NEE
NEXTERA ENERGY INCNYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives NEE's base case?
base-case thesisRevenue grew strongly in 2025 before slowing in early 2026, so this case assumes a middle path rather than extending either extreme. Florida customer additions and regulated investment provide a stable foundation, while the 33-gigawatt project pipeline adds growth. Profitability stays near the recent average, but the business must continue reinvesting heavily to achieve it.
What shapes the assumptions
Energy Resources backlog reached about 33 GW
Contracted development backlog
Raises revenue growth
FPL regulatory capital employed grew 0.081 in 2025
Annual regulatory capital growth
Raises operating margin
Annual capital investment remained above $24 billion
Capital expenditures and investments
Raises reinvestment
FPL customer accounts grew 0.017 in 2025
Annual customer-account growth
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 47.8% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 8.7% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 49.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. FPL annual regulatory-capital growth
This measures growth in the regulated capital on which FPL can earn an allowed return and therefore directly tracks its earnings base.
8.1%
reported2. Energy Resources development backlog
This is contracted or committed future generation and storage capacity and is the clearest operating indicator of future project-driven growth.
33 GW
reported3. Annual capital investment
This measures cash committed to utility infrastructure, generation, storage, and other projects, determining both future growth and near-term free-cash-flow pressure.
$25B
reported4. FPL annual customer-account growth
This measures expansion of FPL's retail customer base, which drives electricity demand, regulated investment requirements, and durable revenue growth.
1.7%
reported5. Annual operating cash flow
This measures internally generated cash available to fund construction, service debt, and reduce dependence on new securities.
$12B
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$26B
Diluted shares
2,092,400,000
Net cash
-$95.8B
Bear
low confidence-$34.54
IV / share
-141.1% vs $84.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $2.07
- Terminal value
- $9.16
- Net cash
- -$45.78
- Intrinsic value / share
- -$34.54
Revenue growth3.0% → 4.0% → 4.0% → 3.5% → 3.0%medium
How derived: Revenue rose 0.1068 in 2025 but only 0.0167 year over year in the supplied first-quarter 2026 actual, so this case assumes that slower utility demand, project delays, and weaker customer-supply results outweigh most of the 33 GW development backlog.
Why this confidence: Recent reported revenue deceleration ↑, Backlog conversion timing uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Evidence for
- The first-quarter filing said lower contributions from natural-gas and oil production assets hurt the customer-supply business, while higher operating costs accompanied growth at Energy Resources.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Energy Resources added 4 GW during the quarter and reported an approximately 33 GW backlog, providing considerably more growth visibility than this case assumes.[NEE Q1 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin29.0%medium
How derived: The supplied quarterly actuals imply a roughly 0.32 revenue-weighted margin for 2025 and 0.362 in first-quarter 2026, but this case discounts those levels for rising operations, depreciation, financing-related, and project-execution costs.
Why this confidence: Multiple quarters of supplied margin data ↑, Hedge and asset-sale volatility ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- Energy Resources' first-quarter operating expenses increased by $340 million, including $211 million of additional operations and maintenance expense.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- FPL earned an approximately 0.117 regulatory return on equity in 2025, and new investments increased Energy Resources' first-quarter earnings.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate17.0%low
How derived: Starting from the 0.21 federal statutory rate, this case allows only a modest durable reduction for state-tax effects and clean-energy credits because production credits expire after ten years unless qualifying assets are repowered.
Why this confidence: Statutory federal rate is observable ↑, Project-specific tax-credit timing ↓, Tax-law uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- NextEra states that production tax credits roll off after ten years of production unless wind and solar projects are repowered.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Clean-energy production and investment credits significantly reduced reported taxes, and management believed its wind and solar pipeline through 2030 would qualify for available credits.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate85.0%medium
How derived: With 2025 capital investment of $24.606 billion versus $12.485 billion of operating cash flow, this case retains a high share of after-tax operating profit while assuming weaker execution makes that spending less productive.
