PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026
What drives PLTR's base case?
base-case thesisPalantir has gone from growing 17% in 2023 to growing 93% in its most recent quarter, and the company itself raised its full-year sales target to roughly $8.15 billion — an 82% increase. Just as striking, it turned that growth into profit: the share of each sales dollar kept as operating profit went from about 20 cents in early 2025 to about 47 cents today, and nearly all of that profit converts into cash. This case assumes the next year stays close to what management has guided, helped by $4.9 billion of already-contracted work, and then growth cools steadily as the revenue base gets several times larger. Profitability is held near today's level rather than pushed higher, since management has warned it is stepping up hiring.
What shapes the assumptions
Company raised its own full-year sales target to about $8.15 billion
FY2026 revenue guidance $8.150–8.158B, +82% YoY
Raises revenue growth
Contracted work not yet delivered doubled
Remaining performance obligations $4.9B, +103% YoY; remaining deal value $13.1B
Raises revenue growth
Profit per sales dollar more than doubled in six quarters
GAAP operating margin from 19.9% (Q1 2025) to 47.1% (Q2 2026)
Raises operating margin
Almost all operating profit already turns into cash
FY2026 adjusted FCF guidance $4.5–4.7B vs adjusted operating income $4.889–4.897B
Lowers reinvestment
Accumulated tax losses being used up as profits scale
$2.618B NOL carryforwards; full valuation allowance with possible release disclosed
Raises tax rate
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 89.3% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 35.9% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 45.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$6.2B
Diluted shares
2,568,694,000
Net cash
$2.5B
Bear
low confidence$13.35
IV / share
-92.3% vs $174.04
- Explicit cash flows
- $3.83
- Terminal value
- $8.53
- Net cash
- $0.98
- Intrinsic value / share
- $13.35
63.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — elevated dependency.
Revenue growth45.0% → 25.0% → 16.0% → 11.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the $6.156B trailing-twelve-month base and management's own FY2026 guide of $8.150–8.158B, the already-guided second half of 2026 is largely contracted, so year 1 still prints ~0.45; thereafter this case assumes the AI-budget experimentation cycle digests, TCV bookings growth of 49% (well below the 93% revenue growth) proves to be the true forward signal, and growth decays toward mid-single digits as hyperscaler and foundation-model vendors commoditize the orchestration layer.
Why this confidence: FY2026 revenue guidance and Q3 guidance anchor year 1 ↑, RPO and remaining deal value give contracted visibility into years 1-2 ↑, Five-year horizon for a business that reaccelerated from 17% to 93% growth in three years ↓, No disclosed metric distinguishes durable AI adoption from a one-time budget cycle ↓
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 TCV bookings of $3.4 billion grew only 49% year-over-year, materially slower than the 93% reported revenue growth, indicating recognized revenue is currently running ahead of new contracted demand.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- International commercial revenue grew just 26% year-over-year in Q2 2026, showing that outside the US the product is not compounding at anything like the headline rate.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- US revenue is 81% of total sales and government revenue was $990 million of the $1.935 billion quarter, concentrating the growth engine in a single market and a budget-cycle-dependent customer base.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.150–8.158 billion, implying 82% growth, its largest full-year guidance raise ever — inconsistent with an imminent sharp deceleration.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Remaining performance obligations reached $4.9 billion, up 103% year-over-year, and total remaining deal value reached $13.1 billion, up 83% — a contracted backlog that supports growth well beyond the guided year.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Operating margin38.0%medium
How derived: Q2 2026 GAAP operating margin was 47.1% after a four-quarter climb from 19.9%, but that expansion came from revenue outrunning a fixed cost base; this case assumes management's flagged Q3 hiring and product-investment ramp lands while growth slows, so the forward-deployed-engineer cost model and stock-based compensation at 14% of revenue drag the sustainable margin back to 38%.
Why this confidence: Six consecutive quarters of disclosed GAAP margin data establish the trend line ↑, Management explicitly guided to a Q3 expense ramp ↑, Terminal margin depends on pricing power a decade out that no disclosure covers ↓
Evidence for
- Management guided to a significant ramp in expenses in Q3 2026 driven by the seasonality of new-hire starts and product initiatives.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- Stock-based compensation was $466.8 million in the first half of 2026, roughly 14% of revenue and up 1.4 points sequentially, a real GAAP cost that the 62% adjusted operating margin excludes.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- GAAP operating margin expanded every quarter from 19.9% in Q1 2025 to 47.1% in Q2 2026, and adjusted operating margin reached 62%, showing structural rather than transient leverage.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: Palantir's current effective rate is near zero because a full valuation allowance sits on its US and UK deferred tax assets against $2.6B of net operating loss carryforwards, but the 10-Q itself says a release is reasonably possible; this case assumes the shield is consumed quickly at these profit levels and the company settles above the 21% federal statutory rate once state taxes and non-deductible stock-based compensation are layered on.
