RJET
REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Below base casePrice is between the bear and base cases.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 14, 2026
What drives RJET's base case?
base-case thesisAlmost all of Republic's revenue is paid by three big airlines under fixed-fee contracts, so its sales track how many hours its 300-plus Embraer jets fly rather than how many tickets get sold. The reported doubling of revenue came from merging with Mesa in November 2025; from here the growth engine is more mundane — flying the existing fleet harder, which already lifted flying hours 7% between the March and June quarters, plus the 26 aircraft it has reserved for delivery in 2028 to 2030. Management raised its 2026 outlook to more than $2.1 billion of revenue and about 880,000 flying hours, and this case assumes that momentum settles into mid-single-digit growth that fades toward inflation. Profitability holds near the roughly 12% earned in the last two quarters as merger clean-up costs fade but contract rate resets stop margins from climbing, and steady spending on new and overhauled aircraft absorbs a bit under half of after-tax profit.
What shapes the assumptions
26 secured aircraft delivery positions for 2028-2030
Fleet size (314 aircraft, 275 under capacity purchase agreements)
Raises revenue growth
Higher scheduled utilization lifted block hours 7% sequentially in Q2 2026
Block hour production (~880,000 guided for 2026)
Raises revenue growth
Completion factor recovered from about 94% to 98% quarter over quarter
Operating margin (12.2% in Q2 FY2026 actuals)
Raises operating margin
Aircraft purchases financed at roughly $21 million per jet
Capital expenditure and new borrowings ($64.4 million for three aircraft in Q1 2026)
Raises reinvestment
Fixed-fee contracts escalate with costs, not passenger fares
Long-run revenue per block hour
Informs terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows -3.2% a year. Over the last 7 years it grew 17.5% a year — so the price assumes far less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 8.5% operating margin, against the 11.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 43.0/10 (Fragile) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$2.1B
Diluted shares
46,173,160
Net cash
-$56.3M
Bear
low confidence$13.43
IV / share
-33.9% vs $20.33
- Explicit cash flows
- $5.21
- Terminal value
- $9.44
- Net cash
- -$1.22
- Intrinsic value / share
- $13.43
70.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth2.0% → 0.5% → -1.5% → 0.5% → 1.0%medium
How derived: Starting from the fact that essentially all of the 39%-49% year-over-year growth in the FY2026 quarters shown in the actuals came from the November 2025 Mesa combination rather than organic demand, this case assumes the step-up does not repeat, that only contractual rate escalators carry 2027-2028, and that the Delta capacity purchase agreement (average expiry 2028) is partially not renewed, shrinking block hours before a flat rebuild.
Why this confidence: Revenue is contractual fixed-fee flying, so near-term levels are unusually visible ↑, Company gave explicit 2026 block-hour and revenue guidance ↑, Assumed Delta non-renewal in 2028 is a judgment, not a disclosed event ↓, Five-year horizon spans two contract renewal cycles ↓
Evidence for
- Average partner agreement expirations are 2030 for American, 2028 for Delta and 2034 for United, so a Delta non-renewal falls inside the forecast window.[Republic Airways CPA portfolio disclosure]· secondary
- The FY2026 revenue jump is merger-driven: the merger closed 25 November 2025 and Republic shareholders took ~88% of the combined company, so 2026 is the first full year of combined revenue and the comparison base resets.[Republic Airways and Mesa Air Group Complete Merger]· primary
- Q1 FY2026 completion factor was only about 94% before recovering to 98% in Q2, showing block-hour production can slip on operational or weather disruption.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to greater than $2.1 billion and block hours to ~880,000, above the prior >$2.0 billion and 865,000, which argues against imminent contraction.[RJET Q2 2026 raised guidance]· primary
- Mesa Airlines signed a new 10-year United capacity purchase agreement in connection with the merger, locking in a block of flying well past the forecast horizon.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
Operating margin8.5%medium
How derived: The actuals show operating margin of about 12.3% in Q1 FY2026 and 12.2% in Q2 FY2026 against a GAAP 10.3% in the reported Q2 release; this case takes the lower GAAP figure and cuts it further to 8.5% on the view that rate resets at contract renewal, pilot and maintenance cost inflation, and the lingering cost of running two operating certificates give back most of the merger's scale benefit.