Why this confidence: Three years of reported capital spending ↑, Reinvestment efficiency is judgmental ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- Consolidated capital expenditures and investments were $25.113 billion, $24.729 billion, and $24.606 billion in 2023, 2024, and 2025, consistently exceeding operating cash flow.[NEE 2025 capital expenditures]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects operating cash flow to grow at or above its long-term adjusted earnings growth rate, which could improve internal funding.[NEE Q4 2025 presentation]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: FPL's 0.017 customer-account growth in 2025 supports expansion near inflation over time, but this case assumes mature utility economics, regulatory constraints, and financing needs prevent faster perpetual growth.
Why this confidence: Measured customer-account growth ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Evidence for
- FPL's average customer accounts increased 0.017 in 2025, below the prior year's 0.019 growth.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FPL expected to add about 330,000 customer accounts through 2029, supporting a longer period of above-inflation infrastructure investment.[FPL rate-plan announcement]· primary
Base
low confidence-$19.01
IV / share
-122.6% vs $84.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $4.36
- Terminal value
- $22.41
- Net cash
- -$45.78
- Intrinsic value / share
- -$19.01
Revenue growth6.0% → 7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0% → 5.5%medium
How derived: The path is set below 2025's supplied 0.1068 revenue rebound but above first-quarter 2026's 0.0167 growth because FPL investment, customer additions, and Energy Resources' 33 GW backlog should convert gradually into revenue.
Why this confidence: Contracted development backlog ↑, Revenue is not directly guided ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Price implies: 47.8% vs our 6.2% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Energy Resources reported an approximately 33 GW backlog after adding 4 GW during first-quarter 2026, while FPL serves more than six million customer accounts in a growing service territory.[NEE Q1 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The filing identified lower customer-supply contributions, policy and tariff uncertainty, and potential permitting and interconnection changes affecting wind and solar development.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin32.0%medium
How derived: The assumption holds profitability near the approximately 0.32 revenue-weighted level implied by the supplied 2025 quarters, balancing regulated returns and new contracted assets against higher depreciation and operating costs.
Why this confidence: Recent multi-quarter profitability ↑, Commodity hedges and regulatory accounting ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- FPL earned an approximately 0.117 regulatory return on equity in 2025, while new wind, solar, and storage investments increased Energy Resources' earnings in first-quarter 2026.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Energy Resources' first-quarter operating expenses increased $340 million, exceeding the $148 million increase in operating revenue.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate12.0%low
How derived: The normalized rate starts from the 0.21 federal rate and assumes recurring production and investment credits plus regulatory tax treatment continue to reduce cash taxes, but not to the unusually negative recent reported rate.
Why this confidence: Documented clean-energy credits ↑, Highly volatile reported tax rates ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The company treats production and investment tax credits as fundamental components of wind, solar, and storage project economics, and those credits materially reduced recent tax expense.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- NextEra warns that production credits expire after ten years absent repowering and that tax-law changes can alter project economics.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate75.0%medium
How derived: The company spent $24.606 billion on capital investment in 2025 and plans major FPL and Energy Resources construction, so the model retains most operating profit while allowing depreciation recovery and improving cash flow to fund part of the program.
Why this confidence: Approved multi-year investment schedule ↑, Future project financing mix ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- Capital investment remained above $24 billion in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025, and the March 2026 filing listed $93.42 billion of approved FPL and Energy Resources expenditures through 2030.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Operating cash flow was $12.485 billion in 2025 and management expects it to grow at or above adjusted earnings, which should gradually reduce reliance on retained cash and external capital.[NEE Q4 2025 presentation]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The rate reflects enduring electricity-demand and customer growth modestly above the bear case, but it remains below the current 0.0478 ten-year Treasury yield and well below near-term project growth.
Why this confidence: Visible Florida customer additions ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Evidence for
- FPL added about 275,000 customer accounts from 2021 through 2024 and expected about 330,000 additional accounts through 2029.[FPL rate-plan announcement]· primary
Evidence against
- Annual average customer-account growth slowed from 0.019 in 2024 to 0.017 in 2025, and average usage per retail customer declined 0.012 in 2025.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$6.72
IV / share
-92.0% vs $84.06
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.50
- Terminal value
- $44.99
- Net cash
- -$45.78
- Intrinsic value / share
- $6.72
670.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth9.0% → 10.0% → 9.0% → 8.0% → 7.0%low
How derived: This case extends much of 2025's supplied 0.1068 growth by assuming rapid conversion of the approximately 33 GW backlog, successful data-center power development, and sustained FPL infrastructure expansion.