Why this confidence: US federal statutory rate is a known, legislated anchor ↑, Company discloses NOL balance and valuation-allowance status directly ↑, Timing of valuation-allowance release is explicitly uncertain in the filing ↓
Evidence for
- Palantir states its effective tax rate differs from the US statutory rate partly because of non-deductible stock-based compensation and other non-deductible expenses, which push the cash rate above statutory once losses are used up.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The company generated $1.062 billion of GAAP net income in Q2 2026 alone, so the $2.618 billion NOL balance is small relative to forward taxable income.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- Palantir maintained a full valuation allowance on US and UK deferred tax assets as of June 30, 2026, and its recent reported tax rate has been roughly 1.6%, far below statutory.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate24.0%low
How derived: Guided FY2026 adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7B against adjusted operating income of $4.889–4.897B implies roughly 93–96% cash conversion today, i.e. almost no reinvestment; this case raises the draw on operating profit to 24% on the view that defending share against hyperscalers requires heavier forward-deployed engineering, on-premises and sovereign-deployment infrastructure, and likely acquisitions as organic growth fades.
Why this confidence: Free cash flow and operating income guidance bound today's conversion rate precisely ↑, Company does not disclose capital expenditure separately in the release, so the split is inferred ↓, Future acquisition and infrastructure spending is speculative and unguided ↓
Evidence for
- Palantir's delivery model is people-intensive: management attributes results to its 'forward deployed engineering model' and customer-specific solutions, and flagged a Q3 expense ramp from new-hire seasonality.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 adjusted free cash flow is guided to $4.5–4.7 billion against adjusted income from operations of $4.889–4.897 billion, evidence of a genuinely capital-light model that needs little reinvestment to grow.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $1.22 billion represented a 63% margin, above the 47% GAAP operating margin, implying working capital (deferred revenue) is a source of cash rather than a use.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%medium
How derived: The perpetual rate cannot exceed the long-run nominal economy, proxied by the 4.69% 10-year Treasury yield; this case sets it at 2.0% — roughly long-run inflation only — because the bear thesis is that Palantir's platform becomes a mature, competitively contested government-and-enterprise software business with no real unit growth, consistent with international commercial revenue already growing only 26%.
Why this confidence: Bounded by an observable Treasury yield, so it cannot be set implausibly high ↑, Perpetual assumption is unobservable and no disclosure speaks to it ↓
Evidence for
- International commercial revenue grew only 26% year-over-year in Q2 2026, showing that Palantir's growth is not uniformly durable across geographies.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- The 10-year Treasury yield of 4.69% caps any defensible perpetual nominal growth rate well below it for a competitively exposed business.[FRED — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (DGS10)]· primary
Evidence against
- Total remaining deal value of $13.1 billion, up 83% year-over-year, indicates multi-year contracted commitments that argue against a business already at steady state.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Base
medium confidence$34.39
IV / share
-80.2% vs $174.04
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.98
- Terminal value
- $25.43
- Net cash
- $0.98
- Intrinsic value / share
- $34.39
73.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth60.0% → 42.0% → 30.0% → 22.0% → 16.0%medium
How derived: Management's guided Q3 ($2.162B, ~83% YoY) and the implied Q4 (~$2.42B, ~72% YoY) put the exit run-rate near 70%+, so applying that guided second half plus roughly 50–55% growth in the first half of 2027 to the $6.156B trailing base produces ~60% in year one, after which growth decays on the law of large numbers as the revenue base compounds from $8.2B toward $25B while the 103% RPO growth and $13.1B remaining deal value cushion the middle years.
