NVDA
NVIDIA CORPNasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Aug 24, 2026
What drives NVDA's base case?
base-case thesisBlackwell systems and networking products are driving record demand from both the largest cloud companies and a widening group of enterprise and national customers. The next several years should remain strong as inference use expands and Rubin follows Blackwell, but growth should slow as the sales base becomes enormous. NVIDIA keeps much of its current earning power, although research spending and a more normal product mix take profitability below the latest quarter.
What shapes the assumptions
Data Center revenue increased 0.92 year over year
Quarterly Data Center revenue
Raises revenue growth
Hyperscale and other Data Center customers each supplied about half of Data Center sales
Data Center customer mix
Raises revenue growth
Latest quarterly profitability reached 0.656
GAAP operating income divided by revenue
Raises operating margin
Supply and capacity commitments rose to 119.0 billion dollars
Manufacturing and capacity commitments
Raises reinvestment
Management guided the fiscal-year tax rate to 0.16 through 0.18
Effective income-tax rate
Informs tax rate
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 60.6% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 67.7% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How much of this is timing?
- The price has risen 6.4% since this valuation was struck on 2026-08-24, so some of the gap opened up after these figures were set.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 52.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Quarterly Data Center revenue
This measures sales from NVIDIA's largest platform and shows whether demand for accelerated computing, AI systems, and networking continues to scale.
$75B
reported2. Quarterly GAAP operating profitability
This measures the portion of quarterly revenue remaining after product costs, research, sales, and administration and therefore directly determines operating cash-earning power.
65.6%
derived3. Quarterly GAAP gross margin
This measures product pricing and production economics before research and administrative spending and is an early signal of scarcity, mix, and inventory charges.
74.9%
reported4. Manufacturing and capacity commitments
This measures contracted supply obligations needed to support future systems and indicates both expected demand and the cash and inventory risk required to serve it.
$119B
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$253.5B
Diluted shares
24,391,000,000
Net cash
$4.8B
Bear
low confidence$36.11
IV / share
-84.2% vs $228.45
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.01
- Terminal value
- $21.90
- Net cash
- $0.20
- Intrinsic value / share
- $36.11
60.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth35.0% → 18.0% → 10.0% → 6.0% → 4.0%low
How derived: Starting with 0.85 year-over-year growth in the latest quarter and management's 91.0 billion dollar next-quarter outlook, this path assumes AI demand remains positive but rapidly normalizes as export restrictions, infrastructure constraints, competition, and the larger revenue base limit expansion.
Why this confidence: Near-term management guidance ↑, Five-year semiconductor demand uncertainty ↓, Export-control and infrastructure uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- NVIDIA excluded all China Data Center compute revenue from its second-quarter outlook and reported that it was effectively foreclosed from China's data-center compute market.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- First-quarter revenue increased 0.85 year over year, Data Center revenue increased 0.92, and management guided the following quarter to 91.0 billion dollars.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Operating margin50.0%low
How derived: Starting from the latest 0.656 operating profitability, the case assumes pricing pressure, rising engineering and infrastructure costs, and supply mismatches progressively remove much of the unusually high benefit from current AI accelerator scarcity.
Why this confidence: Reported quarterly profitability ↑, Uncertain future competitive pricing ↓, Product-transition cost volatility ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Quarterly GAAP gross margin74.9%reported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Operating expenses rose 0.52 year over year because of employee costs, computing infrastructure, and engineering materials, while NVIDIA warns that competition may intensify.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Quarterly operating income reached 53.536 billion dollars on 81.615 billion dollars of revenue, and gross margin was 0.749.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate21.0%medium
How derived: Starting from NVIDIA's 0.16 to 0.18 fiscal-year guidance and 0.166 latest-quarter effective rate, this case assumes foreign-income, research-credit, and stock-compensation benefits fade until the rate approaches the 0.21 U.S. statutory corporate rate.
Why this confidence: Published statutory rate ↑, Company tax guidance ↑, Long-run tax-law uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The IRS states that corporations calculate federal tax by multiplying taxable income by 0.21.[IRS Publication 542]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects a 0.16 to 0.18 rate for fiscal 2027, and the latest reported quarterly rate was 0.166 because of foreign-income, research-credit, and compensation-related benefits.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Starting from manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments rising from 95.2 billion dollars to 119.0 billion dollars in one quarter, this case assumes weaker demand conversion leaves more cash tied up in inventory, supplier commitments, cloud capacity, and working capital.
