TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Below base casePrice is between the bear and base cases.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 6, 2026
What drives TMUS's base case?
base-case thesisT-Mobile is gaining revenue from larger customer relationships, broadband and acquired operations. Its latest results also show profit growing faster than sales, supporting some lasting efficiency gains. Growth nevertheless slows as acquisition benefits fade and the core wireless market becomes harder to expand.
What shapes the assumptions
Service-revenue momentum
Q2 2026 service revenue grew 0.089 after Q2 2025 growth of approximately 0.063
Raises revenue growth
Higher revenue per account
Q2 postpaid ARPA rose from $142.54 in 2024 to $152.91 in 2026
Raises revenue growth
Profit growing faster than sales
Q2 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA grew 0.117 versus total-revenue growth of 0.079
Raises operating margin
Stable network investment program
2026 property-and-equipment purchases are guided to approximately $10 billion
Informs reinvestment
Broadband expansion
Management targets 18 million to 19 million broadband customers by 2030
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 0.8% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 3.1% a year — so the price assumes far less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 19.8% operating margin, against the 23.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 46.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Q2 service-revenue growth
Year-over-year growth in recurring service revenue shows whether customer additions and account spending are expanding the core business.
8.9%
reported2. Q2 postpaid revenue per account
Average monthly postpaid service revenue per account measures pricing, plan mix and the number of services attached to each customer relationship.
$153
reported3. Q2 GAAP operating-profit margin
Operating income divided by total revenue tracks the profitability available before financing costs and taxes.
24.1%
derived4. Q2 property investment per service-revenue dollar
Property-and-equipment purchases divided by service revenue indicate how much recurring revenue must be reinvested in network capacity and infrastructure.
14.2%
derived5. Q2 postpaid net account additions
Net new postpaid billing relationships measure customer-share gains without overstating growth from multiple devices on one account.
277,000
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$92.2B
Diluted shares
1,082,409,636
Net cash
-$75.5B
Bear
low confidence$123.87
IV / share
-34.1% vs $188.02
- Explicit cash flows
- $36.15
- Terminal value
- $157.51
- Net cash
- -$69.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $123.87
127.2% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth5.5% → 3.5% → 2.5% → 2.0% → 1.8%medium
How derived: Starting with total-revenue growth of 0.092 in the first half of 2026, this path assumes acquisition benefits fade quickly and intensifying competition in a saturated wireless market slows growth below management's service-revenue outlook.
Why this confidence: Two reported 2026 quarters ↑, Uncertain acquisition normalization ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 postpaid net account additions declined 0.13 year over year, while postpaid account churn rose to 0.0099.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- First-half 2026 total revenue grew 0.092 and service revenue grew 0.10 year over year.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin20.5%medium
How derived: Starting from the 0.2409 Q2 2026 margin and 0.2070 full-year 2025 margin, this case assumes competition, integration costs and network spending prevent durable improvement beyond the 2025 level.
Why this confidence: Reported GAAP margin history ↑, Temporary integration charges ↓
Measured by
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 GAAP operating-profit margin24.1%derived
- Q2 property investment per service-revenue dollar14.2%derived
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Evidence for
- T-Mobile disclosed 2026 merger, network-restructuring and workforce-transformation costs, while its filing warns that saturation can pressure pricing and margins.[TMUS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA grew 0.117 year over year, faster than total revenue growth of 0.079.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Tax rate26.0%high
How derived: Starting from management's 2026 effective-tax-rate range of 0.25 to 0.26, this case uses the upper endpoint as tax attributes diminish and T-Mobile becomes a fuller cash taxpayer.
Why this confidence: Current management guidance ↑, Future tax-law uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management reiterated a 2026 effective tax rate of 0.25 to 0.26.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management expected only about $1.5 billion of cash taxes in 2026 because accounting tax expense and near-term cash taxes differ.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Starting from approximately $10 billion of guided 2026 property-and-equipment purchases, this case retains 0.40 of after-tax operating profit for network, spectrum, integration and broadband investment because capital intensity has recently risen.
