PEP
PEPSICO INCNasdaqValuation snapshot
Below base casePrice is between the bear and base cases.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives PEP's base case?
base-case thesisPepsiCo entered 2026 with slow underlying growth but produced better reported sales as acquisitions, currencies and international demand helped. The base case assumes North American volumes stabilize while international businesses continue expanding at a healthier pace. Productivity and supply-chain work gradually improve profitability, although higher taxes absorb part of the gain.
What shapes the assumptions
Reported growth includes organic, acquisition and currency gains
First-half 2026 revenue increased 0.073 while organic revenue increased 0.025
Raises revenue growth
International businesses are taking a larger sales share
Non-U.S. revenue rose to approximately 0.444 of 2025 revenue
Raises revenue growth
Productivity supports gradual profit recovery
Management targets at least 0.01 of cumulative core margin expansion through 2028
Raises operating margin
Capital intensity is declining
Capital spending fell from approximately 0.06 of revenue in 2023 to 0.047 in 2025
Lowers reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows -3.1% a year. Over the last 11 years it grew 3.8% a year — so the price assumes far less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 12.3% operating margin, against the 17.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 52.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Organic revenue growth, full year
Measures sales growth excluding currencies, acquisitions and divestitures, making it the clearest indicator of demand and pricing within the existing business.
2.0%
reported2. GAAP operating profit margin, full year
Measures the portion of revenue remaining after operating costs and captures pricing, input costs, productivity and impairment effects.
12.2%
derived5. Effective tax rate, full year
Measures the reported tax burden on pretax income and tracks whether international tax changes are reducing cash available to investors.
19.0%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$97.4B
Diluted shares
1,376,000,000
Net cash
-$33.2B
Bear
low confidence$120.19
IV / share
-13.2% vs $138.54
- Explicit cash flows
- $24.21
- Terminal value
- $120.08
- Net cash
- -$24.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $120.19
99.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth2.5% → 2.0% → 2.0% → 1.8% → 1.8%medium
How derived: PepsiCo generated 0.02 organic growth in 2025 and 0.025 year-to-date in 2026, but continued weakness in North American foods and beverages supports forecasting only modest growth that fades below the recent underlying pace.
Why this confidence: Two consecutive years of subdued organic growth ↑, Currency and acquisition effects are difficult to forecast ↓, Five-year forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Evidence for
- Fiscal 2025 organic revenue increased 0.02 while organic volume declined 0.02.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- Second-quarter 2026 PFNA revenue declined 0.02 and PBNA organic revenue grew only 0.01.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management maintained fiscal 2026 reported net-revenue growth guidance of 0.04 to 0.06, including acquisition and currency benefits.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin14.5%medium
How derived: The target allows partial recovery from the 0.122 reported 2025 margin but remains below the 0.163 year-to-date 2026 core margin because North American weakness and continuing cost pressure could absorb productivity savings.
Why this confidence: Recent reported and core margin disclosures ↑, Large impairment-related distortion in 2025 ↓, Uncertain commodity costs ↓
Measured by
- GAAP operating profit margin, full year12.2%derived
Evidence for
- Reported margin fell from 0.14 in 2024 to 0.122 in 2025 as commodity costs, impairments and lower organic volume reduced profit.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- Second-quarter 2026 core margin contracted 0.004 year over year despite productivity savings.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects at least 0.01 of cumulative core margin expansion over fiscal 2026 through 2028.[PepsiCo Preliminary 2026 Outlook]· primary
Tax rate23.0%medium
How derived: Starting with management's 0.22 core tax-rate guidance, the bear case adds 0.01 for adverse implementation of global minimum-tax rules and reduced benefit from low-tax jurisdictions.
Why this confidence: Explicit management guidance ↑, Evolving international tax legislation ↓
Measured by
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
- Effective tax rate, full year19.0%reported
Evidence for
- PepsiCo expects a 0.22 core effective tax rate in 2026 because of global minimum-tax regulations.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- PepsiCo warns that minimum-tax legislation becoming effective in its operating countries will increase its tax provision.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The reported annual tax rate was 0.19 in 2025, following 0.194 in 2024 and 0.198 in 2023.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
How derived: The case assumes 0.32 of after-tax operating profit must be reinvested because PepsiCo's manufacturing and distribution network historically required capital spending near 0.05 to 0.06 of revenue while weak volume makes incremental investment less productive.
