TJX
TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives TJX's base case?
base-case thesisTJX's first-half sales growth reflects both healthy established-store demand and new locations. The central case assumes those two engines continue, helped by faster store openings, but gradually slow as the company becomes larger. Recent merchandise gains offset wage pressure, leaving profit per sales dollar broadly stable.
What shapes the assumptions
First-half comparable sales growth of 0.05
Sales growth from established stores and online sites
Raises revenue growth
Planned store growth of 0.04 from FY2028
New-location contribution to sales
Raises revenue growth
Adjusted first-half pretax profitability of 0.119
Underlying profit generated per sales dollar
Informs operating margin
FY2027 planned capital spending of 2.2 to 2.3 billion dollars
Investment required to support store and infrastructure growth
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 13.5% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 7.6% a year — so the price assumes more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 17.2% operating margin, against the 12.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 61.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Annual comparable sales growth
This measures demand at established stores and sites, isolating the most repeatable component of TJX's sales growth.
5.0%
reported2. Annual operating profit as a share of sales
This shows how much profit TJX retains from merchandise sales before interest and taxes.
11.9%
derived3. Global stores at fiscal year-end
The store count measures TJX's physical selling capacity and progress toward its stated long-term network opportunity.
5,214
reported4. Annual capital spending as a share of sales
This tracks the cash investment needed for stores, renovations, distribution facilities, and technology relative to TJX's scale.
3.2%
derived5. Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix
This measures the contribution from HomeGoods, Canada, and International, whose growth and profitability determine how effectively TJX diversifies beyond its largest segment.
39.4%
derivedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$62.4B
Diluted shares
1,117,000,000
Net cash
$3.1B
Bear
low confidence$79.67
IV / share
-39.7% vs $132.19
- Explicit cash flows
- $16.55
- Terminal value
- $60.31
- Net cash
- $2.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $79.67
75.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth4.5% → 4.0% → 3.5% → 3.0% → 2.8%medium
How derived: First-half sales grew 0.07, but Marmaxx slowed to 0.01 comparable growth in Q2 and management expects full-year comparable growth of only 0.03 to 0.04, so this path assumes weaker core demand and progressively slower expansion.
Why this confidence: Management's near-term comparable-sales guidance ↑, Five-year consumer-demand uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Evidence for
- Marmaxx, TJX's largest segment, produced only 0.01 comparable-sales growth in Q2 FY2027, versus 0.03 a year earlier.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half FY2027 sales grew 0.07 and management plans to accelerate store growth to 0.04 beginning in FY2028.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Operating margin11.2%medium
How derived: Fiscal 2026 operating profit was about 0.119 of sales and first-half FY2027 adjusted pretax profitability was 0.119, but the bear case removes recent merchandise gains and assumes wage and payroll pressure returns profitability toward the fiscal 2025 level.
Why this confidence: Three years of reported cost ratios ↑, Tariff refunds and litigation benefits distort recent comparisons ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Annual operating profit as a share of sales11.9%derived
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Evidence for
- Adjusted Q2 FY2027 selling and administrative costs rose to 0.197 of sales because of incremental store wage and payroll costs.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Adjusted Q2 FY2027 pretax profitability improved by 0.005 of sales to 0.119, driven by stronger merchandise profitability.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate25.5%medium
How derived: The reported rate was 0.247 in fiscal 2026 and Q2 FY2027, and this case adds a modest cushion for the nondeductible items, withholding taxes, and multijurisdictional exposure identified by TJX.
Why this confidence: Stable recent annual effective rates ↑, Tax credits and jurisdictional changes ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- TJX said Q2 FY2027's rate rose because of more nondeductible items and foreign withholding taxes.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The first-half FY2027 effective rate was only 0.237 because of tax-credit and share-compensation benefits.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate22.0%low
How derived: Net capital spending consumed about 0.13 of fiscal 2026 after-tax operating profit before working-capital needs, and the bear case raises that burden to 0.22 while assuming management curtails expansion as sales slow.