Why this confidence: Reported contractual commitments ↑, Working-capital volatility ↓, Model-definition sensitivity ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments reached 119.0 billion dollars, inventory reached 25.797 billion dollars, and the filing warns that excess commitments can cause provisions or impairments.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The fabless model and high profitability generated 50.344 billion dollars of operating cash in the latest quarter despite inventory growth.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Starting from CBO's approximately 0.035 long-run nominal economic-growth reference, this case applies a discount because competition, export restrictions, and eventual AI infrastructure maturity could make NVIDIA grow more slowly than the overall economy.
Why this confidence: Government long-run economic benchmark ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Uncertain mature-industry market share ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
Evidence for
- NVIDIA identifies intensifying competition, export controls, energy shortages, and customer financing constraints as risks capable of reducing future demand.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO projects long-run nominal U.S. economic growth near 0.035, while NVIDIA's latest Data Center revenue was still expanding 0.92 year over year.[CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook 2025 to 2055]· primary
Base
low confidence$68.37
IV / share
-70.1% vs $228.45
- Explicit cash flows
- $23.30
- Terminal value
- $44.88
- Net cash
- $0.20
- Intrinsic value / share
- $68.37
65.6% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth48.0% → 28.0% → 18.0% → 12.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: Starting with 0.85 latest-quarter growth, a 0.20 sequential increase, and 91.0 billion dollars of next-quarter guidance, this path assumes Blackwell, Rubin, networking, and enterprise inference sustain strong expansion before the larger base produces a gradual slowdown.
Why this confidence: Reported platform-level growth ↑, Near-term management guidance ↑, Five-year demand and market-share uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Price implies: 60.6% vs our 22.8% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Data Center revenue increased 0.92 year over year, with hyperscale revenue up 1.15 and AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise revenue up 0.74.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- NVIDIA says energy, data-center availability, customer capital, export controls, annual product transitions, and competing products can delay deployments or reduce demand.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin58.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the latest 0.656 level and the rise from 0.491 one year earlier, this case assumes software, networking, and scale preserve exceptional economics while normalized product mix and continued research spending reduce profitability moderately.
Why this confidence: Five consecutive quarterly observations ↑, Stable latest gross margin ↑, Future pricing and mix uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Quarterly GAAP gross margin74.9%reported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Quarterly operating profitability improved across fiscal 2026 and reached 0.656 in the latest quarter as revenue grew faster than operating expenses.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Operating expenses increased 0.52 year over year, and annual architecture transitions can create qualification delays, inventory charges, warranty costs, and revenue volatility.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate18.0%high
How derived: Starting from the latest 0.166 effective rate and management's 0.16 to 0.18 fiscal-year range, this case uses the high end to allow for fewer stock-compensation benefits and some eventual tax normalization.
Why this confidence: Explicit full-year management range ↑, Reported effective-rate reconciliation ↑, Tax-law changes beyond the guidance period ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management guided fiscal 2027's tax rate to a range of 0.16 to 0.18, excluding discrete items and material changes in the tax environment.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The latest reported rate was lower at 0.166 because foreign-derived income, lower-tax jurisdictions, stock compensation, and research credits reduced tax expense.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate34.0%low
How derived: Starting from 119.0 billion dollars of manufacturing and capacity commitments and 30.0 billion dollars of cloud commitments, this case assumes NVIDIA must reinvest materially to secure supply and develop future systems but retains the capital efficiency of outsourced manufacturing.
Why this confidence: Reported supply and cloud commitments ↑, Outsourced manufacturing model ↑, Uncertain future working-capital needs ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments increased from 95.2 billion dollars at fiscal year-end to 119.0 billion dollars one quarter later, while cloud commitments reached 30.0 billion dollars.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- NVIDIA generated 50.344 billion dollars of quarterly operating cash and relies on third-party foundries and contract manufacturers rather than owning the full fabrication base.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%low
How derived: Starting from CBO's approximately 0.035 long-run nominal U.S. economic-growth projection, this case assumes NVIDIA eventually grows in line with the economy after its current AI infrastructure expansion matures.
Why this confidence: Government long-run economic projection ↑, Growth rate below current Treasury yield ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
Evidence for
- CBO projected average nominal GDP growth of approximately 0.035 in the later portion of its long-range outlook.[CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook 2025 to 2055]· primary
Evidence against
- NVIDIA's latest Data Center revenue increased 0.92 year over year, but the company also identifies competition, export controls, power availability, and customer financing as material long-run constraints.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Bull
low confidence$104.89
IV / share
-54.1% vs $228.45
- Explicit cash flows
- $32.35
- Terminal value
- $72.35
- Net cash
- $0.20
- Intrinsic value / share
- $104.89
69.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.63 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
terminalGrowthRate of 0.045 clamped to [0, 0.04]
Revenue growth60.0% → 38.0% → 26.0% → 18.0% → 12.0%low
How derived: Starting from 0.85 latest-quarter growth, 0.92 Data Center growth, and a broadening mix beyond hyperscalers, this path assumes Blackwell and Rubin supply ramps keep pace with accelerating training, inference, sovereign, industrial, and networking demand.