Why this confidence: Year 1 is largely pinned by company-issued quarterly and full-year revenue guidance ↑, RPO up 103% and remaining deal value up 83% support years 2-3 ↑, Five-year horizon requires assuming a deceleration curve that no disclosure specifies ↓, Growth reaccelerated unexpectedly from 17% (2023) to 93% (Q2 2026), so historical extrapolation has failed before ↓
Evidence for
- Palantir raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.150–8.158 billion, implying 82% year-over-year growth, and guided Q3 2026 revenue to $2.160–2.164 billion.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Remaining performance obligations of $4.9 billion grew 103% year-over-year and total remaining deal value of $13.1 billion grew 83%, providing contracted visibility into the next several years.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- US commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year to $764 million and FY2026 US commercial revenue is guided above $3.424 billion (at least 134% growth), showing the fastest-growing segment is still accelerating.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- TCV bookings grew 49% year-over-year, materially below the 93% revenue growth, suggesting the pace of new commitments is not keeping up with recognized revenue.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- US revenue is 81% of total sales, so the growth path depends heavily on one geography and on US government budget cycles.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin48.0%high
How derived: The reported GAAP operating margin rose from 19.9% in Q1 2025 to 47.1% in Q2 2026 as revenue outgrew a largely fixed R&D and sales base, and the 62% adjusted margin shows the gap is almost entirely stock compensation; holding the target at 48% assumes stock compensation keeps shrinking as a share of revenue (offsetting the guided Q3 hiring ramp) but stops short of extrapolating the last six quarters of expansion.
Why this confidence: Six quarters of reported GAAP operating margin, plus full-year adjusted operating income guidance ↑, Target is set at roughly the already-achieved level, not an extrapolation ↑, Guided Q3 expense ramp introduces near-term noise around the level ↓
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 GAAP income from operations was $912 million on $1.935 billion of revenue, a 47% margin, and GAAP net income was $1.062 billion (55% margin, +225% YoY).[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Adjusted operating margin reached 62% in Q2 2026 and the combined growth-plus-margin 'Rule of 40' score hit 155%, the twelfth consecutive quarter of expansion.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- FY2026 adjusted income from operations is guided to $4.889–4.897 billion on $8.15 billion of revenue, a ~60% adjusted margin for the full year.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- Management guided to a significant Q3 2026 expense ramp from new-hire seasonality and product initiatives, which will pressure near-term profitability.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- Stock-based compensation rose to about 14% of revenue in Q2 2026, up 1.4 points sequentially, so the GAAP margin carries a growing non-cash burden.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate21.0%high
How derived: Palantir pays almost no cash tax today because a full valuation allowance sits against its US and UK deferred tax assets and $2.6B of loss carryforwards remain, but the 10-Q states a release is reasonably possible given recent and anticipated earnings, so the base case converges on the 21% US federal statutory rate — with state and foreign taxes roughly offset by the remaining loss shield and research credits over the forecast window.
Why this confidence: Statutory rate is a published, legislated figure ↑, Company discloses NOL balance, valuation-allowance status, and the drivers of its rate difference ↑, Exact timing of the valuation-allowance release is not specified ↓
Evidence for
- Palantir's 10-Q states that given recent and anticipated future earnings there is a reasonable possibility of releasing all or part of the valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets, which would move the reported rate toward statutory.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The US federal corporate income tax rate is 21%, a legislated statutory anchor for a company with 81% of revenue in the United States.[IRS — Corporate tax rate (IRC §11)]· primary
Evidence against
- Palantir's recently reported effective tax rate has been roughly 1.6%, far below statutory, and a full valuation allowance was still in place as of June 30, 2026.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate14.0%medium
How derived: That guidance implies roughly 93–96% of operating profit already converts to free cash flow, so Palantir is growing 80%+ without meaningfully consuming capital; the base case sets reinvestment at 14% of operating profit to allow for a normalizing deferred-revenue tailwind, some sovereign and on-premises deployment infrastructure, and modest tuck-in acquisitions as the revenue base scales past $20B.
Why this confidence: Company-guided free cash flow and operating income bracket the conversion rate for the current year ↑, Capital expenditure is not broken out in the earnings release, so the split is inferred from the FCF-to-EBIT gap ↓, Deferred-revenue working-capital tailwind may not persist at lower growth ↓
Evidence for
- FY2026 adjusted free cash flow is guided to $4.5–4.7 billion against adjusted income from operations of $4.889–4.897 billion, implying only single-digit percentage leakage to reinvestment.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $1.22 billion was a 63% margin, exceeding the 47% GAAP operating margin, indicating customer prepayments fund growth rather than consume it.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Evidence against
- Management flagged a significant Q3 expense ramp tied to new-hire seasonality and product initiatives, showing growth still requires incremental spending.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%medium
How derived: A perpetual rate must sit below the long-run nominal growth of the economy, proxied by the 4.69% 10-year Treasury; 3.5% reflects a business that by then should be a large, embedded government-and-enterprise platform with $4.9B of contracted RPO and multi-year deal structures, growing modestly faster than nominal GDP but no longer at a premium that compounds indefinitely.