Why this confidence: Reported capital spending and depreciation ↑, Future working-capital requirements are not guided ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual capital spending as a share of sales3.2%derived
Evidence for
- Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures were 1.957 billion dollars and depreciation and amortization were 1.247 billion dollars, leaving a modest net capital requirement relative to profit.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- TJX expects FY2027 capital expenditures of 2.2 to 2.3 billion dollars and plans faster store expansion beginning in FY2028.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%medium
How derived: The rate is held to the Federal Reserve's 0.02 long-run inflation objective because this case assumes TJX eventually grows only with prices and gains no lasting real share.
Why this confidence: Official long-run inflation objective ↑, Terminal-period competitive position is inherently uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
Evidence for
- The Federal Reserve reaffirmed a 0.02 longer-run inflation objective.[Federal Reserve longer-run goals]· primary
Evidence against
- TJX increased its long-term store target to 7,500 from 5,285 stores at the end of Q2 FY2027.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Base
low confidence$93.13
IV / share
-29.5% vs $132.19
- Explicit cash flows
- $17.49
- Terminal value
- $72.84
- Net cash
- $2.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $93.13
78.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth6.0% → 5.5% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0%medium
How derived: First-half FY2027 sales grew 0.07 from 0.05 comparable growth plus roughly 0.02 non-comparable growth, so the central path begins at 0.06 and gradually moderates as the store base becomes larger.
Why this confidence: Current sales bridge separates comparable and new-store growth ↑, Store acceleration starts beyond current guidance year ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Price implies: 13.5% vs our 5.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- First-half FY2027 sales grew 0.07, comprising 0.05 comparable growth and 0.02 non-comparable growth.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's full-year comparable-sales outlook is 0.03 to 0.04, below the first-half rate.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Operating margin12.0%medium
How derived: Fiscal 2026 operating profit was about 0.119 of sales and management now guides to adjusted FY2027 pretax profitability of 0.12 to 0.121, so the base case holds underlying operating profitability near 0.12.
Why this confidence: Management guidance aligns with the latest full-year result ↑, Temporary refunds and other items complicate reported margins ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Annual operating profit as a share of sales11.9%derived
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Price implies: 17.2% vs our 12.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management increased adjusted FY2027 pretax profitability guidance to 0.12 to 0.121.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Incremental store wages and payroll increased the adjusted Q2 selling and administrative cost ratio.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate24.7%high
How derived: The base case carries forward fiscal 2026's 0.247 effective rate, which also matches Q2 FY2027 and sits close to the prior two years' 0.25 rates.
Why this confidence: Three-year annual rate stability ↑, Quarterly tax-credit volatility ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- TJX reported an effective rate of 0.247 in fiscal 2026 and again in Q2 FY2027.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half FY2027's effective rate was lower at 0.237 because of tax credits and share-based compensation benefits.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate27.0%low
How derived: Reported net capital spending was about 0.13 of fiscal 2026 after-tax operating profit before working capital, and the base case raises total reinvestment to 0.27 to fund planned 0.04 store growth, renovations, distribution capacity, and technology.
Why this confidence: Explicit store and capital-spending plans ↑, No company guidance for working-capital reinvestment ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual capital spending as a share of sales3.2%derived
Evidence for
- TJX plans to increase store growth to 0.04 beginning in FY2028 and raised its long-term store target to 7,500.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Only 185 million dollars of fiscal 2026 capital expenditure was for new stores, while most spending covered renovations, offices, distribution, and systems.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: The base rate adds 0.005 of lasting real growth to the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective, reflecting TJX's store runway but allowing substantial maturation.
Why this confidence: Store capacity provides a company-specific growth runway ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
Evidence for
- TJX sees capacity for 7,500 stores in existing banners and countries, compared with 5,285 at Q2 FY2027.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective and median longer-run real economic growth projection are each 0.02, limiting sustainable mature nominal growth.[Federal Reserve June 2026 projections]· primary
Bull
low confidence$109.31
IV / share
-17.3% vs $132.19
- Explicit cash flows
- $18.29
- Terminal value
- $88.21
- Net cash
- $2.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $109.31
80.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth7.5% → 7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0% → 5.5%low
How derived: First-half sales grew 0.07 while HomeGoods, Canada, and International delivered Q2 comparable growth of 0.06 to 0.07, so this path assumes those banners sustain momentum and the planned store acceleration lifts total growth above the recent company rate.