Why this confidence: Exceptional reported platform growth ↑, Diversifying Data Center customer base ↑, Required sustained trillion-dollar-scale demand ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Data Center revenue reached 75.246 billion dollars, with networking revenue up 1.99 year over year and non-hyperscale Data Center customers contributing approximately half of platform sales.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- NVIDIA warns that power, data-center capacity, customer financing, component availability, annual product transitions, competition, and export controls can all constrain deployments.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%low
How derived: Starting from the latest 0.656 level, this case assumes premium system performance, expanding networking and software content, and revenue scaling faster than engineering expenses preserve most of current profitability.
Why this confidence: Strong reported margin trend ↑, Near-term gross-margin guidance ↑, Long-run pricing and competition uncertainty ↓
Clamped from 63.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Quarterly GAAP gross margin74.9%reported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- Quarterly operating profitability increased from 0.491 to 0.656 year over year, while management guided the next quarter's gross margin to approximately 0.749.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Research and development spending rose to 6.321 billion dollars, and faster annual architecture transitions increase the risk of delays, quality costs, inventory provisions, and demand pauses.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate16.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the latest 0.166 effective rate and management's 0.16 to 0.18 outlook, this case assumes geographic income mix, research credits, and compensation deductions keep the rate near the favorable end of guidance.
Why this confidence: Explicit company guidance ↑, Reported tax-benefit explanation ↑, Assumed persistence beyond guidance ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management's fiscal 2027 range begins at 0.16, and NVIDIA reports that foreign-derived income, lower-tax jurisdictions, stock compensation, and research credits reduce its effective rate.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The latest effective rate was 0.166 rather than 0.16, and the IRS statutory corporate rate is 0.21.[IRS Publication 542]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
How derived: Starting from 50.344 billion dollars of quarterly operating cash and the outsourced manufacturing structure, this case assumes rapid demand absorbs supply commitments efficiently, allowing more growth per dollar retained despite continued spending on inventory, cloud capacity, and research.
Why this confidence: Strong operating cash generation ↑, Outsourced manufacturing structure ↑, Large and rapidly changing commitments ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Evidence for
- The latest quarter produced 50.344 billion dollars of operating cash, and customer demand lifted quarterly revenue 0.20 sequentially despite outsourced production.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments reached 119.0 billion dollars, cloud commitments reached 30.0 billion dollars, and inventory increased to 25.797 billion dollars.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth•4.0%low
How derived: Starting from approximately 0.035 long-run nominal economic growth, this case adds continuing share gains from accelerated computing and AI while capping perpetual growth below the latest 0.0474 ten-year Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Broadening reported AI customer mix ↑, Assumption remains below current risk-free yield ↑, Growth exceeds long-run economy benchmark ↓, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Clamped from 4.5% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
Evidence for
- NVIDIA's Data Center revenue increased 0.92 year over year, with demand extending across hyperscale, AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign customers.[NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO's later-period nominal GDP growth reference is approximately 0.035, below this assumption, and NVIDIA lists competition and infrastructure constraints that could prevent lasting share gains.[CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook 2025 to 2055]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating52 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 77.9% | — | — | -33M | — |
| Q1 2026 | 69.2% | 1.06 | 76.8% | 24.61B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 55.6% | 0.55 | 1.0% | 24.53B | -1.3% |
| Q3 2026 | 62.5% | 0.9 | 33.1% | 24.48B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2026 | 73.2% | — | — | -28M | 15.2% |
| Q1 2027 | 85.2% | 1.99 | 87.2% | 24.39B | -0.9% |
Valuation history every run
Why intrinsic value changed
Why
No sourced event is linked to this change yet — the researched assumption moved without a cited driver observation behind it.
Measured by
- Quarterly Data Center revenue$75Breported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Why
No sourced event is linked to this change yet — the researched assumption moved without a cited driver observation behind it.
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Quarterly GAAP gross margin74.9%reported
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Why
No sourced event is linked to this change yet — the researched assumption moved without a cited driver observation behind it.
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profitability65.6%derived
- Manufacturing and capacity commitments$119Breported
Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled
Market inputs researched
The value is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year nominal constant-maturity yield for August 21, 2026, the latest completed market day available.
The value is the published five-year market beta for NVDA as displayed on August 24, 2026; beta is an estimated statistic rather than a company-reported fundamental.
The value is the June 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied premium calculated from the S&P 500's price and expected aggregate cash flows.
The value is NVDA's August 21, 2026 regular-session closing price, the latest completed close before the valuation date.
Generated 8/24/2026, 6:21:48 AM · pipeline v1.2.0