Why this confidence: Two consecutive reported quarters of margin data in the actuals ↑, Cost-plus contract structure caps the plausible range ↑, Wide gap between GAAP and adjusted margin makes the true run-rate ambiguous ↓, Merger integration costs are still in the numbers ↓
Evidence for
- Reported Q2 2026 GAAP operating income of $58.7 million on $571.1 million of revenue is a 10.3% margin, well below the $72.3 million adjusted figure, showing recurring charges compress reported profitability.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- The actuals include a Q3 FY2025 quarter at a negative 10.1% operating margin, demonstrating the cost base can swamp revenue in a weak period.[RJET FY2025 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDAR guidance of $395-405 million on more than $2.1 billion of revenue implies a high-teens EBITDAR margin, a cushion above an 8.5% operating margin.[RJET raised 2026 guidance]· primary
- Capacity purchase agreements are cost-plus structures that pass many cost increases through to the major-airline partner, limiting margin downside.[Regional airline CPA economics overview]· secondary
Tax rate28.5%high
How derived: The company disclosed an effective tax rate of 28.5% in Q1 FY2026 and 28.3% year-to-date through Q2 FY2026, up from 26.0% in 2025, and this case holds the higher recent rate flat on the view that state apportionment across many operating states and the exhaustion of Mesa's carryforward attributes keep the rate at the top of the recent range.
Why this confidence: Directly disclosed effective rate in two consecutive 10-Qs ↑, US federal statutory rate anchors the long-run range ↑, Post-merger deferred tax attributes could shift the rate ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 income before taxes of $37.6 million carried $10.7 million of tax expense, an effective rate of about 28.5%.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The company applied a 28.1% effective rate in Q2 2026 and 28.3% year-to-date.[RJET Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective rate was 26.0% in 2025, showing the 28%-plus level is recent and may not persist.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q tax note]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: Against 2026 capital expenditure guidance of roughly $90 million and $64.4 million of new borrowings taken for just three aircraft deliveries in Q1, this case assumes half of after-tax operating profit is consumed by reinvestment because heavy engine and airframe maintenance on the older E170 fleet plus mandatory debt-funded fleet renewal continue even when block hours are flat, so capital goes in without buying growth.
Why this confidence: One year of explicit capex guidance is disclosed ↑, No published multi-year capex plan beyond 2026 ↓, Split between partner-funded and company-funded aircraft can shift the number sharply ↓, Maintenance capex is lumpy for an aging E170 fleet ↓
Evidence for
- Republic took $64.4 million of new borrowings for three aircraft deliveries in Q1 2026, roughly $21 million of capital per incremental aircraft.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Of 275 aircraft in active service, 93 are owned outright and 75 are debt-financed, so Republic carries the ownership and overhaul burden on most of its flying.[RJET Q2 FY2026 fleet disclosure]· primary
Evidence against
- Guided 2026 capital expenditure is only about $90 million on more than $2.1 billion of revenue, a very light cash capital burden relative to earnings.[RJET raised 2026 guidance]· primary
- 107 of the 275 aircraft in service are partner-controlled, meaning the major airline rather than Republic funds that capital.[RJET Q2 FY2026 fleet disclosure]· primary
Terminal growth1.5%medium
How derived: Long-run growth for a purely contracted regional operator cannot exceed the escalators embedded in its capacity purchase agreements, and this case sets terminal growth at 1.5% — below long-run US inflation — because a shrinking 50-to-76-seat regional market and repeated rate resets with three powerful counterparties leave Republic unable to fully recover cost inflation.