Why this confidence: Record backlog additions ↑, Aggressive conversion assumptions ↓, No company revenue guidance ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Evidence for
- Energy Resources originated a record 4 GW in first-quarter 2026, bringing backlog to approximately 33 GW, and was developing more than 30 data-center hubs.[NEE Q1 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The supplied first-quarter 2026 revenue growth was only 0.0167, and NextEra disclosed tariff, permitting, interconnection, and tax-policy risks to project development.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin35.0%low
How derived: The supplied first-quarter 2026 margin reached 0.362, so this case assumes that regulated rate-base growth, scale, tax-supported renewables, and asset reliability preserve most of that improvement.
Why this confidence: Recent first-quarter profitability ↑, Quarterly margin volatility ↓, Execution-dependent scale benefits ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- FPL's 2025 regulatory return on equity was approximately 0.117, and new wind, solar, and storage assets increased Energy Resources' first-quarter results.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- First-quarter Energy Resources operating expenses rose $340 million, and the 2025 presentation identified asset reliability and wind resource as material earnings sensitivities.[NEE Q4 2025 presentation]· primary
Tax rate8.0%low
How derived: This case assumes continued production and investment credits across a rapidly expanding renewable and storage fleet keep normalized cash taxes far below the 0.21 federal rate without extending the recent negative reported tax rate.
Why this confidence: Large qualifying project pipeline ↑, Future tax policy ↓, Credit timing volatility ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- FPL recorded $367 million of clean-energy tax credits in first-quarter 2026, and NextEra expected its wind and solar pipeline through 2030 to qualify for clean-energy credits.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Production credits expire after ten years without repowering, and legislative or administrative changes could reduce future benefits.[NEE Q1 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate65.0%low
How derived: Although construction remains substantial, this case assumes backlog scale, customer prepayments, tax credits, depreciation recovery, and faster operating-cash-flow growth allow each retained dollar to support more growth.
Why this confidence: Long-term contracted cash flows ↑, Unproven improvement in capital efficiency ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual regulatory-capital growth8.1%reported
- Energy Resources development backlog33 GWreported
- Annual capital investment$25Breported
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
- Annual operating cash flow$12Breported
Evidence for
- Management expects operating cash flow to grow at or above its adjusted earnings growth rate, and Energy Resources' long-term contracts support recurring cash generation.[NEE Q4 2025 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Capital expenditures and investments exceeded $24 billion in each of the last three full years and remained almost twice 2025 operating cash flow.[NEE capital expenditure and cash-flow history]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: This rate assumes Florida population and electricity demand, grid replacement, electrification, and renewable repowering sustain growth above recent customer additions, while remaining below the current long-term Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Visible customer and large-load pipeline ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓, Long-run economic-growth constraint ↓
Measured by
- FPL annual customer-account growth1.7%reported
Evidence for
- FPL expected about 330,000 additional customer accounts through 2029, while Energy Resources was pursuing more than 30 data-center hubs and large-load generation opportunities.[FPL rate-plan announcement]· primary
Evidence against
- FPL customer-account growth slowed to 0.017 in 2025 and retail usage per customer declined 0.012, indicating that recent underlying demand growth was below this perpetual assumption.[NEE 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating49 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The tax rate assumption is low-confidence.→ tax rate
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | -4.8% | — | — | 2.06B | 1.5% |
| Q3 2024 | -6.9% | — | — | 2.06B | 1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 11.1% | — | — | 2.06B | 0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | 6.7% | — | — | 2.06B | 0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 10.4% | — | — | 2.07B | 0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7% | — | — | 2.09B | 1.5% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 0.0478 rate is the U.S. Treasury's ten-year constant-maturity par yield for September 4, 2026.
The current published five-year market beta is used because it measures NEE's observed share-price sensitivity rather than importing an analyst valuation conclusion.
The latest directly published NYU Stern forward-looking U.S. implied equity risk premium was 0.0418 on July 1, 2026.
The value is NEE's unadjusted closing price on September 4, 2026, the latest completed trading session.
Generated 9/6/2026, 4:08:51 AM · pipeline v1.2.0