NEM
NEWMONT Corp /DE/NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives NEM's base case?
base-case thesisRecent growth came from both the larger post-acquisition portfolio and sharply higher metal prices. Near-term mine sequencing and lower output should restrain sales, while Ahafo North and projects at Tanami, Cadia, Boddington and Lihir support a later recovery. Costs remain above 2025 levels, so profitability settles below the exceptional recent period.
What shapes the assumptions
Longer-term output plan targets about 6 million gold ounces and 150 thousand copper tonnes
Attributable metal production
Raises revenue growth
2025 adjusted earnings before interest, tax and depreciation reached $13.48 billion
Adjusted operating earnings
Raises operating margin
Management guides to a 0.33 adjusted tax rate for 2026
Adjusted effective tax rate
Informs tax rate
Sustaining and development capital guidance totals $3.35 billion
Annual capital investment
Raises reinvestment
Ten major operations have at least ten years of reserve life
Mine reserve life
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 15.2% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 15.6% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 82.7% operating margin, against the 44.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 52.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Realized gold price, full year
The average selling price per gold ounce is the largest direct determinant of revenue and incremental profit.
3,498 currency per ounce
reported2. Attributable gold production, full year
Annual gold ounces attributable to Newmont measure the saleable production base independent of metal-price movements.
5.9 million ounces
reported3. Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year
This comparable per-ounce cost captures operating and sustaining requirements that determine how much gold-price revenue becomes cash profit.
1,358 currency per ounce
reported4. Property and mine-development additions, full year
Annual additions to property, plant and mine development show the cash required to sustain production and build future capacity.
$3B
reported5. Attributable gold reserves, year end
Proven and probable reserve ounces measure the economically supportable production inventory underlying mine life and long-run value.
118.2 million ounces
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$25.8B
Diluted shares
1,067,000,000
Net cash
$3.9B
Bear
low confidence$34.23
IV / share
-73.3% vs $128.09
- Explicit cash flows
- $8.90
- Terminal value
- $21.64
- Net cash
- $3.68
- Intrinsic value / share
- $34.23
63.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth-12.0% → -6.0% → 0.0% → 1.0% → 1.0%low
How derived: The forecast starts from the recent revenue surge but assumes lower metal prices and the guided reduction in gold output overwhelm subsequent project ramp-ups before revenue stabilizes.
Why this confidence: Company production guidance ↑, Unpredictable five-year metal prices ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont expects 2026 attributable gold production of 5.3 million ounces, below the 5.9 million ounces produced in 2025, while Cadia and several other mines face lower grades or planned sequencing.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 revenue remained strong, and management still expects Ahafo North, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia and Lihir projects to support longer-term production near 6 million gold ounces annually.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin34.0%low
How derived: The assumption discounts the unusually profitable 2025 and first-half 2026 periods for lower metal prices, higher royalties and the increase in guided gold all-in sustaining cost from 2025.
Why this confidence: Company cost guidance ↑, High sensitivity to future gold prices ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
Evidence for
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost rose to $1,621 per ounce in Q2 2026, and the full-year guide of $1,680 exceeds the $1,358 reported for 2025.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Newmont generated $13.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $7.3 billion of free cash flow in 2025, demonstrating substantial current cost coverage at strong metal prices.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Tax rate38.0%medium
How derived: The rate begins with management's 0.33 adjusted 2026 guide but moves upward toward the approximately 0.405 reported 2025 ratio of income and mining tax expense to pretax income because stronger jurisdictions and commodity-linked mining taxes can raise the burden.
Why this confidence: Reported tax expense ↑, Geographic income mix and special tax items ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
Evidence for
- Newmont reported $4.596 billion of income and mining tax expense against $11.342 billion of pretax income in 2025, a reported effective ratio of approximately 0.405.[Newmont 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's adjusted effective tax-rate guidance for 2026 is 0.33 under its stated commodity-price and operating assumptions.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Reinvestment rate48.0%medium
How derived: The rate reflects $3.35 billion of guided sustaining and development capital plus unusually heavy reclamation spending, with weaker earnings making those largely necessary outlays consume a larger share of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Detailed company capital guidance ↑, Uncertain timing of mine-development spending ↓
Measured by
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont guides to $1.95 billion of sustaining capital, $1.4 billion of development capital and approximately $850 million of reclamation spending in 2026.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects reclamation spending to return to a more normal $300 million to $400 million in 2028 after the Yanacocha water-treatment build.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth1.0%low
How derived: The long-run rate is held near zero because mines deplete and 2025 gold reserves declined, while a small nominal increase remains possible through price-supported reserve conversion and exploration.