Why this confidence: Bounded by the risk-free rate and by observable contract escalators ↑, Terminal value assumptions are inherently unverifiable ↓, Structural direction of the US regional market is contested ↓
Evidence for
- Republic derives essentially all revenue from fixed-fee agreements with American, Delta and United, so it has no independent pricing power over the end passenger.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
- 1.5% is far below the 4.65% 10-year Treasury yield, satisfying the constraint that terminal growth stay under the risk-free rate.[Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates]· primary
Evidence against
- The combined company operates the world's largest Embraer E-Jet fleet with over 1,300 daily departures, a scale position that should at least keep pace with inflation over time.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
Base
low confidence$28.09
IV / share
+38.2% vs $20.33
- Explicit cash flows
- $9.24
- Terminal value
- $20.07
- Net cash
- -$1.22
- Intrinsic value / share
- $28.09
71.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0% → 3.5% → 3.0%medium
How derived: Beginning from guided 2026 revenue of more than $2.1 billion on about 880,000 block hours, this case assumes the post-merger year grows mid-single-digit as the single-certificate integration lifts utilization and contract escalators add 2-3%, then steps down toward the low single digits as the 26 secured delivery positions spread across 2028-2030 add roughly 8% of fleet capacity over three years.
Why this confidence: Company guidance for 2026 revenue and block hours is explicit ↑, Delivery positions for 2028-2030 are already secured ↑, No company guidance exists beyond fiscal 2026 ↓, Contract renewal outcomes in 2028 are unknown ↓
Evidence for
- Republic has secured 26 aircraft delivery positions distributed across 2028, 2029 and 2030, giving concrete capacity growth inside the forecast window.[RJET Q2 2026 investor presentation coverage]· secondary
- Block hour production rose 7% sequentially from Q1 to Q2 2026 on higher scheduled utilization, showing organic capacity gains from existing aircraft.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- Mesa Airlines operates for United under a new 10-year capacity purchase agreement signed at the merger, securing a growing block of contracted flying.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
Evidence against
- The Delta relationship averages a 2028 expiry, so a portion of contracted flying must be re-won mid-forecast.[Republic Airways CPA portfolio disclosure]· secondary
- Of a 75-aircraft Embraer E175 commitment, five had already been cancelled as of 30 September 2025, showing delivery positions do not automatically convert into flying.[Republic/Mesa S-4 registration statement]· primary
Operating margin11.5%medium
How derived: The actuals show operating margins of 12.3% and 12.2% in the two most recent quarters against a 10.3% GAAP figure in the Q2 release, and this case settles at 11.5% by assuming the merger integration charges that separate the GAAP and adjusted numbers roll off while renewal-cycle rate concessions prevent the margin from holding at the current adjusted level.
Why this confidence: Two recent quarters of consistent ~12% margins in the actuals ↑, 2026 adjusted EBITDAR guidance corroborates the profitability level ↑, GAAP-versus-adjusted gap leaves the sustainable level uncertain ↓, Margin must be held for five years across a contract renewal ↓
Evidence for
- Adjusted operating income of $72.3 million on $571.1 million of Q2 2026 revenue is a 12.7% adjusted margin, bracketing the 11.5% assumption from above.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- Completion factor improved from about 94% in Q1 to 98% in Q2 2026, and higher completion directly raises margin on a largely fixed cost base.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- The GAAP operating margin in Q2 2026 was only 10.3%, below the 11.5% assumed, and the gap depends on integration charges ending.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- The quarterly actuals include a Q3 FY2025 operating margin of negative 10.1%, evidence that seasonal or disrupted quarters can be deeply unprofitable.[RJET FY2025 results release]· primary
Tax rate27.0%high
How derived: The company reported a 28.3% effective rate year-to-date through Q2 FY2026 versus 26.0% for 2025, and this case uses 27% as the midpoint of that two-year observed range on the view that the 21% federal statutory rate plus multi-state apportionment is the durable long-run structure.