Why this confidence: Three years of comparable capital-spending data ↑, Working-capital needs fluctuate seasonally ↓, Reinvestment efficiency is not directly reported ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Annual capital spending was $5.518 billion in 2023, $5.318 billion in 2024 and $4.415 billion in 2025.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects fiscal 2026 capital spending to remain below 0.05 of revenue and reported first-half capital spending below the comparable 2025 amount.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The long-run rate is set below recent organic growth because PepsiCo is already a global-scale mature company and its largest North American businesses recently produced flat-to-declining volume.
Why this confidence: Mature global category exposure ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Geographic growth rates vary widely ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Evidence for
- PFNA organic revenue declined 0.02 in 2025 and PBNA organic volume declined 0.035.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Every international segment delivered positive organic growth in second-quarter 2026, ranging from 0.04 to 0.09.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Base
low confidence$200.44
IV / share
+44.7% vs $138.54
- Explicit cash flows
- $32.61
- Terminal value
- $191.93
- Net cash
- -$24.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $200.44
95.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.0% → 4.0% → 3.5% → 3.2% → 3.0%medium
How derived: The first year uses the midpoint of management's 0.04 to 0.06 reported-growth outlook, then fades toward 0.03 as acquisition and currency contributions normalize and organic growth settles near the upper half of the current 0.02 to 0.04 range.
Why this confidence: Current-year management range ↑, First-half results support the range ↑, Acquisition and currency contributions may not persist ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Price implies: -3.1% vs our 3.7% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management maintained 2026 organic-growth guidance of 0.02 to 0.04 and reported-growth guidance of 0.04 to 0.06.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- First-half 2026 reported revenue increased 0.073, comprising 0.025 organic growth plus currency and acquisition benefits.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Organic growth slowed from 0.095 in 2023 to 0.02 in both 2024 and 2025.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin17.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the 0.163 first-half 2026 core margin, the target assumes management delivers its promised cumulative expansion through productivity, SKU reduction and supply-chain simplification without recreating the unusual 2025 impairments.
Why this confidence: Explicit three-year management objective ↑, Current core margin provides a clean starting point ↑, Recent cost inflation offset productivity ↓
Measured by
- GAAP operating profit margin, full year12.2%derived
Price implies: 12.3% vs our 17.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management targets at least 0.01 of cumulative core margin expansion over three fiscal years through automation, simplification and cost reduction.[PepsiCo Preliminary 2026 Outlook]· primary
- First-half 2026 core margin was 0.163.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 core margin was still 0.0015 below the prior-year period as operating-cost increases offset productivity and pricing.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate22.0%high
How derived: The forecast adopts management's 0.22 core annual tax-rate guidance because global minimum-tax rules have begun to reduce the benefit of PepsiCo's historically lower foreign rates.
Why this confidence: Reaffirmed current-year guidance ↑, Minimum-tax legislation may continue evolving ↓
Measured by
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
- Effective tax rate, full year19.0%reported
Evidence for
- PepsiCo reaffirmed a core annual effective tax rate of approximately 0.22 for fiscal 2026.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Reported tax rates remained between 0.19 and 0.198 during 2023 through 2025.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate27.0%medium
How derived: The model reinvests 0.27 of after-tax operating profit, reflecting capital spending below 0.05 of revenue, continuing brand and distribution investment, and a moderate growth rate that does not require a major capacity step-up.
Why this confidence: Comparable annual capital-spending history ↑, Management supplied a current capital-spending ceiling ↑, Future acquisition spending is excluded and unpredictable ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- PepsiCo spent $4.415 billion on capital projects in 2025, equal to approximately 0.047 of revenue.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Capital spending declined from $5.518 billion in 2023 to $4.415 billion in 2025, indicating scope for lower capital intensity.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The long-run rate is set at 0.025 because durable pricing, population growth and faster-growing international markets should offset mature North American categories without requiring growth above the broader nominal economy.
Why this confidence: Broad geographic and category diversification ↑, Long-run consumer and currency conditions are uncertain ↓, Terminal assumptions extend beyond management guidance ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Evidence for
- International revenue increased from approximately 0.43 of company revenue in 2023 to approximately 0.444 in 2025.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- International segments delivered second-quarter 2026 organic growth between 0.04 and 0.09.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- The company's two largest North American divisions produced only modest or negative organic growth in 2025 and the first half of 2026.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Bull
low confidence$282.00
IV / share
+103.6% vs $138.54
- Explicit cash flows
- $37.73
- Terminal value
- $268.36
- Net cash
- -$24.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $282.00
95.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth6.0% → 5.5% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0%low
How derived: The first year uses the top of management's reported-growth range and subsequent years assume affordability initiatives, brand restaging and strong international volume sustain growth above the current organic range.