Why this confidence: Anchored to an observable Treasury yield ceiling ↑, Long-duration contracted backlog supports durability ↑, Perpetual assumption lies far beyond any disclosure horizon ↓
Evidence for
- Remaining performance obligations of $4.9 billion (+103% YoY) and total remaining deal value of $13.1 billion (+83% YoY) reflect long-duration contracted relationships characteristic of an embedded platform.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- The 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 4.69% in mid-August 2026, setting the upper bound for a perpetual nominal growth assumption.[FRED — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (DGS10)]· primary
Evidence against
- International commercial revenue grew only 26% year-over-year, suggesting the platform's durable growth outside the US may be closer to ordinary software-market rates.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Bull
low confidence$75.02
IV / share
-56.9% vs $174.04
- Explicit cash flows
- $15.02
- Terminal value
- $59.02
- Net cash
- $0.98
- Intrinsic value / share
- $75.02
78.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
terminalGrowthRate of 0.045 clamped to [0, 0.04]
bull revenue growth (avg 48%) runs well above the trailing 22% trend
bull operating margin (58%) sits well above the best recent margin (47%)
Revenue growth78.0% → 58.0% → 45.0% → 33.0% → 24.0%low
How derived: Starting from a business already guided to 82% growth for 2026, this case takes seriously the CEO's stated intent to drive growth at or above the US commercial rate for the next 18 months and the fact that US commercial TCV bookings grew 153% (81% sequentially) — a leading indicator running ahead of reported revenue — so year one holds near 78% and the decay curve is far shallower, implying Palantir becomes the default enterprise AI operating layer rather than one vendor among many.
Why this confidence: Direct CEO statement of intended growth rate over the next 18 months ↑, US commercial bookings leading indicator up 153% YoY ↑, Assumes sustained hypergrowth from a $8B base for five years, historically rare ↓, Aggregate TCV bookings growth of 49% contradicts the premise ↓, No guidance exists beyond FY2026, so years 2-5 are unanchored ↓
Evidence for
- CEO Alexander Karp said on the Q2 2026 call: 'I am driving the business to grow at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months.'[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- US commercial TCV bookings were $2.132 billion in Q2 2026, up 153% year-over-year and 81% sequentially, running ahead of the 149% US commercial revenue growth.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- Growth accelerated for eight consecutive quarters, from 30.0% in Q3 2024 to 92.8% in Q2 2026, and US government revenue still grew 90% off a large base.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- Total TCV bookings grew only 49% year-over-year, far below the 93% revenue growth, indicating the aggregate order book is not compounding at the headline rate.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- International commercial revenue grew just 26% year-over-year, and US revenue is 81% of the total, so sustaining very high growth requires the US market alone to keep expanding for years.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin58.0%medium
How derived: The 15-point gap between the 62% adjusted and 47% GAAP margin is essentially stock compensation, which is a roughly fixed dollar pool being spread over revenue that nearly doubled; if revenue keeps compounding at these rates, stock compensation falls as a share of sales and the GAAP margin converges toward the adjusted level, so this case sets 58% — above today's GAAP margin but still short of the current adjusted figure.
Why this confidence: Both GAAP and adjusted margins are directly reported, bracketing the target ↑, Twelve consecutive quarters of Rule of 40 expansion establish direction ↑, Assumes stock compensation falls as a share of revenue, which it has not done in the last two quarters ↓
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin was 62% and GAAP net income margin was 55%, with net income up 225% year-over-year.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- The Rule of 40 score reached 155% in Q2 2026, a 10-point sequential increase and the twelfth consecutive quarter of expansion, showing growth and margin improving together rather than trading off.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Evidence against
- Stock-based compensation of about $265 million per quarter (roughly 14% of revenue) is excluded from the 62% adjusted margin and rose 1.4 points sequentially as a share of revenue.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Management guided to a significant Q3 2026 expense ramp from new-hire seasonality and product initiatives.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Tax rate17.0%medium
How derived: Palantir's recent effective rate has been near 1.6% because of the full valuation allowance and $2.618B of loss carryforwards, and its rate reconciliation cites foreign income taxed at different rates; this case assumes the loss shield plus research credits and the international structure keep the cash rate meaningfully below the 21% federal statutory rate across the forecast window, settling at 17%.
