum tax floor.
Reinvestment rate35.0%medium
Reflects a sustained multi-year fab and advanced-packaging build (Idaho, New York, Singapore) that absorbs roughly a third of after-tax operating profit.
Terminal growth2.5%high
Anchored to long-run nominal GDP, the standard ceiling for a mature cyclical hardware business.
Bull
low confidence$1,041.79
IV / share
+19.3% vs $873.29
Revenue growth175.0% → 30.0% → 12.0% → -5.0% → 12.0%low
Assumes the structural shortage extends past 2028 because cleanroom space and construction lead times cap industry supply, letting Micron grow off an already-record base.
Operating margin48.0%low
Holds margins above the prior cycle peak on the assumption that HBM's contracted, sold-out pricing structurally decouples Micron from commodity DRAM economics.
Tax rate14.0%medium
Modestly below guidance, assuming continued benefit from CHIPS Act investment credits and Micron's Singapore and Japan manufacturing footprint.
Reinvestment rate28.0%medium
Capex stays large in dollars but falls as a share of after-tax profit because revenue and margins scale faster than the fab build, implying high returns on invested capital.
Terminal growth3.0%medium
Slightly above nominal GDP but still capped below the risk-free rate, treating memory as a permanently faster-growing layer of AI infrastructure.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year US Treasury is the standard risk-free proxy for a USD-denominated DCF and sat near 4.6% in early August 2026.
Anchored on the 5-year monthly regression beta near 1.5, nudged up slightly for Micron's extreme earnings cyclicality relative to the market.
Uses Damodaran's forward-looking implied premium rather than a historical average, consistent with current elevated index valuations.
Latest traded price, well off the $1,213 June 2026 all-time closing high.
Generated 8/5/2026, 1:52:03 PM · pipeline v1.0.0