Why this confidence: Strong first-half reported growth ↑, Forecast exceeds current organic guidance after year one ↓, Acquisition and currency tailwinds may reverse ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Evidence for
- Second-quarter and first-half 2026 reported revenue increased 0.064 and 0.073, respectively.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
- International beverage franchise and Asia Pacific Foods delivered second-quarter organic growth of 0.09.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's organic-growth guidance remains only 0.02 to 0.04, and first-half organic growth was 0.025.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin18.0%low
How derived: The target builds from the 0.163 first-half 2026 core margin and assumes volume recovery, SKU reductions, automation and supply-chain optimization produce expansion beyond management's minimum three-year objective.
Why this confidence: Specific productivity and simplification initiatives ↑, Target exceeds management's quantified minimum ↓, Commodity and labor costs remain volatile ↓
Measured by
- GAAP operating profit margin, full year12.2%derived
Evidence for
- PepsiCo is reducing nearly 0.20 of U.S. SKUs, closing underused facilities and accelerating automation and simplification.[PepsiCo Preliminary 2026 Outlook]· primary
- Management expects at least 0.01 of cumulative core margin expansion over three fiscal years.[PepsiCo Preliminary 2026 Outlook]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 core margin declined 0.004 year over year as operating-cost increases offset productivity savings and pricing.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes tax planning and PepsiCo's diversified foreign earnings partly offset minimum-tax rules, leaving the rate 0.01 below guidance but above the recent reported range.
Why this confidence: Multi-year history of rates below 0.20 ↑, Assumption is below current guidance ↓, International tax rules remain unsettled ↓
Measured by
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
- Effective tax rate, full year19.0%reported
Evidence for
- Foreign tax-rate differentials and incentives helped hold PepsiCo's reported tax rate to 0.19 in 2025.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expects a 0.22 core effective tax rate in 2026 and says global minimum-tax rules will increase taxes.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Reinvestment rate24.0%low
How derived: The case assumes only 0.24 of after-tax operating profit is reinvested because higher plant utilization, SKU simplification and automation allow faster sales growth while capital spending remains below 0.05 of revenue.
Why this confidence: Capital intensity has declined for two consecutive years ↑, Efficiency gains are prospective ↓, Higher growth may require additional capacity ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Capital spending fell by approximately 0.17 in 2025 while reported revenue increased 0.02.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- Management is emphasizing automation, digitalization, SKU reduction and supply-chain optimization.[PepsiCo Preliminary 2026 Outlook]· primary
Evidence against
- PepsiCo's capital spending still equaled approximately 0.047 of 2025 revenue, reflecting ownership of a substantial manufacturing and distribution network.[PepsiCo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate assumes international markets, product innovation and enduring pricing power keep PepsiCo growing near long-run nominal economic growth after the explicit forecast.
Why this confidence: International mix is rising ↑, Rate exceeds the latest organic-growth pace ↓, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Organic revenue growth, full year2.0%reported
- International revenue share, full year44.4%derived
Evidence for
- International operations supplied approximately 0.444 of 2025 revenue and continued to produce strong organic and volume growth in 2026.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Company-wide organic growth was only 0.02 in 2025 and 0.025 in the first half of 2026.[PepsiCo Q2 2026 Results]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating52 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 96% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2019 | 2.6% | -0.56 | 52.0% | 1.41B | -1.2% |
| Q1 2020 | 7.7% | -0.88 | -58.6% | 1.4B | -1.2% |
| Q1 2022 | — | -0.5 | — | 1.39B | — |
| Q1 2023 | 10.2% | -0.7 | -40.5% | 1.38B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2023 | — | 1.07 | — | 1.38B | — |
| Q1 2025 | — | -1.15 | — | 1.38B | — |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The value is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year nominal par yield for September 4, 2026, the latest completed trading day.
The value is the published five-year market beta for Nasdaq-listed PEP, measuring its historical sensitivity to broad equity-market returns.
The value is Aswath Damodaran's July 1, 2026 forward-looking implied U.S. equity risk premium based on trailing distributions with an adjusted payout.
The value is PEP's regular-session closing price on September 4, 2026, the latest completed Nasdaq trading day.
Generated 9/6/2026, 2:53:42 AM · pipeline v1.2.0