Why this confidence: Audited annual reserve process ↑, Very long forecast horizon and future discoveries ↓
Measured by
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Attributable gold reserves fell from 134.1 million ounces in 2024 to 118.2 million in 2025, including 7.2 million ounces of depletion and 5.6 million ounces of negative revisions.[Newmont 2025 Mineral Reserves]· primary
Evidence against
- Newmont reports reserve lives of at least ten years at ten major operations and describes 118.2 million ounces as supporting decades of production.[Newmont 2025 Mineral Reserves]· primary
Base
low confidence$69.87
IV / share
-45.5% vs $128.09
- Explicit cash flows
- $16.69
- Terminal value
- $49.50
- Net cash
- $3.68
- Intrinsic value / share
- $69.87
70.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth-4.0% → 0.0% → 2.0% → 2.0% → 2.0%medium
How derived: The forecast assumes the recent price-led revenue surge partially normalizes before Ahafo North, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia and Lihir offset depletion and restore modest nominal growth.
Why this confidence: Named projects with disclosed schedules ↑, Commodity prices dominate revenue ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Price implies: 15.2% vs our 0.4% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management expects approximately 5.3 million attributable gold ounces in 2026 and identifies projects capable of lifting longer-term annual output toward 6 million gold ounces and 150 thousand tonnes of copper.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 gold production declined to 1.293 million ounces and copper production fell to 17 thousand tonnes following lower grades and the Cadia seismic disruption.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin44.0%medium
How derived: The target normalizes below the approximately 0.483 adjusted-EBIT proxy for 2025 and the still higher first-half 2026 level to reflect higher unit costs and less exceptional metal pricing.
Why this confidence: Reported sales, EBITDA and depreciation ↑, Metal-price and grade volatility ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
Price implies: 82.7% vs our 44.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Newmont reported $13.480 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $2.521 billion of depreciation and amortization on $22.669 billion of 2025 sales, implying an adjusted-EBIT proxy near 0.483.[Newmont 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management increased 2026 gold all-in sustaining cost guidance to $1,680 per ounce from the $1,358 achieved in 2025 because of lower volumes, higher royalties and greater capital spending.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Tax rate33.0%medium
How derived: The assumption adopts management's 0.33 adjusted tax guide because it incorporates the expected geographic earnings mix and mining taxes under the company's stated 2026 price assumptions.
Why this confidence: Explicit management guidance ↑, Country mix and one-time tax adjustments ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
Evidence for
- Newmont guides to an adjusted effective tax rate of 0.33 for 2026 using its specified gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc prices.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- The reported 2025 ratio of income and mining tax expense to pretax income was approximately 0.405, partly reflecting additional taxes on undistributed foreign earnings.[Newmont 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%medium
How derived: The rate is anchored to the roughly 0.41 ratio of 2025 capital expenditure to estimated after-tax adjusted operating profit and remains elevated while major mine extensions are under construction.
Why this confidence: Reported capital expenditure and project guidance ↑, Reinvestment definition requires normalization of reclamation and working capital ↓
Measured by
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont spent $3.035 billion on property, plant and mine development in 2025 and guides to $3.35 billion of sustaining and development capital in 2026.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- Despite $3.035 billion of capital expenditure, Newmont generated record free cash flow of $7.299 billion in 2025, indicating that current earnings can fund the program without absorbing most operating profit.[Newmont 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The nominal long-run rate balances natural mine depletion against more than ten years of reserves at major assets, continued exploration and disclosed life-extension projects.
Why this confidence: Large disclosed reserve base ↑, Mine depletion and uncertain future discoveries ↓
Measured by
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont has 118.2 million attributable gold reserve ounces, at least ten years of reserve life at ten major operations and approved extensions such as Lihir Nearshore Barrier.[Newmont 2025 Mineral Reserves]· primary
Evidence against
- Gold reserves declined by 15.9 million ounces during 2025, with depletion, divestments, negative revisions and cost escalation exceeding additions and price-related revisions.[Newmont 2025 Mineral Reserves]· primary
Bull
low confidence$118.27
IV / share
-7.7% vs $128.09
- Explicit cash flows
- $26.41
- Terminal value
- $88.19
- Net cash
- $3.68
- Intrinsic value / share
- $118.27
74.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth6.0% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0% → 2.5%low
How derived: The forecast assumes strong metal prices persist while Ahafo North ramps and higher grades plus Tanami, Cadia and Lihir projects lift output toward management's longer-term production objective.