Why this confidence: Effective rate disclosed directly in consecutive quarterly filings ↑, Two-year observed range is narrow (26.0%-28.5%) ↑, Merger-related tax attributes add some uncertainty ↓
Evidence for
- Year-to-date 2026 effective tax rate was 28.3% and 2025 was 26.0%, placing 27% squarely inside the observed range.[RJET Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- Q2 2026 net income of $31.2 million on $0.68 per diluted share is consistent with a high-20s effective rate on reported pre-tax income.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Post-merger deferred tax attributes inherited from Mesa could lower the cash and effective rate below the recent reported level.[Republic/Mesa S-4 registration statement]· primary
Reinvestment rate42.0%low
How derived: 2026 guided capital expenditure of about $90 million is modest relative to earnings, but this case lifts reinvestment to 42% of after-tax operating profit because taking the 26 secured 2028-2030 E175 delivery positions at roughly $21 million of financed capital each — the rate implied by the $64.4 million of borrowings for three Q1 2026 aircraft — plus routine overhauls is what funds the mid-single-digit growth path.
Why this confidence: 2026 capex is explicitly guided ↑, Committed delivery positions give visibility on the shape of future spend ↑, No disclosed capex figures beyond 2026 ↓, Aircraft can be partner-financed, which would change the number materially ↓
Evidence for
- New borrowings of $64.4 million funded three aircraft deliveries in Q1 2026, indicating meaningful capital per incremental jet.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- 26 aircraft delivery positions across 2028-2030 represent a committed multi-year capital programme.[RJET Q2 2026 investor presentation coverage]· secondary
Evidence against
- The company plans to repay roughly $165 million of debt in 2026 and cut adjusted net leverage from 2.9x to 2.4x, implying free cash generation well in excess of reinvestment needs today.[RJET Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q and results]· primary
- 107 of 275 aircraft in service are partner-controlled, so a large share of fleet capital is supplied by the major airlines rather than Republic.[RJET Q2 FY2026 fleet disclosure]· primary
Terminal growth2.4%medium
How derived: Since Republic's revenue is fee-per-block-hour rather than fare-driven, long-run growth is essentially the escalation built into its contracts plus modest fleet replacement, so this case uses 2.4% — roughly long-run US inflation and well below the 4.65% 10-year Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Bounded below the observed risk-free rate ↑, Contract escalators give an economic anchor ↑, Perpetual assumptions cannot be verified against disclosure ↓
Evidence for
- Republic supports American, Delta and United under existing capacity purchase agreements, a structure whose rates escalate with cost indices rather than passenger demand.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
- 2.4% sits well below the 10-year Treasury yield of about 4.65%, satisfying the standard perpetual-growth constraint.[Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates]· primary
Evidence against
- With Delta's agreements averaging a 2028 expiry, perpetual inflation-linked escalation is not contractually assured past the near term.[Republic Airways CPA portfolio disclosure]· secondary
Bull
low confidence$48.07
IV / share
+136.5% vs $20.33
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.47
- Terminal value
- $34.82
- Net cash
- -$1.22
- Intrinsic value / share
- $48.07
72.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth9.0% → 8.0% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%medium
How derived: Guided 2026 revenue was raised twice to more than $2.1 billion on about 880,000 block hours while Q2 block hours rose 7% sequentially and completion factor hit 98%; this case extends that operating momentum by assuming the ahead-of-schedule Mesa integration onto a single certificate unlocks a further step up in utilization, all 26 of the 2028-2030 delivery positions are taken and supplemented with new E175 orders as majors compete for scarce regional lift.