Why this confidence: Broad strength outside Marmaxx and explicit store acceleration ↑, Requires sustained growth above management's current outlook ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Evidence for
- Q2 comparable sales grew 0.07 at HomeGoods, 0.06 in Canada, and 0.07 internationally, while management plans 0.04 annual store growth from FY2028.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Marmaxx generated only 0.01 Q2 comparable-sales growth and still represented approximately 0.60 of first-half sales.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin12.8%low
How derived: Adjusted Q2 profitability improved by 0.005 of sales as merchandise profitability rose, so the bull case assumes purchasing scale, lower shrink, and improving International profitability lift the long-run operating level to 0.128.
Why this confidence: Recent merchandise and international profitability improvement ↑, Target materially exceeds current underlying profitability ↓
Measured by
- Annual comparable sales growth5.0%reported
- Annual operating profit as a share of sales11.9%derived
- Annual non-Marmaxx sales mix39.4%derived
Evidence for
- Adjusted Q2 FY2027 gross profitability improved by 0.007 of sales, driven by stronger merchandise profitability.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
- TJX International's fiscal 2026 segment profitability increased to 0.07 from 0.059.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Adjusted Q2 selling and administrative costs increased because of incremental store wages and payroll.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Tax rate24.0%low
How derived: First-half FY2027's effective rate was 0.237 due to tax credits and share-compensation benefits, so the bull case rounds that result to 0.24 while allowing some benefits to persist.
Why this confidence: Current-year tax benefits are directly reported ↑, Benefits may not recur over five years ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- TJX's first-half FY2027 effective tax rate was 0.237, helped by federal tax credits and share-based compensation.[TJX Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- The fiscal 2026 and Q2 FY2027 effective rates were both 0.247, and the two preceding annual rates were 0.25.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate32.0%low
How derived: The bull path requires more investment than the base case, so 0.32 of after-tax operating profit is reinvested to fund 0.04 store growth, a 7,500-store network, renovations, distribution capacity, and systems.
Why this confidence: Explicit higher store-growth target ↑, No disclosed long-run investment-to-profit target ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
- Annual capital spending as a share of sales3.2%derived
Evidence for
- TJX plans 0.04 store growth beginning in FY2028 and sees a long-term opportunity for 7,500 stores in its current markets.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Fiscal 2026 net capital spending after depreciation was only 710 million dollars, about 0.13 of after-tax operating profit before working-capital changes.[TJX FY2026 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The rate combines the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective with 0.01 lasting real growth, assuming TJX retains share gains and continues measured international and store expansion after the explicit forecast.
Why this confidence: Large disclosed store runway ↑, Assumes decades of continued market-share gains ↓
Measured by
- Global stores at fiscal year-end5,214reported
Evidence for
- TJX's 7,500-store target implies approximately 0.42 more locations than the Q2 FY2027 store base, before considering established-store growth.[TJX Q2 FY2027 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective is 0.02, and mature retailers cannot indefinitely outgrow the economy without continuing share gains.[Federal Reserve longer-run goals]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating61 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 78% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 6.0% | 0.55 | -10.9% | 1.14B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1% | -0.09 | -132.8% | 1.13B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | 6.9% | 1.18 | 26.5% | 1.13B | -1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | 7.5% | 0.89 | 62.6% | 1.13B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2027 | 9.2% | 0.41 | 548.4% | 1.12B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2027 | 5.4% | 1.55 | 31.3% | 1.12B | -1.0% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The latest available official 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield was 0.0477 on September 3, 2026.
The latest published trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied premium from NYU Stern was 0.0418 on June 1, 2026.
TJX closed at 132.08 dollars on September 4, 2026, the latest completed trading session.
Generated 9/6/2026, 12:01:40 PM · pipeline v1.2.0