Palantir Technologies Inc.
Nasdaq: PLTR·Aventura, Florida·CIK 0001321655
- Price
- $190.04
- Base IV
- $34.39
- Your value
- $34.39
- -81.9%
Valuation snapshot
Price is above even the bull case. Price as of Oct 2, 2026 · Valuation Aug 13, 2026.
Track record
Reported financials are not available yet.
Why the gap?
At $190.04 the market is pricing Palantir Technologies Inc. as if revenue grows 92.8% a year. This valuation assumes it grows 34.0% a year. That single disagreement accounts for most of the distance between the two numbers — which makes it the first thing worth auditing.
Implied by price
+92.8%
revenue growth a year, holding everything else researched
Assumed here
+34.0%
researched base case, grounded in filings and guidance
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might expect, not its actual view.
Your valuation
Four judgments stand between the filing and a number. Audit them one at a time and leave with a valuation that is yours.
- 01 Revenue growth60.0%
- 02 Operating margin48.0%
- 03 Risk and beta1.56
- 04 Long-run growth3.5%
About 4 minutes · no account needed
What drives the base case
All three cases →Palantir has gone from growing 17% in 2023 to growing 93% in its most recent quarter, and the company itself raised its full-year sales target to roughly $8.15 billion — an 82% increase. Just as striking, it turned that growth into profit: the share of each sales dollar kept as operating profit went from about 20 cents in early 2025 to about 47 cents today, and nearly all of that profit converts into cash. This case assumes the next year stays close to what management has guided, helped by $4.9 billion of already-contracted work, and then growth cools steadily as the revenue base gets several times larger. Profitability is held near today's level rather than pushed higher, since management has warned it is stepping up hiring.
What shapes the assumptions
No structured value drivers are attached to this valuation yet.
How confident is this estimate?
Quality checksSome of any gap to the price is model uncertainty rather than real disagreement. Start with the weakest components.
- Scenario dispersion1.0
- Terminal-value dependency2.6
- Historical stability7.2
- Margin predictability2.5
Why the number moved
Sequential bridgeThe base case moved from $29.18 to $34.39 as filings, assumptions, and market inputs changed.
- Revenue forecast—
- Operating-margin assumption—
- Tax-rate assumption—
- Reinvestment assumption—
- Terminal-growth assumption—
Base estimate
$34.39 -81.9%