Why this confidence: Two guidance raises inside 2026 evidence real momentum ↑, Delivery positions and the 10-year United contract are disclosed facts ↑, Growth above the secured delivery schedule requires unannounced new orders ↓, Five-year horizon with no company guidance past 2026 ↓
Evidence for
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance twice, to more than $2.1 billion of revenue and ~880,000 block hours from >$2.0 billion and 865,000.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- Mesa Airlines flies for United under a new 10-year capacity purchase agreement, and the combined group runs the world's largest E-Jet fleet with over 1,300 daily departures.[Republic/Mesa merger completion release]· primary
- Peer SkyWest is targeting more than 300 E175s by end-2028, evidence that major-airline demand for large regional jets is expanding, not shrinking.[SkyWest company overview]· secondary
Evidence against
- Only 26 delivery positions are secured for 2028-2030 against a 314-aircraft fleet, capping contractually visible fleet growth at roughly 8% over three years.[RJET Q2 2026 investor presentation coverage]· secondary
- Five of the 75 committed Embraer E175 aircraft had already been cancelled as of 30 September 2025.[Republic/Mesa S-4 registration statement]· primary
Operating margin14.5%low
How derived: Adjusted operating income of $72.3 million on $571.1 million of Q2 2026 revenue is a 12.7% adjusted margin and full-year adjusted EBITDAR guidance of $395-405 million on more than $2.1 billion implies a high-teens EBITDAR margin; this case reaches 14.5% by assuming single-certificate integration, a 98%-plus completion factor and scale over a largely fixed cost base convert the merger synergies into durable margin, in line with what larger owned-fleet regional operators earn.
Why this confidence: EBITDAR guidance provides a hard upper bound on plausible margin ↑, Assumed level exceeds every margin actually reported in the given actuals ↓, Depends on synergy capture that has not yet shown in GAAP results ↓, Cost-plus contracts structurally cap margin expansion ↓
Evidence for
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDAR guidance of $395-405 million on more than $2.1 billion of revenue implies a high-teens EBITDAR margin, leaving room for a mid-teens operating margin once depreciation and rent are deducted.[RJET raised 2026 guidance]· primary
- Owning 93 aircraft outright and debt-financing 75 more means aircraft costs land in depreciation rather than rent, structurally lifting the reported operating margin.[RJET Q2 FY2026 fleet disclosure]· primary
Evidence against
- The best margin actually reported in the recent quarterly actuals is about 12.3%, and GAAP Q2 2026 was 10.3%, both below the 14.5% assumed.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
- Cost-plus capacity purchase agreements limit upside as well as downside, because outperformance on cost is shared with or reset by the airline partner.[Regional airline CPA economics overview]· secondary
Tax rate25.0%medium
How derived: The company's 2025 effective tax rate was 26.0% versus 28.3% year-to-date 2026, and this case uses 25% on the view that as merger-related non-deductible items wash out the rate converges toward the 21% federal statutory rate plus a lower blended state burden.
Why this confidence: Both the 2025 and 2026 effective rates are directly disclosed ↑, Statutory rate anchors the plausible floor ↑, Assumes a reversal of the most recent upward trend ↓
Evidence for
- The 2025 effective tax rate was 26.0%, showing the company has recently operated below the 2026 year-to-date level.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The US federal statutory corporate rate of 21% sets a floor well below the assumed 25%, leaving room for the effective rate to fall as one-off merger items lapse.[Internal Revenue Bulletin 2026-16]· primary
Evidence against
- The most recent disclosed effective rates were 28.5% in Q1 2026 and 28.1% in Q2 2026, trending up rather than down.[RJET Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate36.0%low
How derived: Guided 2026 capital expenditure is only about $90 million against more than $2.1 billion of revenue, and this case holds reinvestment to 36% of after-tax operating profit because 107 of the 275 aircraft in service are partner-controlled and 31 owned aircraft are leased out to American, so incremental growth in this case comes disproportionately from utilization and partner-supplied aircraft rather than Republic's own balance sheet.