Why this confidence: Current capital-spending guidance ↑, Model rate is broader than reported capital expenditure ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Q2 property-and-equipment purchases rose 0.128 year over year to $2.703 billion, and management guided to approximately $10 billion for 2026.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised 2026 adjusted free-cash-flow guidance to $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion despite the planned capital spending.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Terminal growth1.8%low
How derived: Starting from the Federal Reserve's 0.02 long-run inflation objective, this case uses 0.018 because T-Mobile identifies wireless saturation and intensifying competition as structural constraints.
Why this confidence: Official long-run macroeconomic benchmarks ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
Evidence for
- T-Mobile says industry saturation is likely to intensify competition and pressure pricing or margins.[TMUS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO projects average real U.S. GDP growth of 0.018 from 2027 through 2036, before inflation.[CBO Economic Outlook 2026-2036]· primary
Base
low confidence$236.81
IV / share
+25.9% vs $188.02
- Explicit cash flows
- $51.09
- Terminal value
- $255.51
- Net cash
- -$69.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $236.81
107.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth7.5% → 5.5% → 4.0% → 3.2% → 2.8%medium
How derived: Starting from first-half 2026 total-revenue growth of 0.092 and management's approximately $77 billion 2026 and $80.5 billion to $81.5 billion 2027 service-revenue outlook, this path allows near-term share gains and acquisitions before mature-market growth gradually prevails.
Why this confidence: Current results and multi-year company guidance ↑, Acquisition contribution complicates organic trend ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Price implies: 0.8% vs our 4.6% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Q2 2026 service revenue grew 0.089, supported by postpaid service-revenue growth of 0.126 and ARPA growth of approximately 0.02.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Management's 2027 service-revenue outlook includes about $4 billion from acquisitions, so recent reported growth is not entirely organic.[TMUS 2025 earnings and Capital Markets Day transcript]· primary
Operating margin23.5%medium
How derived: Starting from Q2 2026's 0.2409 margin, this case assumes most digital, AI and acquisition efficiencies are retained but normalizes below the strongest recent quarter.
Why this confidence: Management quantified efficiency opportunity ↑, GAAP and adjusted profitability differ ↓
Measured by
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 GAAP operating-profit margin24.1%derived
- Q2 property investment per service-revenue dollar14.2%derived
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Price implies: 19.8% vs our 23.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management expects digitalization and AI to contribute nearly $3 billion of additional Core Adjusted EBITDA in 2027 relative to 2025.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 2026's reported margin was only 0.1946, demonstrating meaningful quarter-to-quarter volatility around integration and restructuring.[TMUS Q2 2026 investor factbook]· primary
Tax rate25.5%high
How derived: Starting from management's 2026 effective-tax-rate range of 0.25 to 0.26, this case uses its midpoint as a normalized rate.
Why this confidence: Narrow current guidance range ↑, Cash-tax timing differences ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management reiterated a 2026 effective tax rate of 0.25 to 0.26.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Cash taxes were expected to rise from about $1.5 billion in 2026 to about $3.5 billion in 2027, making the timing of cash tax normalization uncertain.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Reinvestment rate30.0%low
How derived: Starting from approximately $10 billion of 2026 property-and-equipment purchases and rising free cash flow, this case assumes 0.30 of after-tax operating profit is retained to sustain network capacity, broadband expansion and integration.
Why this confidence: Capital-spending and free-cash-flow guidance ↑, Spectrum and working-capital timing ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Management guided to approximately $10 billion of 2026 property-and-equipment purchases while continuing investment in wireless, broadband and technology.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The 2025 Form 10-K reported depreciation and amortization of $13.508 billion, exceeding 2025 cash capital expenditure and reducing accounting net investment.[TMUS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.3%low
How derived: Starting from the Federal Reserve's 0.02 long-run inflation objective, this case adds modest real growth from broadband and business services while remaining well below projected nominal economic growth.
Why this confidence: Official inflation and economic-growth references ↑, Perpetual horizon ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
Evidence for
- T-Mobile targets 18 million to 19 million total broadband customers by 2030 and continues to identify business services as a growth opportunity.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- T-Mobile's Form 10-K states that wireless saturation is likely to intensify competition.[TMUS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$364.23
IV / share
+93.7% vs $188.02
- Explicit cash flows
- $63.04
- Terminal value
- $370.98
- Net cash
- -$69.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $364.23
101.9% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth9.0% → 7.0% → 5.5% → 4.5% → 3.5%low
How derived: Starting from first-half 2026 total-revenue growth of 0.092, this path assumes sustained wireless share gains, continued ARPA expansion, successful acquisition integration and faster broadband and business-service scaling.