Why this confidence: NOL balance and valuation-allowance status disclosed directly in the 10-Q ↑, Current effective rate is observable and far below statutory ↑, Sub-statutory long-run rate depends on structuring and legislation that could change ↓
Evidence for
- Palantir maintained a full valuation allowance on US and UK deferred tax assets as of June 30, 2026, and its recently reported tax rate has been roughly 1.6%.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Palantir's effective rate reconciliation cites foreign income taxed at different rates as a driver, indicating a structure that can hold the blended rate below US statutory.[Palantir Q2 2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The US federal statutory corporate rate is 21% and 81% of Palantir's revenue is US-sourced, so a 17% long-run rate requires persistent credits or non-US structuring.[IRS — Corporate tax rate (IRC §11)]· primary
- With $1.062 billion of GAAP net income in a single quarter, the $2.618 billion NOL balance is small relative to forward taxable income and will be consumed quickly.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Reinvestment rate9.0%medium
How derived: Company guidance implies 93–96% of operating profit already becomes free cash flow while revenue grows 82%, which means growth is being funded by customer prepayments rather than capital; this case keeps reinvestment at 9% of operating profit on the view that a software platform delivered through existing forward-deployed teams and the customers' own infrastructure scales with almost no incremental capital.
Why this confidence: Guided free cash flow and operating income directly bound the current conversion rate ↑, Deferred revenue currently funds growth, observable in the FCF-above-EBIT margin ↑, Assumes near-zero reinvestment persists for five years with no capex disclosure to confirm ↓
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow was $1.22 billion, a 63% margin — higher than the 47% GAAP operating margin — showing working capital is a source of cash.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
- FY2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance of $4.5–4.7 billion sits just below adjusted operating income guidance of $4.889–4.897 billion, implying minimal reinvestment even at 82% growth.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- Management flagged a significant Q3 2026 expense ramp from new-hire seasonality and product initiatives, and the delivery model is explicitly engineer-intensive.[Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript]· primary
Terminal growth•4.0%low
How derived: The perpetual rate is capped by long-run nominal economic growth, proxied by the 4.69% 10-year Treasury; 4.5% sits just under that ceiling and reflects the bull premise that Palantir becomes embedded infrastructure across US government and enterprise — supported by contracted RPO more than doubling and US government revenue still growing 90% off a large base — so it grows at least in line with the nominal economy in perpetuity.
Why this confidence: Hard ceiling from an observable Treasury yield keeps the value bounded ↑, Set aggressively close to that ceiling, leaving little error margin ↓, Perpetual assumption is unverifiable and lies far beyond any company disclosure ↓
Clamped from 4.5% by the guardrail.
Evidence for
- Remaining performance obligations rose 103% year-over-year to $4.9 billion and remaining deal value 83% to $13.1 billion, evidence of long-duration embedded relationships.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
- US government revenue grew 90% year-over-year to $809 million, indicating institutional entrenchment rather than a purely cyclical commercial boom.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Evidence against
- A 4.5% perpetual rate sits only 19 basis points below the 4.69% 10-year Treasury yield, leaving almost no margin against the arithmetic constraint that terminal growth cannot exceed the long-run risk-free rate.[FRED — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (DGS10)]· primary
- International commercial revenue grew only 26% year-over-year, showing the platform is not yet universally entrenched outside the US.[Palantir Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1)]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating45 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 74% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The bear-to-bull range spans 179% of the base value — the outcome is highly uncertain.→ scenarios
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 30.0% | 0.17 | 198.1% | 2.46B | 5.8% |
| Q1 2025 | 39.3% | 0.12 | 125.3% | 2.55B | 6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | 48.0% | 0.21 | 254.5% | 2.56B | 6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 62.8% | 0.19 | 15.2% | 2.57B | 4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | 84.7% | 0.35 | 191.2% | 2.57B | 0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 92.8% | 0.47 | 125.5% | 2.57B | 0.2% |
Valuation history every run
Why intrinsic value changed
Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled
Market inputs researched
The 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity yield closed at 4.69% on August 12, 2026, which is the standard default-free discounting anchor for a USD-denominated equity valuation of a US-domiciled issuer.
Yahoo Finance's regression of 60 monthly PLTR returns against the market gives a 5-year beta of 1.56, which sits within the 1.52–1.77 range reported across data vendors and reflects a high-growth, long-duration software cash-flow profile.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied ERP — backed out of current index prices and expected cash flows rather than historical averages — stood at 4.23% over the US Treasury bond rate at the start of 2026, which is the appropriate market-priced premium to pair with a current Treasury yield.
Palantir Class A common stock closed at $171.04 on August 12, 2026, the last completed trading session before this valuation date, used as the market reference price against the model's per-share output.
Palantir carries no debt and $9.4 billion of cash and investments against a business generating over $1 billion of quarterly GAAP net income, so its synthetic credit profile is top investment grade; adding roughly 80 basis points of high-grade spread — inside the ~121 basis point Moody's Aaa spread over the 10-year Treasury, which reflects 20-year-plus maturities — to the 4.69% risk-free rate gives a 5.5% pre-tax borrowing cost.
Generated 8/13/2026, 1:43:33 PM · pipeline v1.1.0