Why this confidence: Fleet ownership split is explicitly disclosed ↑, 2026 capex is guided ↑, Assumes a capital-light growth mix that is not contractually committed ↓, No multi-year capex disclosure to test the assumption against ↓
Evidence for
- Of 275 aircraft in active service, 107 are partner-controlled, so the airline partners fund a large slice of the operating fleet.[RJET Q2 FY2026 fleet disclosure]· primary
- Guided 2026 capital expenditure of about $90 million is small relative to guided adjusted EBITDAR of $395-405 million, and the company still plans to repay roughly $165 million of debt in the year.[RJET raised 2026 guidance]· primary
- Block hours rose 7% sequentially in Q2 2026 purely from higher scheduled utilization and reliability, growth that required no new aircraft.[RJET Q2 2026 earnings release]· primary
Evidence against
- Republic borrowed $64.4 million for just three new aircraft in Q1 2026, so incremental fleet growth is genuinely capital-hungry when it comes from owned jets.[RJET Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q]· primary
- The company holds a commitment for 75 E175 aircraft of which 38 had been delivered as of 30 September 2025, leaving a substantial purchase obligation outstanding.[Republic/Mesa S-4 registration statement]· primary
Terminal growth2.8%medium
How derived: Contract escalators alone support roughly inflation-level growth, and this case adds a small increment to 2.8% for continued share gain in a consolidating regional market where Republic now operates the largest E-Jet fleet, while still staying far below the 4.65% 10-year Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Constrained below the observed risk-free rate ↑, Industry consolidation is a documented, not speculative, fact ↑, Perpetual assumptions cannot be checked against any disclosure ↓
Evidence for
- The merger created the second-largest US regional airline operating the world's largest Embraer E-Jet fleet, a consolidation that supports durable share gains.[Republic/Mesa combine into second-largest US regional airline]· secondary
- 2.8% remains well below the 4.65% 10-year Treasury yield, keeping the perpetual growth assumption economically admissible.[Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates]· primary
Evidence against
- Because revenue is set by fixed-fee contracts with escalators rather than by fares, sustained growth above inflation requires perpetual fleet expansion that is not contracted beyond 2030.[RJET Q2 2026 investor presentation coverage]· secondary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating43 / 100 · Fragile
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 71% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | -9.0% | -0.37 | -73.9% | 40.94M | 12.5% |
| Q3 2024 | 0.5% | 0.18 | — | 41.32M | — |
| Q4 2024 | 606.7% | -0.71 | -89.6% | 41.33M | 1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | -21.3% | 0.12 | -33.3% | 41.87M | 1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 39.0% | -0.77 | — | 46.05M | — |
| Q2 2026 | 48.6% | 0.62 | — | 46.17M | — |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield was about 4.65% in mid-August 2026, and this is used unadjusted as the nominal risk-free rate matched to a long-horizon USD cash-flow forecast.
RJET has traded only since the November 2025 merger so no five-year regression beta exists (Yahoo Finance shows the 5Y monthly beta as unavailable), so this uses closest pure-play comparable SkyWest's 1.62 and trims it slightly to 1.55 because Republic's revenue is entirely fixed-fee contracted flying with no prorate or charter exposure, partly offset by Republic's 2.4x adjusted net leverage.
Damodaran's forward-looking implied ERP for the S&P 500 at the start of 2026 was 4.23% over the US Treasury bond rate, and it is used as published rather than substituting a historical average.
RJET last traded at $20.58 on 10 August 2026 within a 52-week range of $15.37-$26.70, and the latest close is used directly as the market reference price.
Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield was around 6.1% in 2026 and Republic's borrowings are sub-investment-grade but secured on marketable Embraer E175 collateral (it drew $64.4 million of new borrowings for three aircraft in Q1 2026), so a pre-tax cost of debt of 6.5% — Baa plus a modest secured-issuer spread — is applied.
Generated 8/14/2026, 3:55:56 PM · pipeline v1.1.0