Why this confidence: Strong current revenue evidence ↑, Requires multiple growth initiatives to succeed ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 postpaid service revenue grew 0.138, while total service revenue grew 0.10.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
- Management identifies an opportunity of more than 20 million network-seeker accounts and targets 18 million to 19 million broadband customers by 2030.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 postpaid net account additions fell to 277000 from 318000 a year earlier.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin25.5%low
How derived: Starting from Q2 2026's 0.2409 margin, this case assumes acquisition synergies, customer self-service, AI and network scale lift the normalized margin above recent quarterly peaks.
Why this confidence: Quantified efficiency plan ↑, Margin exceeds recent full-year results ↓
Measured by
- Q2 postpaid revenue per account$153reported
- Q2 GAAP operating-profit margin24.1%derived
- Q2 property investment per service-revenue dollar14.2%derived
- Q2 postpaid net account additions277,000reported
Evidence for
- Management expects 2027 Core Adjusted EBITDA of $40 billion to $41 billion and nearly $3 billion of incremental contribution from digitalization and AI relative to 2025.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- T-Mobile warns that competitors' network investment and promotions may pressure pricing and margins.[TMUS 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate25.0%high
How derived: Starting from management's 2026 effective-tax-rate range of 0.25 to 0.26, this case uses the lower endpoint and assumes continued effective tax planning.
Why this confidence: Current company guidance ↑, Long-term tax planning and law changes ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Management's current effective-tax-rate guidance begins at 0.25.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The same guidance extends to 0.26, and management expects cash taxes to increase substantially in 2027.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Reinvestment rate24.0%low
How derived: Starting from management's $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion 2026 adjusted free-cash-flow outlook, this case assumes network scale and capital-light fiber partnerships allow growth while retaining only 0.24 of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Company free-cash-flow outlook ↑, Aggressive capital-efficiency assumption ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Management expects adjusted free cash flow of $19.5 billion to $20.5 billion in 2027 and describes fiber joint ventures as a way to expand broadband without funding the entire build.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- Q2 2026 property-and-equipment purchases grew faster than revenue and management still expects approximately $10 billion for the full year.[TMUS Q2 2026 results]· primary
Terminal growth2.8%low
How derived: Starting from the Federal Reserve's 0.02 inflation objective, this case adds 0.0075 of real growth from durable broadband, business and adjacent-service expansion while remaining below long-run nominal GDP growth implied by CBO's outlook.
Why this confidence: Multiple identified growth markets ↑, Perpetual outgrowth of a mature core market ↓
Measured by
- Q2 service-revenue growth8.9%reported
Evidence for
- T-Mobile expects long-duration opportunities across broadband, business services, advertising, financial services and edge connectivity.[TMUS 2026 Capital Markets Day update]· primary
Evidence against
- CBO projects average real GDP growth of only 0.018 after 2026, while T-Mobile identifies its principal wireless market as increasingly saturated.[CBO Economic Outlook 2026-2036]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating46 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 108% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 4.7% | 3.57 | 46.0% | 1.17B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2025 | 6.6% | 3.84 | 85.9% | 1.14B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | 6.9% | 4.05 | 36.4% | 1.13B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 8.9% | 4.28 | 19.8% | 1.13B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 10.6% | 4.17 | 8.7% | 1.1B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 7.9% | 4.43 | 9.4% | 1.08B | -4.6% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The 10-year U.S. Treasury par yield on 2026-09-04 is used as the nominal U.S.-dollar risk-free rate.
Nasdaq's adjusted beta based on two years of weekly TMUS returns is used to measure the stock's market sensitivity.
The latest published trailing-12-month adjusted-payout implied premium as of 2026-07-01 is used rather than a historical-return average.
The regular-session TMUS closing price on 2026-09-04 is used as the current market reference.
Generated 9/6/2026, 2:19:39 AM · pipeline v1.2.0