Why this confidence: Specific commissioned and construction-stage projects ↑, Assumption that elevated commodity prices persist ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Ahafo North is expected to ramp throughout 2026, Boddington should access higher grades from 2027, Tanami Expansion 2 is scheduled for the second half of 2027, and Cadia and Lihir extensions support longer-term output.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's 2026 gold-production guide is 5.3 million ounces, below 2025 production, and Q2 output was affected by lower grades and a seismic disruption at Cadia.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin52.0%low
How derived: The target assumes strong realized metal prices and low-cost project ounces sustain profitability above the 2025 adjusted-EBIT proxy but below the approximately 0.57 unadjusted EBIT proxy from first-half 2026.
Why this confidence: Strong reported first-half earnings ↑, Cyclical metal prices and operational disruptions ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
- Attributable gold production, full year5.9 million ouncesreported
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 EBITDA of $8.892 billion less $1.236 billion of depreciation and amortization on $13.425 billion of revenue implies an unadjusted EBIT proxy near 0.57.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 gold all-in sustaining cost increased to $1,621 per ounce due to lower volumes, higher capital spending, royalties and Cadia downtime.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate30.0%low
How derived: The assumption rounds the first-half 2026 reported ratio of $2.356 billion in tax expense to $7.582 billion of pretax income while allowing modest benefit from a more favorable geographic earnings mix.
Why this confidence: Current-period reported tax ratio ↑, Commodity-linked and jurisdiction-specific taxes ↓
Measured by
- Realized gold price, full year3,498 currency per ouncereported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 income and mining tax expense was $2.356 billion on $7.582 billion of pretax income, an effective ratio of approximately 0.311.[Newmont Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management guides to a 0.33 adjusted 2026 tax rate, while higher gold prices also increase royalties, production taxes and profit-sharing costs.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Reinvestment rate34.0%medium
How derived: The rate assumes high earnings and better project execution allow the disclosed mine-development program to support growth while consuming a smaller fraction of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Reported cash-flow coverage of capital spending ↑, Large multi-year project commitments ↓
Measured by
- Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, full year1,358 currency per ouncereported
- Property and mine-development additions, full year$3Breported
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont generated $10.334 billion of operating cash flow and $7.299 billion of free cash flow after $3.035 billion of capital expenditure in 2025.[Newmont 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2026 program still requires $1.95 billion of sustaining capital and $1.4 billion of development capital, with major work continuing at Cadia, Tanami and Lihir.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The long-run rate assumes Newmont converts resources, extends existing mines and benefits from nominal metal-price growth while remaining below the long-term risk-free rate and recognizing finite ore bodies.
Why this confidence: Large reserves, resources and approved extensions ↑, Finite deposits and uncertain conversion economics ↓
Measured by
- Attributable gold reserves, year end118.2 million ouncesreported
Evidence for
- Newmont reports 118.2 million gold reserve ounces, 148.7 million resource ounces and long-lived projects including Lihir beyond 2040 and Tanami beyond 2040.[Newmont FY2025 Results and 2026 Guidance]· primary
Evidence against
- Even after positive price revisions and resource conversion, 2025 reserve additions did not offset divestments, depletion, cost escalation and negative technical revisions.[Newmont 2025 Mineral Reserves]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating52 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 71% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 84.7% | 0.67 | 33.9% | 1.15B | 44.3% |
| Q1 2025 | 24.5% | 1.07 | 1765.9% | 1.13B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | 20.8% | 1.54 | 182.8% | 1.11B | -3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | 20.0% | 1.43 | 112.8% | 1.1B | -4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 45.8% | 2.89 | 170.5% | 1.09B | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 15.1% | 2.07 | 34.4% | 1.07B | -4.0% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the latest available 10-year U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yield for September 4, 2026, expressed as a decimal.
A bottom-up sector beta is used instead of Newmont's unstable recent regression beta; the January 2026 U.S. precious-metals sample contained 56 firms and reported a levered beta of 0.84.
The value is the September 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied premium for U.S. equities.
The value is Newmont's September 4, 2026 closing price in U.S. dollars.
Generated 9/6/2026, 12:32:24 PM · pipeline v1.2.0